Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (42) Weak Dem (2) Barely Dem (6) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (1) Weak GOP (2) Strong GOP (47) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Sep. 15	New polls:	FL MI MO
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

Two new polls in Missouri, probably the closest race in the country, show Claire McCaskill catching up to incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO). Rasmussen says she's ahead 45% to 42%; SurveyUSA says she is ahead 48% to 47%. I say its tied.

In Florida, Bill Nelson (D-FL) is way ahead of Katherine Harris, 53% to 38% and in Michigan, Debbie Stabenow is pulling away from Mike Bouchard 54% to 34%. Both of these are safe for the Democrats.

We also have three new House polls, all of them good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans. In IN-02, Joe Donnelley (D) is leading Chris Chocola (R) 52% to 40%. In IN-08, Brad Ellsworth (D) is leading John Hostettler 51% to 45%. In IN-09, Baron Hill (D) is leading Mike Sodrel (R) 53% to 42%. And this is in one of the most rock-ribbed Republican states in the country. I found a site that tracks 30 of the top House races. If you are interested in following the House races across the country, check out Constituent Dynamics.

More problems with voting machines. This time, Prof. Edward Felten at Princeton, one of the world's leading authorities on computer security, showed how you can hack a voting machine. This result is also being reported in the media, for example, here.

On the page listing all 435 House races I have linked all the names to the candidates or to where the candidates should be if a page were present. About 200 pages are missing. Please check this list to see if either of the candidates in your district is absent, and if so, please make them a Wikipedia page (anyone can do it, but it must contain only verifiable facts, not opinions). If you can use the "normal name," such as John_Smith, use John_F._Smith or John_Smith_%28politician%29. If you create a page with a deviant name, let me know. Here are a couple of examples.

If you have a blog and would like an icon that gives your visitors the current Senate score when they visit your page, see the For bloggers above.

Superguru Charlie Cook made an interesting observation the other day. He said that among the Lesser Gurus under 40, the view is common that the Republicans might lose 15-20 seats in the House and will barely hold the Senate. Among Lesser Gurus over 40, there is a much greater feeling that the Democrats may win all the marbles. The difference is that the younger Lesser Gurus have never experienced sweeps like 1994, 1986, and certainly not 1958, where a strong tide washed away an incumbent party. The youngsters just look at it race by race and see a lot of competitive races and find it hard to imagine they would all go the same way. We won't know until after Nov. 7 whether the youngsters or the oldsters have it right this time.

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