State-by-State Margins July 6
The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80% Massachusetts 24% Rhode Island 22% New York 19% Hawaii* 19% Connecticut 18% Vermont 15% Maryland 14% California 14% Illinois 13% Delaware* 13% |
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Florida 8% Oregon 7% New Mexico 7% New Jersey 6% Minnesota 5% |
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Michigan 4% New Hampshire 3% Nevada 3% Maine 3% Iowa 2% Arkansas 2% Ohio 1% |
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45% Wyoming* 40% Mississippi* 31% Alaska* 31% Idaho* 30% Nebraska* 29% North Dakota* 28% Texas 20% Montana 20% Kansas 20% Oklahoma 19% Alabama 19% Tennessee 18% Georgia 17% South Dakota 16% Indiana 16% South Carolina 15% Kentucky 13% Arizona 12% |
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 6% North Carolina 6% Louisiana 6% Colorado 5% |
Barely Bush (<5%)
Wisconsin 4% Virginia 2% Pennsylvania 2% Missouri 1% |
* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DE, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.
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