State-by-State Margins Sept. 18


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 77%
Massachusetts 37%
Rhode Island 28%
Illinois 15%
Delaware* 13%
California 11%
Vermont 10%
New Mexico 10%
Hawaii 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Maryland 9%
New York 8%
Washington 7%
Michigan 7%
Connecticut 7%
New Hampshire 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Minnesota 4%
Maine 4%
Oregon 2%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming* 36%
Nebraska* 31%
Mississippi 31%
Oklahoma 30%
North Dakota* 29%
Idaho 29%
Montana 28%
Alaska 27%
Kansas 25%
Texas 24%
Indiana 24%
Georgia 20%
South Dakota 19%
Kentucky 18%
Louisiana 17%
Arizona 16%
North Carolina 13%
South Carolina 12%
Alabama 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 9%
Tennessee 9%
Missouri 7%
Wisconsin 6%
Florida 6%
Virginia 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
New Jersey 4%
Nevada 4%
Ohio 3%
Pennsylvania 2%
Iowa 2%
Arkansas 2%
Colorado 1%

* No state polls have been conducted in DC and DE. so the 2000 results are used. DC and DE are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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