State-by-State Margins July 13


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80%
Massachusetts 29%
New York 28%
Rhode Island 22%
Hawaii* 19%
Connecticut 18%
Illinois 16%
Vermont 15%
Maryland 14%
Delaware* 13%
New Jersey 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 8%
California 8%
Oregon 7%
New Mexico 7%
Pennsylvania 5%
Minnesota 5%
Michigan 5%
Florida 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Iowa 4%
New Hampshire 3%
Nevada 3%
Arkansas 2%
Maine 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Oklahoma 32%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Alaska 23%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Texas 18%
Tennessee 18%
South Dakota 16%
Indiana 16%
South Carolina 15%
Alabama 14%
Kentucky 13%
Arizona 12%
Georgia 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
North Carolina 7%
West Virginia 6%
Louisiana 6%
Virginia 5%
Colorado 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Wisconsin 4%
Ohio 4%
Missouri 2%

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

Back to the main page Previous report

If you like this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.


www.overseasvoter.com