Mathematical Model: Kerry 296 Bush 242
This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.
- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)