Mathematical Model:   Kerry 296   Bush 242

Least squares prediction
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (130)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (98)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (68)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (0)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (69)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (64)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (109)
Needed to win: 270
Oct. 19

This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

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