For Every Action...

...There is, of course, an equal and opposite reaction. Given Donald Trump's bull-in-a-china-shop approach to governance, wherein the goal is to produce as much short-term thunder as is possible, even at the expense of long-term success, a whole bunch of blowback was inevitable. And in the last 48 hours or so, there's been a lot of it:

• Unfrozen: We wondered if it's actually legal for Trump to put a freeze on the disbursement of funds already appropriated by Congress, and it turns out we're not the only ones who have doubts. A bunch of nonprofit groups filed a suit, and a group of 20 blue-state AGs filed another. Yesterday, minutes before the freeze was to take effect, U.S. District Judge Loren L. AliKhan imposed a stay that lasts until Monday. She will hear oral arguments then, and may well extend the stay at that time.
  
  In the end, the real game of the Trump administration is to get this before the Supreme Court, and to get the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 declared unconstitutional, which would give Trump near-unlimited authority to spend federal funds as he sees fit. So, while the President may have lost the battle yesterday, and may lose again next week, he will hold out hope that he can win the war.
  
  
• Transphobia: Several of Trump's executive orders very clearly discriminate against trans Americans. Since 2020, thanks to the Supreme Court's decision in Bostock v. Clayton County, sexual identity is a protected class. It did not take civil rights lawyers long to put those two things together; there is now a lawsuit from a trans woman who is scheduled to be moved to a men's prison, and another one from six current trans service members and two other trans individuals who were planning to enlist.
  
  
• EEOC: Late Monday, Trump once again fired some appointees without following the rules. In this case it was two Democratic commissioners on the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. They did not have time to get their lawsuits filed yesterday, but the suits are expected today or tomorrow.
  
  
• Mail Model: As we have mentioned once or twice, the Office of Personnel Management has set up a new e-mail system wherein every federal employee can be e-mailed at the same time. Two anonymous federal employees have filed suit, arguing that being added to an e-mail list against their will violates their privacy rights.

In short, Trump is going to keep the federal court system very, very busy. And the more lawsuits there are, the longer it will take for any one of them to get resolved, thus making it harder for him to implement his plans (and see below). Didn't anyone at Project 2025 think of this? (Z)

The Colombian (Trade) War, Redux

Yesterday's item about the Colombia kerfuffle was the last one we wrote yesterday, at the end of a very long day. We failed to squeeze some important nuance in there (which readers took us to task for), and there's also some new information. So, we are going to revisit the story today.

Recall that Colombian president Gustavo Petro consistently took the position that he was willing to accept the 160 or so returnees in question, but that he wanted them to be treated humanely. There was no real reason to doubt this; Petro accepted returnees from the Biden administration, which treated people humanely, transporting them on standard aircraft. Trump's preference is for military planes, usually C-17s. This option is considerably more expensive for the federal government, but also is more unpleasant for the immigrant passengers, while also making for much more impressive photo-ops. So, it's well worth it to Trump (after all, it's not his money).

Once the White House and the Colombian government had resolved the impasse, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a statement in which she decreed that Petro had agreed to "all of President Trump's terms." This is not exactly true. Petro actually got what he wanted, in terms of more humane treatment of returnees. He offered his own plane(s) to guarantee that for the current group of returnees, while the White House said that civilian planes would be used for the missions in the future, when practicable. It also remains the case that the administration has de facto been warned that there are limits to how much Colombia, Mexico and other nations will cooperate.

Another problem for Trump is that he either doesn't really understand, or just doesn't care about, how international diplomacy works. He may not be aware of it, but Colombia is the United States' closest ally in South America. The U.S. relies on that nation a great deal when it comes to resisting hostile authoritarian governments (e.g., Venezuela), and also in helping to clamp down on the international drug trade. The time may come that the White House will want help with these things, and the Petro administration may not be so amenable.

And it gets worse. The nations of Latin America have already taken notice of what Trump did to Colombia (even if it didn't last long), and also his talk about the Panama Canal, and they recognize that they better get to work on working together before it's too late. Tomorrow, in fact, they will meet for an emergency summit to discuss matters of mutual interest and concern. The possibility of some sort of ASEAN-style organization, meant to resist American encroachments, is a real possibility. And while Canada is rather less warm and less Latin than Mexico or Colombia, that nation might get involved, too.

If the nations of Latin America (with or without the 'Nades) start working together, they could blunt the worst impacts of Trumpy tariffs on their economies, while also sending some highly focused pain back in the United States' direction. Americans import over $1 trillion in goods each year from Latin America, and many nations' products are very specific, and very tough to replace. That includes berries from Peru, copper from Chile, textiles from Guatemala, medical equipment from the Dominican Republic and, of course, coffee and cut flowers from Colombia. In a pretty clear proof of concept, the trade war with Colombia lasted less than 12 hours, and yet Arabica prices shot up in response.

And finally, there is the threat looming in the background that we mentioned yesterday, namely China. If the U.S. is deemed an unreliable trade partner, some (or many) nations in Latin America may recalibrate and start doing business with Xi Jinping & Co. That's a big change to make, but if it IS made, then it's also a big change to reverse.

In short, Trump may be able to impose his will on the executive branch, and may be able to impose his will on Congress, but foreign nations, even those with a fraction of the power of the United States, are much tougher. Diplomacy is pretty much always very difficult, as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and about 40 of their predecessors could tell you. What makes Trump different, beyond his being a rather less capable diplomat than most other presidents, is that he insists on turning foreign affairs into reality TV. So, the ugly sausage-making (well, in Latin America, the ugly chorizo-making) is on full display. Every other president knew that it's way better to do that stuff on the down-low, and then ideally to bring the American public into the loop only after the chorizo has been put in casings, barbecued, sauced, and served up on some soft Marraqueta rolls, or maybe some nice arepas. Trump wants to loop people in before the pork has even hit the grinder. (Z)

Trump Offers Severance to Millions of Federal Employees

Donald Trump really, really wants to get rid of a large chunk of the federal bureaucracy. Maybe he wants to replace them with loyalists, maybe he wants to farm the jobs out to private businesses that just so happened to contribute to his election campaign and his inauguration, maybe both.

Despite his hamfisted approach to most things, however, Trump clearly knows that getting rid of entrenched federal employees is a very tough hill to climb, and that he could easily spend his entire term trying to make it happen in court, without actually succeeding (or even coming to a resolution). This being the case, the White House made a big announcement yesterday: Federal employees who agree to resign immediately will be paid through the end of September. This is described as a "deferred resignation."

If "deferred resignation" sounds a bit like NewSpeak to you, you might be on the right track. Similarly, the option to quit is described, in the e-mail that was sent to federal employees, as "voluntary." Technically true, but the same e-mail also said: "At this time, we cannot give you full assurance regarding the certainty of your position or agency..." In other words, "You might just want to quit while the quitting is good, if you know what's best for you."

The deadline for a decision is February 6, and the White House guesses that between 5% and 10% of federal employees will take the deal. Of course, some percentage of those would have quit anyhow—the average length of service in a federal government job is about 13.5 years, which implies a turnover rate of around 7%. So, the new program actually increases the cost of getting rid of some meaningful number of soon-to-quit folks.

And while we suggest in the opening paragraph that Trump's goal is to replace employees he does not regard as useful to him with employees who are useful (either by doing his bidding, or by pleasing the donor class), it's possible that the game here, at least in part, is not to replace them at all. That would be consistent with the plans of Elon Musk and DOGE. And it's worth noting that Musk loyalists have taken over the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

If Trump is indeed going to slash the federal workforce, well, it should be noted that the number of federal employees has been basically steady since 1970, while the population of the U.S. has more than doubled. It is already something of a cliché that you can't get the IRS or the SSA on the phone when you really need to. The harder these things get, and the longer it takes to secure things like passports, the less happy voters will be. It's all good and well to say "cut the budget," but it's many orders of magnitude harder to do it without getting a whole bunch of blowback. (Z)

Kill the Lawyers

"The first thing we do is, let's kill all the lawyers." That's Dick the Butcher, from Act IV, Scene II of Henry VI, Part II (not to be confused with Act VI, Scene II of Henry IV, Part II).

Much like the effort to overturn the 2020 election results and stage a coup to keep Donald Trump in power, there's a multi-pronged strategy underway to politicize the DOJ and sideline, harass, threaten and intimidate career federal prosecutors, while installing political cronies in key positions normally occupied by nonpartisan officials (see above).

To be sure, each administration tends to put in place an attorney general and deputy AG who will direct resources toward the new administration's stated priorities. U.S. Attorneys are sometimes (but not always) replaced. These positions are politically appointed and reflect the president's general goals. But career prosecutors are not political appointees and work across administrations. They are accustomed to some shifting of their assignments as enforcement efforts are stepped up in some areas and decreased in others. That is legal and acceptable. What is not legal is mass reassignments and mass firings. The law prohibits reassigning staff within 120 days of a new AG. And civil service laws prohibit firing civil servants, like career prosecutors, without cause.

Against that backdrop, the Trump administration has taken several drastic and dangerous steps to hollow out and weaken the DOJ and FBI. What we're witnessing is the actual weaponization and politicization of the DOJ to make it a tool of retribution and self-interest instead of one for the public good, and we're getting a crash course in how that's accomplished. To wit:

1. Reassignment of career prosecutors and FBI agents to diminished roles to force them out. For example, National Security Division prosecutor George Toscas, the DOJ's foremost expert on terrorism prosecutions, and Bruce Schwartz, international legal relations expert, are now assigned to immigration roundups.
   
   
2. Mass firings of career prosecutors, including those previously assigned to Jack Smith's investigations, in violation of civil service protections. That means no more Sally Yates-types to refuse illegal orders or point out pesky ethical rules or guardrails against political influence.
   
   
3. Firings of inspectors general who are the watchdogs of federal agencies and whose job is to report on and rein in wrongdoing and fraud, waste and abuse. This was also done without the required notice to Congress.
   
   
4. Emil Bove (Trump's personal attorney in the federal and New York cases), the new deputy AG, issued an order threatening to prosecute local law enforcement who don't carry out federal immigration law, which is a violation of the anti-commandeering doctrine in the Constitution under Prince v. U.S. (states can't be required to carry out federal programs) and other Supreme Court precedent.
   
   
5. Raiding the FBI's joint terrorism task force to reassign veteran agents to a new anti-immigration task force (Sanctuary Cities Enforcement Working Group) and diverting the resources of the terrorism task force to this effort, making the country more vulnerable to a terrorist attack as ISIS re-emerges and radicalizes Americans inside the country, as evidenced by the attack in New Orleans by a U.S. citizen. Andy McCabe, former FBI deputy director, in the podcast Unjustified, said: "To drain resources away from the JTTF mission whose number one priority is preventing an act of terrorism in the U.S. and pushing that into cashing a check on a campaign promise about immigration is wildly irresponsible."
   
   
6. Acting U.S. attorney for D.C., Ed Martin, an organizer of the "Stop the Steal" movement who was present at the Capitol on Jan. 6, is not only dismissing all pending Jan. 6 cases but has launched an "investigation" into all prosecutors who handled those cases, ostensibly because some charges were dropped after the Supreme Court held that one conspiracy charge was not legally supported against some rioters.
   
   
7. In addition to terrorizing immigrant communities, Trump has declared open season on abortion clinics by pardoning criminals jailed for violent attacks on providers and patients. He ordered the DOJ to stop enforcing the FACE Act and other laws that protect clinics from attacks, pledged to go after buffer laws that keep protesters a certain distance from clinics as first amendment violations, and snuck in language in the anti-trans executive order defining a "person... at conception" to create "fetal personhood" rights.
   
   
8. DOJ leadership is freezing pending cases in the civil rights division regarding negotiated consent decrees with police departments in Minneapolis, Memphis, and Louisville.

For those keeping score, Trump has released violent domestic terrorists from prison and cut staff from the unit that can go after those people, so that his administration might target construction workers, food handlers, and pregnant women. With the rest of these moves, he has pulled down the wall separating the DOJ from the White House and is now openly ordering the nation's foremost law enforcement department to do his bidding. This is precisely how the rule of law is destroyed and democracy dismantled. (L)

[Ed. Note: We get questions every week as to the identity of (L). If you are wondering, see here for an explanation.]

Peters Will Call It a Career

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who is 66 years old and is serving his second term in the upper chamber, has decided that he's had his fill of life as a politician. And so, he announced yesterday that he will not stand for reelection in 2026.

Undoubtedly, this news will not make the DSCC happy, since they need to hold every seat in the midterms, and incumbents have much better odds than non-incumbents. That said, there's never a good time for an incumbent to call it a career, particularly in a purple state like Michigan. And if Peters is going to exit anyhow, then doing it during an election that could very plausibly be a blue wave is as good a bad time as any.

The Democratic bench in Michigan is very deep, and so the Party should not have trouble coming up with a good candidate. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. Debbie Dingell (both D-MI) have both announced already that they are out. However, Pete Buttigieg and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-MI) are both interested; either would generate a lot of enthusiasm from the base. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) might jump in, too, though she would certainly not be the DSCC's preferred pick. Undoubtedly, Tlaib would do very well in Dearborn, but she's a bit too lefty for Michigan as a whole.

As to the Republican bench, it is less deep. There are numerous high-profile candidates, but they all have serious potential weaknesses. Rep. John James (R-MI) might be the GOP's best candidate, but he's already lost two Senate races, and maybe Michiganders aren't buying what he's selling. Tudor Dixon is likely to jump in, but she's kinda whackadoodle (think Kari Lake), and she got trounced in the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election by 11 points. Ronna Romney McDaniel is a native, and she certainly has name recognition, though she hasn't actually expressed interest yet, and she might simultaneously be too MAGA for the Never Trump crowd, and yet not Trumpy enough for the MAGA crowd. There is also some support for Tony Dungy, who is Black, conservative, known for his career in the NFL, endowed with several skeletons in his closet, and not actually a resident of Michigan anymore (and hasn't been in a long time). Perhaps this profile sounds familiar (Hint: Erschelhay Alkerway).

This seat will undoubtedly be near the top of all the "most competitive Senate seat" lists for 2026. And while that's not wrong, per se, it's mostly a reflection of the fact that not many seats up next year are plausibly competitive. If you consider: (1) that the Democratic bench in Michigan is stronger, (2) midterm elections generally produce adverse results for the party in the White House, and (3) that Michigan, while purple, hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1994, then you have to rate the Democrats to be solid favorites, even sans their incumbent senator. (Z)

Florida Likely to Replace House Trumpers with Different Trumpers

Matt Gaetz was very Trumpy when he was representing FL-01 in Congress. Now, he works for an obscure cable channel. Michael Waltz was very Trumpy when he was representing FL-06 in Congress. Now, he is the National Security Adviser. Yesterday, Floridians headed to the polls to choose nominees for the special elections to fill those seats. And Republican voters picked two very Trumpy Republicans as their preferred replacements for the two departed Trumpy Republicans.

In FL-01, which is R+19, the GOP nominee will be Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis. A couple of years ago, he tried to get the legislature to write a check for $5 million to Donald Trump, to help cover legal bills. This was, of course, before Trump was a convicted felon. Otherwise it would probably have been $10 million. In FL-06, which is R+14, the GOP nominee will be state Sen. Randy Fine. He is the only Jewish Republican in the Florida state legislature, and is very pro-Israel and very anti-LGBTQ and anti-Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Both winners had Trump's endorsement yesterday, and both defeated their nearest challenger by more than 50 points.

The Democratic candidate in FL-01, for what it is worth, is Gay Valimont, who was unopposed yesterday. Her signature issue is gun control, which is not likely to play well in a ruby red, substantially rural district. The Democrat in FL-06 is Josh Weil, who is a public school teacher, and who proudly brands himself as a Florida Progressive Democrat. He is also a perennial candidate, having run for Congress at least two times previously. As with Valimont, the fit here, between candidate and district, is not too good.

As we point out every time we write about special elections, sometimes they produce very unusual results. So, you can't be 100% sure what will happen when Florida voters cast their ballots on April 1. But you can probably be 99.8% sure that the two Republicans will win, and Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) margin for error will get a tiny bit larger. (Z)

Today in Fawning Obeisance

We suspect that most readers are familiar with the old joke about the two campers and the bear. Just in case, though, it goes like this: Two campers awaken one morning, and one of them goes to the nearby river to get some water. A few minutes later, he comes running back, at breakneck speed, and starts putting on his tennis shoes. The other fellow, the one who remained at the campsite, says, "What the heck are you doing?" The first fellow says, "I saw a bear over by the river, and he's headed this way." The stay-behind camper asks: "Why bother with your shoes? You can't outrun a bear, with or without them." "I don't have to outrun the bear," the first fellow responds. "I just have to outrun you."

What does that have to do with anything? We'll get to that. For now, we will note that Jim Acosta's time at CNN has come to an end. The management was planning to move the anchor to the midnight shift, which is the journalistic equivalent of Siberia. Rather than accept the obvious, heavy-duty demotion, Acosta decided to quit. In his message announcing his departure, he implored viewers: "Don't give in to the lies. Don't give in to the fear."

Acosta did not use any names, but it's hardly a secret what person he had in mind. The soon-to-be-former CNN anchor has butted heads with Donald Trump on numerous occasions, which is why the network wanted Acosta to be either gone or else forgotten. Trump, ever the embodiment of class, took to his obscure and lightly trafficked social media platform to celebrate:

Wow, really good news! Jim Acosta, one of the worst and most dishonest reporters in journalistic history, a major sleazebag, has been relegated by CNN Fake News to the Midnight hour, "Death Valley," because of extraordinarily BAD RATINGS (and no talent!). Word is that he wants to QUIT, and that would be even better. Jim is a major loser who will fail no matter where he ends up. Good luck Jim!

Just in case you have forgotten in the past 30 seconds, this man is the President of the United States.

We must admit, we cannot figure out exactly what the long-term plan is at CNN, ABC, The Washington Post and these other outlets who are kowtowing to Trump. Obviously, we understand that they all have billion-dollar corporate business concerns that are informing their journalistic choices. But what exactly are they going to do over the next 4 years? We can think of several possibilities, though none of them really pass the smell test:

• The Johnny Cash Plan: The Los Angeles Times' Patrick Soon-Shiong clearly plans to walk the line, and to perform balance by hiring a bunch of conservatives for the paper's staff. Maybe these other outlets are planning to do the same, and to present themselves as "fair and balanced" over the next 4 years. We are very dubious that the readership/viewership will accept that change, and we can absolutely foresee cratering viewership/subscriber bases (something that's already hitting CNN and The Washington Post hard). Further, this wouldn't actually placate Trump. Recall that Fox is pro-Trump 95% of the time, and mildly critical of Trump the other 5%. And yet, he is constantly badmouthing that outlet. How can a 50/50 outlet plausibly hope for better from the President?
  
  
• The Godfather Plan: When Vito or Michael Corleone do you a favor, they remember, and they expect you to remember, and someday (and that day may never come) they may ask for repayment. Perhaps, when Warner Bros. Discovery gets serious about merger talk later this year or next year, and it's time for the Trump-run Department of Justice to take a look-see, someone will helpfully remind Trump that Jim Acosta was axed as a gift to him. But again, this is not how Trump works. He does not remember or repay favors. Meanwhile, he remembers perceived slights for decades. If CNN does a piece in September of this year that is critical of him, it will not matter one whit that they shoved Acosta out the door in January of this year.
  
  
• The Outrun the Bear Plan: Perhaps the notion is not to placate Trump on an ongoing basis, just to avoid being his least favorite outlet, and thus his target. "We don't have to be loved by Trump, we just have to be less hated than, say, MSNBC," is the general idea. If this is the notion, then it's certainly an interesting one. However, Trump has a long history of maintaining squabbles with multiple, similar entities at once (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, The Washington Post and The New York Times, etc.), so we don't actually think that the #2 position or #3 position on his sh**list is especially advantageous as compared to the #1 position.

Maybe we are giving the corporate honchos too much credit in thinking they actually have a plan. All we know is that maintaining their corporate interests AND their news-gathering operations look to be mutually exclusive propositions over the next 4 years, particularly since they've concluded that Trump simply must be placated. (Z)

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