State-by-State Margins June 19


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80%
Massachusetts 24%
Rhode Island 22%
New York 19%
Maine 19%
Hawaii* 19%
Vermont 15%
Maryland 14%
Illinois 13%
Delaware* 13%
California 12%
Connecticut 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Minnesota 7%
Oregon 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Florida 4%
West Virginia 3%
Ohio 3%
New Jersey 3%
Nevada 3%
Michigan 2%
Washington 1%
Pennsylvania 1%
Iowa 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Idaho* 39%
Alaska* 31%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Indiana 21%
Texas 20%
Montana 20%
Oklahoma 19%
Alabama 19%
Kansas 18%
Mississippi* 17%
Georgia 17%
South Dakota 16%
Kentucky 13%
Missouri 11%
South Carolina 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Tennessee 8%
Arkansas 8%
North Carolina 7%
Louisiana 6%
Colorado 5%
Arizona 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Wisconsin 2%
Virginia 2%
New Mexico 1%

* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DL, HI, ID, MS, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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