State-by-State Margins Aug. 12


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 77%
Massachusetts 26%
Rhode Island 24%
New York 22%
New Jersey 20%
Connecticut 18%
Vermont 15%
Illinois 15%
Maryland 14%
Delaware* 13%
California 11%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 8%
Pennsylvania 8%
New Mexico 7%
New Hampshire 7%
Michigan 7%
Hawaii 7%
Florida 7%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
West Virginia 4%
Oregon 4%
Maine 4%
Minnesota 2%
Iowa 2%
Wisconsin 1%
Missouri 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Alaska 23%
Alabama 22%
Oklahoma 20%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Indiana 19%
Texas 18%
South Dakota 16%
Louisiana 16%
Georgia 11%
Kentucky 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
South Carolina 7%
North Carolina 7%
Ohio 5%
Colorado 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 3%
Arizona 3%
Tennessee 2%
Arkansas 2%
Nevada 1%

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC and DE are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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