New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (46) Weak Dem (2) Barely Dem (3) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (1) Weak GOP (1) Strong GOP (47) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Dec. 16

Pickups:

Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia

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News from the Votemaster

CQ Politics has a list of House districts that they expect to be competitive in 2008. Their list is based on incumbent Democrats in districts that voted for Bush in 2004 (60) and incumbent Republicans in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004 (8). Clearly the Republicans have a lot more targets to shoot at. My list (below) is based on the same concept but uses a different metric to determine which way a district leans. Instead of using the 2004 election results, it uses Charle Cook's PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which measures how much more Democratic or Republican a district is than the country as a whole. Also, my list excludes representatives who are in the "wrong" district but who won by 10% or more in 2006. For example, I don't list Chet Edwards (D-TX) in TX-17 even though that is a heavily Republican district because Edwards won in a landslide. He is just too popular to be unseated, even if he is a Democrat.

There hasn't been much news about Sen. Tim Johnson's (D-SD) prognosis. This hasn't stopped the mainstream media from endlessly reporting on what would happen if he resigned. They might as well be reporting on what would happen if pigs could fly. Although Johnson had a cerebral hemorrhage, he hasn't lost his mind as far as we know. Why would he resign and give the Republicans control of the Senate? Many senators have continued in office for years with severe disabilities. For example, Karl Mundt (R-SD) had a stroke in 1969, was completely incapacitated, and continued "serving" in the Senate for 4 more years. He was actually willing to resign, provided that the governor appointed his wife to the Senate, something the governor refused to do. On a more practical note, while the Senate doesn't care too much about the 40 million Americans who have no health insurance, the Senate has an excellent health plan for members. And as a senator, Johnson continues to draw his $165,200 annual salary, whether he attends sessions or not. Why would he resign? The only argument that holds water is that if he cannot function as a senator, the people of South Dakota are not fully represented in the Senate, so he might conceivably pull a Mundt and offer to resign provided that Gov. Mike Rounds appointed Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) in this place. Rounds would probably refuse and Johnson would remain a senator.

Evan Bayh just announced he will not run for President in 2008. He doesn't think he could win. He is probably right. The competition will be fierce.

For a rundown on the 2008 presidential race, click here.

For a rundown on the 2008 Senate races, click here.

For a rundown on the 2008 House races, click here.

Projected New House:     233 Democrats     201 Republicans     1 Tie

WWW www.electoral-vote.com