Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (43) Weak Dem (5) Barely Dem (2) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (2) Weak GOP (2) Strong GOP (46) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Oct. 21	New polls:	CT NE NY
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Senate Polls

With yet two more polls showing him substantially ahead, it looks like incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman, running as an independent and with great support from the Republicans, is going to save his skin. In the Quinnipiac University poll, Lieberman leads the real Democrat, Ned Lamont, 52% to 35% and in the ARG poll it is 49% to 37%.

In New York, Hillary is romping to an easy win and so is Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska. This was really a missed opportunity for the Republicans. They should have fielded a far stronger candidate and they could have at least made Nelson sweat.

House Polls

The only House poll today is CT-02, where incumbent Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) is in a statistical tie with Joe Courtney (D), leading 46% to 44%. This race shows the power of incumbency. The district is the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican. This is a blue district in a blue state and Courtney is an experienced politician (he is a former state representative and candidate for Lt. governor). In an open race, any compentent Democrat could win in a landslide. Probably the same is true of the Nebraska Senate race (above).

Politics

Between industrial-strength gerrymandering and the advantages of incumbency, it is very hard to defeat an unindicted sitting congressman, as noted above. Consequently, a lot of attention has been paid to the 32 open seats in the House. The table below shows where they are, which party won in 2004 and by how much, the current poll leader, who was elected in 2004, why the seat is vacant and who the candidates are now.

Of the 22 seats won by Republicans in 2004, the Democrat now leads in 9, the Republican leads in 6, 2 are ties and there is no data in 5. The Republicans are likely to win all 5 with no data, suggesting they may keep 11-13 of the 22, a loss of 9 to 11.

Of the 9 open Democratic seats, there is no data on 8 of them and the one with data shows the Democrat way ahead. They will probably keep all 9 of them.

The Vermont At Large seat being vacated by Independent Bernie Sanders will most likely be won by Democrat Peter Welch. Adding everything up, the current split of 9 Democrats, 22 Republicans, and 1 Independent is likely to become 19 Democrats, 11 Republicans and 2 seats too close to call, a Democratic pickup of 9-11. The Democrats need 15 pickups to take over the house. The open seats will probably supply 2/3 of these.

Projected New House*:     227 Democrats     206 Republicans     2 Ties

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