Least Squares Projection:   Kerry 306   Bush 200

 
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (114)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (111)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (81)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (32)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (43)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (10)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (147)
Needed to win: 270
Oct. 21 projection of the final map RSS

This map is based on the projections from the least squares linear regression lines on the state polls. Starting Oct. 17, the lookback window was changed from 90 days to 30 days on the grounds that polls taken before the DNC don't mean very much now. The data are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously. The current map is probably a better predictor. Because the Kerry and Bush curves have separate regression lines, in some cases due to noise, the sum is more than 100%. Also, the Nader factor has to be accounted for. In 2000, Nader polled 5% just before the election but got 2.7% of the vote. This time he will probably get substantially less, maybe 1% at best. The Libertarian, Constitution, and other parties together might also get 1%. To account for all these factors, in states where Nader is on the ballot, he is simply assumed to get 1% and the minor parties also 1%. Where Nader is not on the ballot, the minor parties are assumed to get 1% so Bush + Kerry add to 99%.

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