State-by-State Margins May 24
The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
California 10% Connecticut 18% Delaware* 13% D.C.* 80% Hawaii* 19% Maine 13% Massachusetts 24% Minnesota 12% New York 19% Rhode Island 22% Vermont 15% |
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Illinois 5% Maryland 5% Ohio 7% Pennsylvania 5% |
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Iowa 1% New Hampshire 4% New Jersey 3% New Mexico 1% Oregon 2% Washington 4% |
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Alabama 25% Alaska* 31% Idaho* 39% Indiana 21% Kansas 18% Kentucky 12% Louisiana 14% Mississippi* 17% Missouri 11% Montana 32% Nebraska* 29% Nevada 11% North Dakota* 28% Oklahoma 19% South Dakota 14% Tennessee 11% Texas 29% Utah 45% Virginia 18% Wisconsin 12% Wyoming* 40% |
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Arizona 8% Arkansas 8% Colorado 9% North Carolina 7% |
Barely Bush (<5%)
Florida 1% Georgia 3% Michigan 4% South Carolina 2% West Virginia 4% |
* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DL, HI, ID, MS, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.
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