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many icons under the map. They contain a wealth of information about this election, past
elections, and political data in general.
Yesterday was trick or treat: trick for the Republicans, treat for the Democrats.
If the current results hold for another week (the chance of which is roughly zero), the
Democrats will pick up 36 seats in the House and take control of that chamber.
The Senate will split 50-50, which
means that if Vice President Dick Cheney agrees to hang around the Senate to break ties,
the Republicans will keep control. Since the Senate is full of lawyers, he can even
continue with his hobby of shooting them while breaking ties. But see the comments below.
We have four different polls in New Jersey today, and all of them have
incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ahead 5-7%. The NRSC is spending $5 million
this week to try to defeat him, but so far, the effect hasn't kicked in.
Part of the problem is that as luck would have it, attacking Menendez requires
advertising in the most expensive media market in the country (NYC) as well
as the fourth most expensive (Philadelphia). They would have preferred, say,
Nebraska, but unfortunately, the only Democratic incumbent who is vulnerable
is Menendez, not Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). At this point, I would say the chance
of knocking off Menendez is pretty small, despite his well-publicized problems.
Another critical Senate race with four polls today is Missouri, but here
it is the Republican incumbent, Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), who is playing defense.
The polls range from Talent leading Democrat Claire McCaskill by 2% to his
trailing her by 3%. All the analysts expect this race to be the closest one
in the Senate.
Another race expected to be very close is Virginia. We have three new
polls there, and all three favor Jim Webb (D) over incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA).
Webb's leads are in the 2-4% range, well within the margin of error.
Allen might yet hang onto his job, but he can forget about running for
President in 2008.
In Tennessee, we have anoher very close race, also with three new polls.
All of them favor former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) over Rep. Harold Ford, Jr,
by margins of 1-8%.
Over in the House, we have 40 new polls, most of them from RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics.
The polls show Democrats gaining strongly, so strongly that I am somewhat skeptical of them.
On the other hand,
is run by Thomas Riehle, a long-time Democratic pollster
and Lance Tarrance, a long-time Republican pollster. It seems unlikely that Tarrance would
allow Riehle to cook the books, so I guess the polls have to be taken at face value.
They have produced a nice
showing their results.
The NY Daily News has a story about congressman John Sweeney knocking his wife around so much that she
called 911 (thanks to Political Wire for finding this).
With Sweeney ( NY-20 ) beating his wife, Don Sherwood ( PA-10 ) choking his mistresss, and Mark Foley
(formerly of FL-16 ) chasing teenage boys, the Republican claim of supporting family values raises
questions of exactly what those values are.
Francis X. Cline has an interesting
in the NYT about congressional hypocrisy today.
Projected New House*: 239 Democrats 195 Republicans 1 Tie
See the details of the
House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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