Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 221
Bush 276
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 65%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 2%
Source: Gallup-4 (Sep 20)
2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%, Nader 1.6%
Washington (11 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 22)
2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Nader 4.1%
Virginia (13 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 1%
Source: Mason-Dixon-4 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%, Nader 2.2%
Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 4%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 12)
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%
Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 27%
Bush: 64%
Nader: 4%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%
Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 58%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Sep 21)
2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 55%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Sep 22)
2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 12)
2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%, Nader 0.0%
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 24)
2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 4%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Sep 20)
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%, Nader 2.1%
Oregon (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%
Source: Davis, Hibbits-4 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 52%
Source: Basswood Res. (R)-1 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%
Ohio (20 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 2%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%, Nader 2.5%
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 10)
2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%, Nader 3.3%
North Carolina (15 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 52%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%
New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 31%
Source: Siena College-4 (Sep 26)
2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-2 (Sep 16)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Fairleigh Dickinson-6 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 2%
Source: Lake Snell Perry (D) (Sep 23)
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%
Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 2%
Source: Belden, Russenello-9 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 61%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 12)
2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%
Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 22)
2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%, Nader 5.9%
Missouri (11 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 50%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 26)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 17)
2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%, Nader 5.2%
Michigan (17 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 1%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 0%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%
Maryland (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 45%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%
Maine (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 39%
Nader: 4%
Source: Strategic Marketing-5 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group-5 (Sep 21)
2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 53%
Nader: 3%
Source: Bluegrass Poll (Sep 15)
2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%, Nader 1.5%
Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 35%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 18)
2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%, Nader 3.4%
Iowa (7 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 49%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%
Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 54%
Source: American Res. Group-5 (Sep 20)
2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%
Illinois (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 40%
Source: Market Shares-4 (Sep 20)
2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%
Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 59%
Nader: 3%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 10)
2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 2.5%
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 4%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%, Nader 5.9%
Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%, Nader 0.0%
Florida (27 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 2%
Source: Gallup-4 (Sep 27)
2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%, Nader 1.6%
D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%
Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West Chester Univ.-4 (Sep 25)
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac Univ.-3 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%
Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 2%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Sep 23)
2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%
California (55 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 40%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey USA (Sep 26)
2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%
Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 53%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Sep 29)
2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%
Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 5%
Source: American Res. Group (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%
Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 56%
Source: Rasmussen-14 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%
Previous report
Next report
Strong Kerry (112)
Weak Kerry (52)
Barely Kerry (57)
Exactly tied (41)
Barely Bush (28)
Weak Bush (118)
Strong Bush (130)
Needed to win: 270
Oct. 1
New polls: AL AZ AR CT FL GA IA ME MD MI MN NV NJ NC OH OK OR PA VA WI
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