Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 298   Bush 220

Data in Excel .csv format Next report   Strong Kerry (125) Weak Kerry (122) Barely Kerry (51) Exactly tied (20) Barely Bush (65) Weak Bush (39) Strong Bush (116) Needed to win: 270

Sept. 1 projection of the final map

This map is based on the projections from the linear regression lines on the state polls. The data are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously until October. Because the Kerry and Bush curves have separate regression lines, in some cases due to noise, the sum is more than 100%. Also, the Nader factor has to be accounted for. In 2000, Nader polled 5% just before the election but got 2.7% of the vote. This time he will probably get substantially less, maybe 1% at best. The Libertarian, Constitution, and other parties together might also get 1%. To account for all these factors, in states where Nader is on the ballot, he is simply assumed to get 1% and the minor parties also 1%. Where Nader is not on the ballot, the minor parties are assumed to get 1% so Bush + Kerry add to 99%.

If a state looks fishy, click on it to see the data and the regression line. When there are many recent polls, the regression lines are fairly accurate. However, when there are hardly any polls, the lines are much less accurate. Please do NOT send me e-mail saying you do not like some particular state. Instead, call a talk radio program in that state and urge them to run another poll there.