State-by-State Margins Sept. 30
The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 67% Massachusetts 37% New York 20% Rhode Island 18% Connecticut 15% California 13% Vermont 10% Hawaii 10% |
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Illinois 9% Oregon 7% Delaware* 7% Michigan 6% |
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Ohio 3% Maryland 3% Minnesota 2% Washington 1% Pennsylvania 1% New Jersey 1% |
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37% Wyoming* 36% Nebraska* 31% North Dakota* 29% Idaho 29% Alaska 27% Georgia 25% Oklahoma 23% Kansas 22% Texas 21% South Dakota 19% Montana 18% Alabama 16% Kentucky 15% Indiana 15% Tennessee 14% Arizona 11% |
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 9% South Carolina 9% North Carolina 9% Mississippi 9% Louisiana 8% Colorado 8% Wisconsin 7% Arkansas 7% Virginia 6% Florida 5% |
Barely Bush (<5%)
New Mexico 4% Missouri 4% Iowa 3% Nevada 2% Maine 1% |
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