Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 252
Bush 279
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29.1%
Bush: 69.0%
Nader: 1.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 49.8%
Bush: 49.4%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 43.2%
Bush: 56.1%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%, Nader 1.6%
Washington (11 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 53.0%
Bush: 45.7%
Nader: 0.7%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Nader 4.1%
Virginia (13 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 45.3%
Bush: 54.0%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%
Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 59.1%
Bush: 38.9%
Nader: 1.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%
Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 26.4%
Bush: 71.1%
Nader: 1.3%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%
Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38.3%
Bush: 61.2%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 42.5%
Bush: 56.8%
Nader: 0.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%, Nader 1.0%
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38.4%
Bush: 59.9%
Nader: 1.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%, Nader 0.0%
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40.8%
Bush: 58.0%
Nader: 0.3%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%, Nader 1.5%
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 59.5%
Bush: 38.9%
Nader: 1.0%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 50.8%
Bush: 48.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%
Oregon (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 51.5%
Bush: 47.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 34.4%
Bush: 65.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%
Ohio (20 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 48.5%
Bush: 51.0%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 35.5%
Bush: 62.9%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%
North Carolina (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 43.5%
Bush: 56.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%
New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 57.8%
Bush: 40.5%
Nader: 1.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader 3.6%
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 48.9%
Bush: 50.0%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 52.7%
Bush: 46.5%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 50.3%
Bush: 49.0%
Nader: 0.7%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%
Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47.9%
Bush: 50.5%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 32.1%
Bush: 66.6%
Nader: 0.7%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%
Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 38.4%
Bush: 59.2%
Nader: 1.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%, Nader 5.9%
Missouri (11 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 46.1%
Bush: 53.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39.5%
Bush: 59.8%
Nader: 0.3%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 51.1%
Bush: 47.6%
Nader: 0.7%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%, Nader 5.2%
Michigan (17 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 51.2%
Bush: 47.8%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 62.1%
Bush: 37.0%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%
Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55.7%
Bush: 43.3%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%, Nader 2.7%
Maine (4 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 53.1%
Bush: 45.0%
Nader: 1.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 42.2%
Bush: 56.8%
Nader: 0.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39.7%
Bush: 59.5%
Nader: 0.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%, Nader 1.5%
Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36.5%
Bush: 62.2%
Nader: 0.8%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%, Nader 3.4%
Iowa (7 EVs)
No Data
Kerry: 49.2%
Bush: 50.1%
Nader: 0.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%, Nader 2.2%
Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39.2%
Bush: 60.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%
Illinois (21 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 54.7%
Bush: 44.7%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%
Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30.4%
Bush: 68.5%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 54.0%
Bush: 45.3%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%
Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 41.4%
Bush: 58.1%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%
Florida (27 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 47.1%
Bush: 52.1%
Nader: 0.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%, Nader 1.6%
D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 89.5%
Bush: 9.3%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%
Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 53.3%
Bush: 45.8%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 54.3%
Bush: 44.0%
Nader: 0.8%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%
Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 46.3%
Bush: 52.5%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%
California (55 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 54.6%
Bush: 44.3%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44.5%
Bush: 54.3%
Nader: 0.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%, Nader 1.5%
Arizona (10 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 44.5%
Bush: 54.9%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%
Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 35.0%
Bush: 61.9%
Nader: 1.6%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%
Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36.8%
Bush: 62.5%
Nader: 0.4%
Source: ()
2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%, Nader 1.1%
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Strong Kerry (146)
Weak Kerry (37)
Barely Kerry (69)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely Bush (30)
Weak Bush (66)
Strong Bush (183)
Needed to win: 270
Nov. 5
Preliminary election results
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