Least Squares Projection:
Kerry 239
Bush 243
Oct. 31 projection of the final map 

This map is based on the projections from the least
squares linear regression lines on the state polls. Starting Oct. 17, the lookback
window was changed from 90 days to 30 days on the grounds that polls taken before
the DNC don't mean very much now.
The data are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously. The current
map is probably a better predictor.
Because the Kerry and Bush curves have separate regression lines, in some cases due to noise, the sum
is more than 100%. Also, the Nader factor has to be accounted for. In 2000, Nader polled
5% just before the election but got 2.7% of the vote. This time he will probably get
substantially less, maybe 1% at best. The Libertarian, Constitution, and other parties
together might also get 1%. To account for all these factors, in states where Nader is
on the ballot, he is simply assumed to get 1% and the minor parties also 1%. Where Nader
is not on the ballot, the minor parties are assumed to get 1% so Bush + Kerry add to 99%.
Back to the main page.
