Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 327
Bush 211
| Aug. 17 |
New polls: KY NC |
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News from the Votemaster
The big news today is in Colorado.
The Colorado secretary of state,
Donetta Davidson,
has
certified that the petition to change the
way Colorado allocates its electors has gathered
enough signatures to be on the ballot.
On Nov. 2, Colorado voters will be
asked if they approve a change to the state
constitution that divides its nine votes in the electoral
college in direct proportion to the popular vote. If it
fails, George Bush will most likely get all nine electoral
votes. If it passes, probably Bush will get five electoral
votes, Kerry will get four, and the Supreme Court will get
a world-class headache. Badly polarized as it is, the Court
probably does not want to decide another election.
The legal issue will hinge on the second sentence of Article II,
Section 1 of the U.S. constitution, which reads:
"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct,
a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and
Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress..."
Nothing forbids the state legislature from appointing the electors
any way it wants to. Maine and Nebraska allocate one elector for
each congressional district won plus two for winning state wide.
In 1876, the Colorado legislature decided to save the taxpayers
money and didn't bother having an election at all; it just
appointed its three electors itself. The issue the Supreme Court may
have to decide in 2004 is whether a state constitution can mandate how
electors are apportioned, thus bypassing the state legislature. If the
Court wants to veto the state constitution, it can interpret
the U.S. constitution literally and say: "Nope. the legislature
didn't approve; doesn't count." But on many other occasions the
Court has looked for the intent of the founding fathers (founding
parents?) and it is clear they meant the states could choose their
electors any way they wanted to. In 1789 nobody envisioned statewide
referenda on constitutional matters. If you were planning to stay up
on election night until the presidential race is decided, bring
lots of food and drink; it may take weeks again.
By comparison with these great constitutional issues, Bush's
17% lead in a new Survey USA poll in Kentucky is small potatoes.
And his 6% lead in a new North Carolina poll is hardly worth mentioning at all.
But Electoral Vote Predictor hates to miss a poll, so here they are.
No change in the electoral college, however. Kerry maintains his
large lead there. But a lot can happen between now and November.
To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right.
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-- The votemaster
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