State-by-State Margins May 28


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
California 12%
Connecticut 18%
Delaware* 13%
D.C.* 80%
Hawaii* 19%
Maine 13%
Massachusetts 24%
New Hampshire 10%
New York 19%
Rhode Island 22%
Vermont 15%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Illinois 5%
Maryland 5%
Michigan 9%
Minnesota 9%
New Mexico 5%
Oregon 6%
Washington 9%
Wisconsin 8%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Florida 1%
Iowa 4%
Missouri 3%
Nevada 3%
New Jersey 3%
Ohio 4%
Pennsylvania 3%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Alabama 25%
Alaska* 31%
Idaho* 39%
Indiana 21%
Kansas 18%
Louisiana 19%
Mississippi* 17%
Montana 32%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Oklahoma 19%
South Dakota 16%
Texas 29%
Utah 45%
Virginia 18%
Wyoming* 40%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Arizona 5%
Colorado 9%
Kentucky 6%
North Carolina 7%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Arkansas 4%
Georgia 3%
South Carolina 2%
Tennessee 2%
West Virginia 2%

* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DL, HI, ID, MS, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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