Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 49 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (44)
	Weak Dem (5)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (1)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 14	New polls:	MO MT NJ OH TN VA
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Senate Polls

Rasmussen has new polls in six key Senate states today. In Missouri, it is neck and neck, with incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) leading Claire McCaskill (D) 43% to 42%. This race is the closest Senate race in the nation and will go right down to the wire.

In New Jersey, which tends to vote Democratic, incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is hanging onto a tiny lead, 42% to 39% over state senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R). Menendez is the only incumbent Democratic senator who is seriously threatened. All the other incumbent Democratic senators running for reelection are expected to win easily.

Tennessee is still very close, with Rep. Harold Ford. Jr. (D) holding a small lead over former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R), 48% to 46%. Ford has run a brilliant campaign, with TV ads showing him in church and other things that resonate with Tennessee voters. At the start of the year, no one thought that an African American had much chance in this southern state, but he has clung to a small lead in the polls for weeks. With the Democratic candidate ahead in MT, OH, PA, and RI, victories here and in Missouri could give the Democrats control of the Senate.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 12	1	43%	42%		Rasmussen
Montana	Jon Tester	Conrad Burns*	Oct 11	1	49%	42%		Rasmussen
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean	Oct 11	1	42%	39%		Rasmussen
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 12	1	46%	41%		Rasmussen
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 11	1	48%	46%		Rasmussen
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 12	1	46%	49%		Rasmussen

House Polls

No recent polls here, but with all the attention to the House, I am looking for older polls to add to the data base. Here are three of them.

As an aside to why I only use nonpartisan polls, consider two polls taken in NJ-07 at almost the same time. RT Strategies/CD shows incumbent Mike Ferguson (R) leading Linda Stender (D) 48% to 46%. A poll at almost the same time by the Tarrance Group (R) shows Ferguson ahead 48% to 33%. These two results are incompatible. Tarrance's goal is to elect Republicans and this is reflected in the numbers they publish. I doubt that they made up the numbers in the office, but there are many ways to run a poll so it shows what you want it to show, for example, by doing your polling in conservative churches, randomly calling people from lists of gun owners, etc. RT Strategies is run by Thomas Riehle (D) and Lance Tarrance (R). When working together, they balance each other and nobody cooks the books. When working separately to help candidates, all bets are off. In brief, the polling firms that are commissioned by newspapers and TV stations try to report the truth as best they can. The polling firms that work for candidates report what the client wants them to report. The truth doesn't play much of a role here. That's why I just ignore the partisan pollsters.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
AZ-08	Gabrielle Giffords	Randy Graf*	Sep 23	4	52%	34%		Kenski
IA-01	Bruce Braley	Mike Whalen	Sep 13	4	44%	37%		Selzer
NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand	John Sweeney*	Aug 31	3	39%	47%		Global Strategy

Projected New House*: 226 Democrats 205 Republicans 4 Ties

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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-- The Votemaster