State-by-State Margins June 29
The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80% Massachusetts 24% Rhode Island 22% New York 19% Maine 19% Hawaii* 19% Vermont 15% Maryland 14% Illinois 13% Delaware* 13% California 12% Connecticut 10% |
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 7% Oregon 7% New Mexico 7% Ohio 6% New Jersey 6% Minnesota 5% |
Barely Kerry (<5%)
New Hampshire 3% Iowa 2% Arkansas 2% |
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45% Wyoming* 40% Mississippi* 31% Alaska* 31% Idaho* 30% Nebraska* 29% North Dakota* 28% Indiana 21% Texas 20% Montana 20% Oklahoma 19% Alabama 19% Tennessee 18% Kansas 18% Georgia 17% South Dakota 16% Kentucky 13% South Carolina 10% |
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 6% North Carolina 6% Nevada 6% Louisiana 6% Colorado 5% |
Barely Bush (<5%)
Wisconsin 4% Arizona 3% Virginia 2% Pennsylvania 2% Michigan 2% Missouri 1% |
* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.
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