State-by-State Margins Oct. 28


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 21%
Rhode Island 20%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Illinois 12%
Maine 11%
Maryland 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
New Hampshire 9%
Connecticut 9%
California 9%
Delaware 7%
Oregon 6%
Washington 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Wisconsin 4%
Colorado 4%
Pennsylvania 3%
Minnesota 3%
Ohio 1%
New Jersey 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 33%
Nebraska 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Louisiana 26%
Texas 23%
South Dakota 22%
Montana 21%
North Dakota 20%
Kansas 19%
South Carolina 18%
Kentucky 17%
Georgia 17%
Indiana 16%
Tennessee 12%
Alabama 12%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
North Carolina 9%
Mississippi 9%
Nevada 7%
Missouri 7%
Virginia 6%
Arkansas 6%
Arizona 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
New Mexico 4%
West Virginia 3%
Florida 2%
Hawaii 1%
States that are exactly tied: Iowa Michigan
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