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Projected New Senate:     48 Democrats     52 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (4)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Sep. 07 New polls: NJ RSS
  Pickups: Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

The only Senate poll today is Rasmussen's poll of New Jersey, which confirms some other recent polls showing the state senator Tom Kean, Jr. has taken the lead there over appointed incumbent Bob Menendez (D-NJ). If Kean can pull this off, the Democrats have little chance of winning back the Senate, but it is close and has swung back and forth in the past. The state is normally reliably blue though, so we'll see how this develops.

Rasmussen has a surprising poll of the Tennessee Senate race (currently under embargo) that I will report tomorrow.

Fortunately, we have a whole batch of House polls today. House polls are fairly rare because running a poll is expensive and the number of people potentially interested in a single House race is small. However Constitutent Dynamics ran polls of about 1000 people Aug 27-29 in each of a number of competitive House districts. Here are the results. They are continuing to poll, however, and we should have more results tomorrow. For more information about competitive House races, photos of the candidates, maps of the districts, links to the candidates home pages and Wikipedia entries, click on the Hot House races link above or here. An asterisk denotes the incumbent.

Distr Democrat Pct Republican Pct
CO-04 Paccione 41% Musgrave* 47%
CO-07 Perlmutter 48% O'Donnell 46%
CT-02 Courtney 51% Simmons* 45%
CT-04 Farrell 42% Shays* 49%
FL-22 Klein 44% Shaw* 52%
IA-01 Braley 54% Whalen 41%
IA-03 Boswell* 54% Lamberti 43%
IL-06 Duckworth 47% Roskam 46%
KY-04 Lucas 46% Davis* 49%
IL-08 Bean* 48% McSweeney 45%
NC-11 Shuler 50% Taylor* 47%
NM-01 Madrid 45% Wilson* 48%
NV-03 Hafen 43% Porter 51%
OH-06 Wilson 56% Blasdel 40%
PA-06 Murphy 50% Gerlach 45%
PA-08 Murphy 45% Fitzpatrick 53%
PA-10 Carney 50% Sherwood 43%
VA-02 Kellam 51% Drake 43%
WA-08 Burner 49% Reichert 46%
WV-01 Mollohan 52% Wakim 42%

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

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