Trump Shuts Down the Border

The various XOs that Donald Trump has signed are starting to take effect. In practice, the Mexican border has now been shut down. Agents have been asked to query potential immigrants if they have been in a country with a communicable disease. No matter what country they name, they are denied entry because all countries have some communicable diseases. The only people who have the authority to allow anyone in are the head of the Border Patrol, Mike Banks, and his deputy. No other agent may allow anyone in.

Mexican citizens are denied entry and, since they are already in Mexico, they are just released. Citizens of other countries are being held and will be returned to their homelands by air. This procedure will increase the number of detainees in the coming weeks until procedures can be worked out to return them. ICE is working on doubling its holding capacity by building four new 10,000-bed facilities and 14 smaller ones that will hold up to 1,000 immigrants.

In addition, Trump is planning to send 10,000 troops to the southern border to work with the 19,000 Border Patrol agents. The military will also send drones and other equipment as well.

Earlier this week, Trump fired the Coast Guard Commandant, Adm. Linda Fagan and replaced her with Adm. Kevin Lunday as acting commandant. He immediately sent boats, aircraft, and special forces to the U.S. maritime borders. In particular, he is aiming to block Haitian and Cuban migration by sea and other migration in what Trump calls the Gulf of America, but is actually the Gulf of Mexico. (V)

Trump Is Good at Asserting Dominance but Weak at Actually Leading

A number of Donald Trump's initial acts have been designed very carefully to assert his dominance over Congress and others and make it clear that anyone disobeying him would pay a heavy price. First up was his choice of cabinet (and cabinet-level) nominees. Some of them, like Marco Rubio for secretary of state, were seen as mainstream and not problematic. Others, like Kristi Noem for homeland security, were more controversial, but at least plausible. But Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense and Tulsi Gabbard for DNI were direct challenges to the Senate. Trump was basically saying: "I know these people are totally unfit for office in every way. I don't care and I dare you to defy me."

Another example of Trump daring Congress to cross him was how he handled the TikTok situation. Congress passed a law banning TikTok if it wasn't sold to an American company by Jan. 19. The president was given the authority to delay the ban for 90 days if progress was being made on a sale. There was no progress and Trump delayed the ban anyway, law or no law, saying: "Congress, what are you going to do about it?" We can expect many more examples of Trump publicly asserting dominance over Congress and everyone else in his path going forward.

Big strong alpha male here, right? Not really. Bullying people who are in a weaker position than he is comes naturally to Trump (and see below). But when forced to make tough decisions, he tends to chicken out. Case in point: He wants an immigration bill and also a tax cut bill. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) wants one giant bill with everything in it. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) wants separate bills. Each one has his reasons. This is a classic example of where presidential leadership is needed. Trump has to pick one strategy and tell both leaders this is what he wants and get both to agree. He can't do it, so there has been no progress on any bill.

The same is true of the debt limit. He needs to get it raised or abolished. Some Republicans want to include it in a reconciliation bill, which risks some members of the Freedom Caucus killing the bill. Other Republicans want to make a deal with the Democrats, giving them something in return for their support so the bill is not held hostage by the Freedom Caucus. Trump seems unable to break the logjam.

Still another hot-button issue is the SALT limit, which punishes blue states by limiting deductions for state and local taxes. Republican congressmen from New York and California have said they won't vote for the tax bill unless the limit is raised. Freedom Caucus members have said they will not vote for the bill if it is raised. Time for presidential action, no? Trump to Congress: "You figure it out." That's not leadership. That's cowardice and unwillingness to confront selected congressmen and read them the riot act.

Yet another issue is aid to Southern California on account of the wildfires. Some Republicans want to stick it to California and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) by attaching a bunch of unacceptable conditions to the aid to make Newsom eat dirt. Boy, would that feel good. But other Republicans know that there are hurricanes in Texas and Florida regularly and once the precedent has been set, a future Democratic House, Senate, or president could attach strings to any aid to them. Trump needs to make a decision here and order Republicans to follow it. He can't make a decision.

This has happened on other matters as well. When Republicans are fighting Democrats, he is sure to intervene but when Republicans are fighting other Republicans, that's when his leadership is needed and so far it has been wanting. Yesterday was only Day 3, but it is not a great start. (V)

Trump Attacks Bishop Who Addressed the National Prayer Service on Tuesday

Continuing on the theme of asserting dominance, Donald Trump loves to attack people who are weaker than he is. On Tuesday, he attended an interfaith prayer service at Washington National Cathedral. It has been a tradition for newly inaugurated presidents for nearly a century. However, Trump normally wouldn't be caught dead in a church unless he was holding a rally outside of one and God demonstrated his disapproval by causing a major thunderstorm. Still he (Trump, not God) probably thought that being seen in or near a church once per term would make his evangelical supporters giddy with his religiosity. So he went and sat there looking bored, clearly wishing he was in the office signing XOs. Melania doesn't look real happy either.

The service was officiated by Episcopal Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde. She is Washington's first female bishop, serving since 2011. In her sermon, she addressed Trump directly:

If you don't want to watch it, here is the key quote:

Let me make one final plea, Mr. President. Millions have put their trust in you. And as you told the nation yesterday, you have felt the providential hand of a loving God. In the name of our God, I ask you to have mercy upon the people in our country who are scared now. There are gay, lesbian and transgender children in Democratic, Republican, and independent families, some who fear for their lives.

It took Trump a day to react, but react he did, on his boutique social media site. He called the service very boring and uninspiring. He described the "so-called bishop" as a "Radical Left hard line Trump hater" who was politicizing her church. He noted that she didn't mention that some migrants have killed people (maybe so, but HE neglected to mention that the overwhelming majority of murders are committed by citizens born in the country). Finally, he added: "She is not very good at her job. She and her church owe the public an apology." Apparently Trump has not read the King Donald version of the made-in-China Bible he is selling.

Some Republicans defended Trump. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), for example, tweeted: "The person giving this sermon should be added to the deportation list." That would mean sending her back to New Jersey, where she was born and where she clearly belongs. (V)

Trump Orders ICE to Target Churches

Generally, presidents—especially Republican presidents—don't pick fights with religious leaders because many of their supporters are religious. Donald Trump doesn't seem to care. In fact, yesterday he did something else on that front that is surely going to bother many of his supporters shortly. He authorized ICE to go into churches to round up undocumented immigrants. Historically, churches could offer sanctuary to people; that is over now. The first time ICE agents raid a church, there will be a lot of blowback. Trump also authorized raids on schools. The first time children are arrested while sitting in class, and then deported, is also going to be explosive. Trump presumably knows this and doesn't care. In the Biden administration, ICE was instructed not to raid churches, schools, and other sensitive locations.

Some school districts are pushing back against Trump. Diana Diaz, a spokeswoman for the Fresno Unified School District, said: "Our policy is clear and strong that immigration enforcement is not allowed on our campuses unless forced through a valid court order." The Chicago Board of Education passed a resolution in November stating that ICE agents would not be allowed in schools without a criminal warrant.

Of course, if ICE shows up anyway, will the local police interfere? That's when the rubber hits the road. It could get very messy and possibly violent, especially if local authorities try to block federal ones. Also, while churches are not likely to physically resist ICE agents, they will certainly publicize raids and some churchgoers who voted for Trump may start to regret their votes. (V)

Democrats Are Slowing Down the Confirmation Process

The Senate confirmed its (now-former) member Marco Rubio 99-0 very quickly, but since then, the Democrats are using Senate rules to slow down the confirmation process—just as Republicans did to slow down the confirmation of Joe Biden's picks for judges in December. Turns out both sides know the Senate rules. Republicans whined but Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said: "If every one of President Trump's nominees were as qualified and experienced as Senator Rubio, they would sail through the Senate with bipartisan support. But sadly, too many of the president's nominees do not match Senator Rubio's caliber. Too many have troubling backgrounds. Too many seem unprepared for the job, and proved so during testimony."

Some Republicans noted that all of Barack Obama's first cabinet was confirmed in 2 weeks. However, then it was possible to filibuster nominees, so a nominee had to get 60 votes to be confirmed. This led Obama and previous presidents to pick far less contentious nominees and certainly no nominees that were highly partisan and totally unqualified for the position, as is now the case.

The more controversial the candidate, the more the Democrats will try to delay the vote, in part to allow time for more bad news to come out. On Tuesday, it came out that the ex-wife of Pete Hegseth's brother had a few choice words about the nominee. Yesterday it came out that Robert Kennedy Jr. has a financial stake in the lawsuit against Merck, which is being sued over its Gardasil vaccine, which protects teenagers against the papillomavirus. Kennedy referred clients to Wisner Baum, the law firm suing Merck, and he receives a finder's fee for referrals. He has earned more than $2.5 million from such fees in recent years. This is a clear conflict of interest, since as secretary of HHS he would have the power to regulate Merck. It could hurt Kennedy's chances. His hearing will be explosive, but it is probably a few weeks away.

If the Democrats continue to stall nominations, Trump can try for recess appointments. That would require both the Senate and House to adjourn for 10 days so Trump could make the appointments without the need for Senate confirmation. That would amount to the Senate simply abandoning all its power and constitutional duty and admitting in public that it will just rubber stamp everything Trump wants. It would certainly end the Senate's contention that it is the world's greatest deliberative body. It would also mark the new majority leader, John Thune, as the weakest Senate leader in history. He probably doesn't want to go down that road if he can avoid it. (V)

Musk Contradicts Trump

On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced a $500 billion deal to create an infrastructure for AI called Stargate. It would consist of an initial 10 data centers in Texas, with more later, and would create 100,000 jobs almost immediately, according to Trump. The companies involved are OpenAI, Oracle, MGX, and Softbank, a Japanese bank.

Late Tuesday evening, Co-President Elon Musk tweeted that Softbank, which is to handle the financing, doesn't have the money. In fact, it has under $10 billion. He said he had that on good authority. This is the first time Musk has openly said Trump was making up stuff. Sam Altman, of OpenAI, said Musk was wrong. We don't know who is right, but we do know that $500 billion is a lot of money. It is not at all like $500 million, although that is also a lot of money. For reference, the entire Dept. of Defense budget is $850 billion, so this one AI project will cost as much as almost 60% of the entire DoD budget. We also know that building a big AI infrastructure has financial risks since the resulting AI may not work well. Imagine an AI program that does medical diagnoses and cures 95% of the patients and kills 5% of the patients. Can you imagine the lawsuits? Even if it works well, earning that amount of money back could take a very long time. Who will put up so much money with such big risks? Musk sounds like he might be right here.

One thing we definitely know is that openly criticizing Trump has generally bad consequences for the person issuing the criticism. One of the DOGEys has already departed. Will the other one follow soon?

Musk and Altman know each other quite well. They cofounded OpenAI, but then had a major falling out. Musk has brought multiple lawsuits against Altman and the company, so it is hard to tell here who the bigger liar is. But what the bigger story probably is, is that Musk doesn't seem to realize that criticizing Trump can result in his being put in the dog(e)house. (V)

Putin to Trump: Don't Seize the Panama Canal

Donald Trump has made noises about seizing the Panama Canal recently. TASS, the Russian state media outlet, which is controlled by Vladimir Putin, responded by warning Trump not to do it. A translation of the key sentence is: "We expect that during the expected discussions between the leadership of Panama and U.S. President Donald Trump on issues of control over the Panama Canal, which certainly falls within the sphere of their bilateral relations, the parties will respect the current international legal regime of this key waterway."

Due to geography, Russia does not use the canal much, but clearly is concerned about a new round of American imperialism. In contrast, Chinese products destined for the U.S. East Coast do go through the canal and Putin may be thinking out loud for his sometime buddy, Chinese President Xi Jinping. If Trump tried to seize the canal using military force, that could have a negative effect on Trump's relationship with Putin, not to mention Xi.

In other Russia-related news, maybe the brotherly love between Putin and Trump is not so strong as it was during Trump v1.0. First Putin tells Trump not to do something he said he was going to do. Then Trump struck back at Putin by threatening Russia with tariffs if Putin doesn't end the Ukraine war. Remember, Trump campaigned on ending the war quickly, but never said how he was going to do it. Many people assumed he would do this by telling Volodymyr Zelenskyy to surrender and give Putin whatever he wanted. This threat to his former buddy Putin is new. Here is the whole "Truth" if you are interested, but suffice it to say that it is not friendly and quite threatening. Where did this come from all of a sudden?

If Putin ends the war by going back to the status quo ante, he is going to have a big problem at home. Tens of thousands of young Russian men have been killed, hundreds of thousands have been injured, and untold numbers have fled the country. The economy is in bad shape. All for nothing? How is he going to explain this to the Russian people? Also, the threat of tariffs is not much of a threat at all, because Russia doesn't export anything to the U.S. anymore. Vodka? It is just diluted ethyl alcohol with a bit of flavoring. Lots of American companies make it.

Putin is never going to just give up now because Trump says he should. This could anger Trump and who knows what an unpredictable Trump might do. Change sides and order Zelenskyy to give up? The Ukrainian won't do that as long as Europe supplies him with weapons. If the war drags on for months, the Democrats could have a field day with Trump's promises, like building a wall and getting Mexico to pay for it and, now, not ending the war in Ukraine on Day 1. Trump's promise reminds us of Richard Nixon's campaign promise to end the war in Vietnam by some unspecified means. He ultimately did end the war—by losing it. (V)

Has the Right Won the Culture Wars?

Starting in 1961, the left dominated the country all the time culturally and half the time politically (with Presidents Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden). Right now, the right controls all three branches of government, but is also ascendant culturally. Thomas Edsall has an interesting column about how this came about.

For one thing, the left was slow to grasp the importance of new media and also had some bad luck. When Elon Musk bought Twitter and turned it into a right-wing cesspool, the left didn't have any alternative until Bluesky really got going in 2024. Meanwhile there were multiple other right-wing microblogging sites, including Truth Social, Parler, and Gab, waiting in the wings.

Podcasting is another new medium where conservatives dominated. Joe Rogan has the most popular podcast, but a majority of the top 10 are also pro-MAGA. Then there is Tucker Carlson. The left has no answer to him.

Another victory for the right has been the capitulation of the new tech barons to Donald Trump. Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg were all front and center at his inauguration. None of them are known as devoted lefties and they have to worry about their quarterly profits for the next 16 quarters, so bowing down to Trump seems to them like a good thing to do.

What about the traditional media? They are scared of Trump. The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times refused to endorse Kamala Harris, even though their editors wanted to. ABC decided to settle a bogus lawsuit that it could easily have won because it didn't want to anger Trump. Trump has sued CBS for $10 billion over its interview with Kamala Harris, a case he could never win on the merits, but it is likely CBS will settle because it wants Trump to approve a merger between CBS' owner, Paramount, and Skydance. Since the election, Fox's ratings have gone up while those of MSNBC and CNN have nosedived. Talk radio has been a Republican stronghold ever since the late Rush Limbaugh went on the air.

Part of this is that Trump is a bully and Democrats don't do that. Suppose that Joe Biden had told Fox to turn down the volume or he would order the FCC to rescind its broadcast license. Unthinkable, right?

What about universities? After Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) pistol-whipped a bunch of university presidents, universities panicked about losing their federal funding and all the protests about Gaza stopped. They are rolling back their DEI efforts (as are businesses). Efforts to block conservative speakers on campus and mandatory diversity statements give elite universities a bad name with the general public. That was absolutely not the case in the 1960s and 1970s. The universities' perceived wokeness has cost them a lot of prestige with the general public, which sees them as indoctrinating students, not educating them.

One thing that Republicans are good at, and Democrats are bad at, is messaging. Republicans have only a couple of themes, like immigrants and crime, but they hammer on them, day and night, night and day. Some immigrant commits a heinous crime, Republicans go nuts, and Congress passes a bill, like the Laken Riley Act that it passed yesterday. When was the last time you heard that the guy who pulled off the Oklahoma city bombing that killed 168 people, including 19 children, with hundreds injured, was a native-born white Christian man, Timothy McVeigh? Then there was South Carolina-born white Christian man Dylann Roof, who shot up a Bible class in a church in Charleston and killed nine people in 2015. How about the incident in Las Vegas in 2017 when Stephen Paddock, a white Christian man born in Iowa, gunned down 60 people and injured hundreds of others? Or that Adam Lanza, a native-born white Christian man, killed 20 children and 6 teachers at Sandy Hook. Do you see a pattern here? And there are dozens more. But one immigrant kills one student nurse in Georgia and it is a Very Big Deal.

Democrats have a vast number of issues, including abortion, bathrooms, climate change, corporate greed, education, equality, gay rights, green energy, gun control, health care, housing, racial justice, sexism, voting rights, and many more. Voters can't remember all this stuff. Maybe the Democrats need to whittle it down to a couple of themes, like Republicans try to steal elections and billionaires control the country for their own benefit. The Republicans' message is fundamentally positive: Americans are a good people and if it weren't for these criminal immigrants, all would be well. The Democrats' message is fundamentally negative: The country is beset by dozens of major, major problems, like the ones listed above. Turns out, people like the positive message better. Surprise. (V)

Not All Leaders in the Crypto Business Are Happy with $TRUMP

Leaders in the crypto world are trying to convince people that crypto is a new kind of solid investment, not the Ponzi scheme that it actually is. When Donald Trump shows up with a new coin, $TRUMP, and becomes worth $50 billion in 3 days, that doesn't give off the vibe of a solid asset. And then it dropped 36% when Melania came out with her coin, $MELANIA, further showing that the whole thing is a house of cards that can collapse at any moment. Many of the crypto world's movers and shakers don't like this.

In addition, some people in the crypto world were worried that people would (correctly) perceive $TRUMP as a way for people seeking to curry favor with the president to funnel money to him in a sort of legitimate way. Nic Carter, a crypto investor, is worried that $TRUMP could open the way to rampant violations of the emoluments clause (and possibly create a backlash). Lee Bratcher, of the Texas Blockchain Council, said: "In my subjective opinion, it isn't a healthy development." Crypto lawyer Hailey Lennon tweeted: "I don't think Trump knows or cares what the ramifications of his meme coins are besides his short term personal profit." Maya Bakhai, a general partner at Spice Capital, is worried that the interests of Trump and the crypto illuminati are diverging from those of the small retail investor. Bitcoin Magazine denigrated $TRUMP on eX-Twitter.

Democrats don't know what to do. Warning people that crypto is really a Ponzi scheme and could collapse anytime doesn't make them popular with people who have made money on it (on "paper," so far). But they know that if they encourage it and it goes south fast, they will be blamed. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), ranking member of the House Banking Committee, said: "The launch and sale of this coin is yet another reason why all Americans and policymakers should exercise extreme caution on crypto." That's really all they can do: Warn people about the huge risks. (V)

The New Definition of Gender Will Apply When Passports Are Renewed

Yesterday, we had an item on Donald Trump's XO repealing the Fourteenth Amendment. That obviously affects people born on U.S. soil (possibly many years ago) to undocumented immigrants, who could suddenly lose their U.S. citizenship if the Supreme Court grants Donald Trump his wish.

But there is another XO that could cause some other people extreme grief if it is upheld. It is the one that states there are exactly two genders and a person's gender is determined at conception based on whether the person resulting from that fertilized cell will eventually produce egg cells (= female) or sperm cells (= male). This XO directs the State Dept. to mark all newly issued passports, including renewals, with the gender on the person's birth certificate.

This is a bit abstract, so let us make it more concrete with a case well known to (V). Here is a photo of Lynn Conway:

She grew up partly in White Plains, NY, as (V) did. She and (V) both graduated from White Plains High School and both went to MIT thereafter. She later went on to invent the methodology that is now the basis for designing all the computer chips in the world. She died in June 2024 and we ran an obituary of her on June 21, 2024.

Conway was born as a boy and had a difficult transition. Here is her story. If she were alive now and renewed her passport, the Sex field would be marked: MALE. One can easily imagine every immigration official she encountered on her travels (both abroad and returning home) seeing this and instantly accusing her of stealing the passport from some man and pasting her photo on it. Since she looked like a woman and had lived as a woman for 50 years, she would obviously have been in great danger of officials believing the passport was fraudulent. That also holds for every trans person who looks visibly different from the sex listed on their passport and will undoubtedly cause many of them grief when traveling internationally. (V)

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