State-by-State Margins July 6


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80%
Massachusetts 24%
Rhode Island 22%
New York 19%
Hawaii* 19%
Connecticut 18%
Vermont 15%
Maryland 14%
California 14%
Illinois 13%
Delaware* 13%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Florida 8%
Oregon 7%
New Mexico 7%
New Jersey 6%
Minnesota 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Michigan 4%
New Hampshire 3%
Nevada 3%
Maine 3%
Iowa 2%
Arkansas 2%
Ohio 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi* 31%
Alaska* 31%
Idaho* 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Texas 20%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Oklahoma 19%
Alabama 19%
Tennessee 18%
Georgia 17%
South Dakota 16%
Indiana 16%
South Carolina 15%
Kentucky 13%
Arizona 12%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 6%
North Carolina 6%
Louisiana 6%
Colorado 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Wisconsin 4%
Virginia 2%
Pennsylvania 2%
Missouri 1%

* No state polls have been conducted in AK, DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DE, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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