Second Presidential Debate Postmortem

The pundits have had 24 hours to turn things over and, perhaps most importantly—given how dirty the debate made everyone feel—time to take a nice, long shower. Here's what they are saying about the Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton slugfest:

Left-leaning commentators

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post Winners: Clinton, Martha Raddatz, Abraham Lincoln. Losers: Trump, Mike Pence, Bill Clinton. "Who told Trump it would be a good idea to stay standing—and walking—throughout Clinton's answers? I don't know how it played for most people watching at home, but I found it distracting and stomach-churningly awkward."

Jason Easley, PoliticusUSA Winners: Clinton, Raddatz, Anderson Cooper. Loser: Trump. "Donald Trump's base supporters will be delighted with his performance, but Trump looked unhinged with his constant pacing, and unbridled rage made the case for Democrats that he is not fit to be president. Trump needed a campaign saving debate performance, but what the country got was confirmation that he should never be president."

Dylan Matthews, Vox Winners: Clinton, Cooper, Raddatz, Bashar al-Assad. Loser: Trump. "Reasonable people can disagree on the best US policy response to the carnage in Syria. But there can be no doubt that Assad bears ultimate responsibility for it, and is guilty of heinous war crimes. So it was striking to hear a major US presidential candidate vocally defend Assad before a national TV audience."

Cathleen Decker, Los Angeles Times Winner: Clinton. Loser: Trump. "Trump's target audience tonight—the one that counted—was small, composed of undecided women voters. If they'd wanted the unvarnished Trump, they would have been on his side already. They didn't get much more [Sunday]."

Jeff Yang, CNN Winner: Clinton. Loser: Trump. "It's hard to imagine that there are pundits who are calling this debate a draw—or even a "victory on points" for Trump. He blustered, he blathered, he blazed a scorched-earth trail of spite and fury across the stage, and through it all, Clinton remained cool, collected and, dare I say it, presidential."

Right-leaning commentators

Tory Newmyer, Fortune Winner: Clinton. Loser: Trump. "A rattled and defiant Donald Trump sought Sunday to move past the video of him musing about sexually assaulting women that since its Friday revelation has sent his presidential campaign into a tailspin. But in trying to answer for the 2005 comments in the opening round of the second presidential debate, the Republican nominee mixed qualified contrition with angry counterattacks on Hillary Clinton unlikely to endear him to anyone not already in his camp."

Jay Caruso, RedState.com Winner: Trump. Losers: Clinton, Raddatz. "Trump was able to gain the upper hand. All of the p***y? Gone. Trump looked as though he was on some kind of depressants early on. But as the evening went on, he found his footing and had Hillary on her heels a number of times."

Rick Wilson, Republican strategist Winner: Clinton. Loser: Trump. "Republicans who took heart at his antic, boob-bait performance are grasping at a thin, crazy reed that the coming news cycles will snap."

S.E. Cupp, CNN Winner: None. Loser: None. "But it's safe to say, Clinton came in with the advantage, and Trump came in with an almost impossible recovery mission. He did little to recover, but it's also hard to see where she used that advantage effectively."

Tara Setmayer, CNN Winner: None. Loser: None. "Heading into this debate, Trump's campaign was possibly mortally wounded. He performed well enough to stop the bleeding, for now. But did he do anything to close the gap with key swing state constituencies he needs to win? Doubtful. Fortunately for Trump, Hillary Clinton is such a flawed candidate, she was unable to land the knockout blow. This one was a draw."

Foreign commentators

Anthony Zurcher, BBC Winner: None. Loser: None. "While [Clinton] landed some staggering blows, it was by no means a rout. Instead, both candidates will likely emerge bloodied but not beaten."

Tim Stanley, The Telegraph (UK) Winner: Trump. Loser: Clinton. "The bar was low—way, way low—but Trump still slithered over it.."

Harriet Alexander, The Telegraph (UK) Winner: Clinton. Loser: Trump. "It was a nasty, mud slinging, bad tempered debate—as predicted. But in the end Hillary Clinton's experience, poise and preparation made her the winner. She fully expected every one of the rocks Mr Trump lobbed at her, and had ready answers."

Across these 13 commentators, the tally ends up like this:

Clinton: 8 wins, 2 losses
Raddatz: 3 wins, 1 loss
Cooper: 2 wins, 0 losses
Lincoln: 1 win, 0 loss
Al-Assad: 1 win, 0 loss
Trump: 2 wins, 8 losses

It's a no-doubt-about-it win for Clinton. Meanwhile, we live in a strange world when both moderators outpoll one of the nominees and Abraham Lincoln and Bashar al-Assad finish in a tie.

Of course, the biggest post-debate storyline was the budding Civil War within the Republican Party. Business Insider's Brett LoGiurato describes Sunday's debate as the GOP's "nightmare scenario"—Trump did not do well enough to right the ship, but he also did not do poorly enough to end his campaign. Therefore, the party is left with no clear direction nor purpose as regards its nominee. The Washington Post's Philip Rucker and Robert Costa are similarly pessimistic, declaring the Republicans to be a party in "anarchy" where it's "every person for himself or herself." GOP Chairman Reince Priebus is still on board with Trump—perhaps a reflection of the fact that Priebus will not be putting himself at the mercy of the voting public in four weeks. Paul Ryan (R-WI), by contrast, is trying to make sure he keeps the Speakership, and so has declared he will no longer defend or campaign with Trump. Note that there is nothing there about withdrawing his support or his endorsement—Ryan is trying to walk a very delicate line, keeping both pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republicans on board for the downballot races. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) insists that he is still on board, though of course he will do so until he's not anymore, and the word behind the scenes is that he is not happy. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) did some soul-searching (possibly with an electron microscope), and decided he's still with Trump as well. Pence and Cruz are potentially in an interesting dance right now, since they will both be competing for the same voters in 2020. One of them could benefit enormously from being "the guy who stood on principle, and jumped ship on Trump." But if either pulls the trigger, the other is stuck on board the S.S. Trump until the bitter end. More on the GOP dilemma below.

The other major storyline on Monday was Trump's Bill Clinton-related maneuvering on Sunday night. What we knew then was that at his pre-debate press conference, Trump was accompanied by three women who have accused Bill of sexual assault. What we know now is that Trump wanted to seat the women in his family's box seats, in an effort to get under Hillary's skin. The Commission on Presidential Debates put the kibosh on that, helpfully explaining the meaning of the word "family" to Trump, and telling him that any who did not fit that definition would be ejected. Meanwhile, one of the three women—Juanita Broaddrick—created a rather serious problem on Monday when she let it spill that her travel costs were paid for by Breitbart News. If this was true—and why would Broaddrick make it up?—then that would be an illegal in-kind corporate contribution. Once this was pointed out, both she and the Trump campaign quickly remembered that it was actually the Trump campaign that paid her way. Meanwhile, more than one media outlet has observed that when news of Bill's infidelities originally broke 20 years ago, Trump—he of the locker room talk—called the accusers "terrible" and said that Bill himself was the real victim.

Of course, it wouldn't be a 2016 presidential debate without Trump getting into some feuds the next day. In the debate itself, Trump called out Warren Buffett, claiming that Buffett also skips out on his tax bill. To the candidate's surprise, Buffett responded in kind on Monday. The Oracle of Omaha says that he has paid taxes in every year since 1944, has every single one of his returns, and has never used a carry forward to avoid paying taxes in the manner the Donald did. Buffett also said he would be happy to release his tax returns while under audit, and pointedly observed that he donated roughly three-quarters of Trump's entire net worth to charity last year. Meanwhile, as predicted, we're already hearing about how unfairly Trump was treated on Sunday. His preferred media outlet, Fox News, slammed Raddatz and Cooper. Trump himself believes the conspiracy goes beyond just the moderators, declaring that CNN rigged its post-debate focus group against him.

Continuing in the conspiracy theory vein, Trump and his supporters cannot decide exactly who was responsible for the "Access Hollywood" tape leak. The nominee himself blames the Clintons. He threatened them on Monday, saying, "If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about Bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things." Ted Cruz, by contrast, blames NBC; he believes they sat on the tape until it would do maximum damage. Jerry Falwell, Jr., disagrees; he thinks it was GOP leadership, trying to rid themselves of their nominee. It's really quite a mystery; perhaps we can get the Benghazi committee to look into it. Melania Trump, for her part, has not expressed an opinion publicly. However, quite a few observers noted the irony in her choice of clothing on Sunday night. Whether deliberate or not, the shirt she was wearing was an $1,100 Gucci creation, described on their website as a "pussy-bow silk crepe de chine shirt." We report, you decide.

There is an old saying that the first casualty of war is the truth. They really need to update that to include presidential debates, as CNN, NPR, the New York Times, Politifact, FactCheck, and USA Today all confirm. By one count, Trump made 33 different false statements, compared to five for Clinton. Looking from a slightly different angle, Politico detected 13 times that Trump was dead wrong, compared to two for Clinton. Actually, though, the job of the fact checkers is getting easier. Not because the candidates are getting more honest, but because they keep telling the same whoppers every time. So, all the report takes is a simple cut and paste.

Needless to say, a lot of people are disheartened by the tone and tenor of what they saw on Sunday. A few, like the Arizona Republic's EJ Montini, are even calling for the third debate to be canceled. His argument, which is a pretty good one, is that we're not learning anything new about the candidates any more, and that performances like the one we saw on Sunday merely insult the voting public and weaken the democracy. The ratings would seem to bear out the notion that the American people are losing interest; the second debate attracted 20% fewer viewers than the first, despite being scheduled at a more audience-friendly time.

And finally, to end on a lighter note, a star may have been born on Sunday. Ken Bone, who asked the candidates a question about climate change during the debate, charmed viewers with his earnestness, his disposable camera, and his bright red sweater. He's already become a meme, being dropped into artworks like "Washington Crossing the Delaware". He's also set to become a popular choice for Halloween costumes. His fame may be of the 15-minute variety, but after the dirty taste the debate left in so many viewers' mouths, he was a much-welcome breath of fresh air. (Z)

Second Poll Says Clinton Won the Debate

Another scientific poll, this one from YouGov, said that Hillary Clinton won Sunday's debate, but by a smaller margin than the first (Morning Consult) poll. This one had her ahead 47% to 42%. Among undecided voters it was Clinton 44% to 41%. Clinton won by 12 points among women, but Trump by 3 points among men. The poll also asked which candidate seemed more presidential. Clinton won that easily, 57% to 31%. (V)

Clinton Leads by Double Digits Nationally

A national poll taken after the release of "The Tape" but before the debate was published yesterday. It is an NBC/WSJ poll taken Saturday and Sunday before the debate. In a head-to-head matchup, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 52% to 38%. In a four-way race including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 46% to 35%. These numbers show that the third-party candidates appear to be hurting Clinton more than they are hurting Trump. But either way, her lead has apparently doubled as a result of the videotape in which Trump bragged about how he liked to grab women by the p***y.

The poll also asked what people thought of what Trump said on the tape. Forty-one percent said it was completely unacceptable and another 31% said it was inappropriate. Eight percent didn't have a problem with it. (V)

Body Language Experts Analyze the Debate

Two experts on body language, David Givens and Patti Wood, have analyzed the body language seen in Sunday's debate. Trump played the alpha male the entire debate, asserting dominance in many ways. Even his snorts gave the message of a bull in attack mode. His restless movements around the stage detracted from her words. It made him look big and her look small. His movements could be compared to a lion surrounding and attacking a weaker prey. When she spoke, he paraded around, but when he spoke, she sat. In the animal kingdom, standing is aggressive and sitting is passive. All of this behavior sent a message to his male supporters, many of whom have little control over their lives and are in a weak position. The message is: "I am strong and powerful. Stick with me for safety."

The experts gave some advice to Clinton for the third debate. If he breaks the rules, do so yourself as well to show that he is not dominating you. In particular, go over your time limit and refuse to listen to the moderator, Fox News' Chris Wallace. (V)

Republican Candidates for Congress are Boxed In

Friday's videotape has put Republican candidates for the House and Senate (and state offices) in a terrible bind. If they stick with Trump, they will be branded as sexists for not only this year, but for the rest of their lives. If they reject Trump, they may be punished at the polls next month by the many loyal Trump voters who are sticking with their man. Waffling just makes everyone angry with them. There is no way out.

For candidates like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who are far ahead in their races, there is less danger in rejecting Trump, because the number of Republicans who are willing to vote for a Democrat just to make a point is probably not that large. The real problem is for senators like Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), who is in a very tight race with a popular governor, Maggie Hassan (D-NH), in a moderately blue state. If half the Republicans in her state support Trump and the other half hate him, no matter what she says, half of her base will be upset. Whether they will be upset enough to vote for her opponent remains to be seen, but the threat is very real. (V)

Conway: Comment about Jailing Clinton was just a Quip

Donald Trump has taken a lot of heat for his remark that if he is elected president, he will have his attorney general (Chris Christie? Rudy Giuliani?) appoint a special prosecutor and put Hillary Clinton in prison. Many people have pointed out that jailing your opponents is a typical characteristic of dictatorships. Trump's campaign manager quickly realized the damage this remark was doing and went on television to say it was only a "quip." She added: "Whether she goes to jail is not up to Donald Trump. It is up to whoever adjudicates whatever crime she has or has not committed." While the rule of law may seem like an annoying and unnecessary bureaucratic restriction to some of Trump's supporters, Conway understands that many other voters do not see it that way.

Neither does the U.S. Dept. of Justice. Although the president nominates the attorney general, the decision about whom to prosecute is the attorney general's and not the president's. If a President Trump tried to order the Justice Dept. to prosecute Hillary Clinton, it could create a "Saturday Night Massacre" situation, like in the Nixon administration, when Nixon attempted to fire the prosecutor investigating the Watergate break-in. Some former Republican appointees to high posts in the Justice Dept. used words like "abhorrent," "absurd," and "terrifying" to describe Trump's plans to imprison Clinton. Marc Jimenez, who served on George W. Bush's legal team in the Bush v. Gore case in 2000, was deeply disturbed by Trump's remarks, saying:

This statement demonstrates the clear and present danger that Trump presents to our justice system. For a president to "instruct" an attorney general to commence any prosecution or take any particular action is abhorrent. If it occurred, it would be a politically motivated decision that would cheapen the Department of Justice and contradict the core principle that prosecutors should never consider political factors in their charging or other decisions.

Prosecutors said that it would be violation of legal ethics to accept instructions to put a specific person in jail. The Department's job is to investigate crimes and proceed based on the results of the investigation. (V)

Professional Athletes Deny That They Denigrate Women in Their Locker Rooms

When Donald Trump ws asked about his comments on the tape, he said it was just locker-room talk. Not true, say a number of professional athletes. For example, Oakland A's pitcher Sean Doolittle tweeted: "As an athlete, I've been in locker rooms my entire adult life and uh, that's not locker room talk." As another example, former Washington quarterback Sage Rosenfels tweeted: "I was a 5 sport athlete in high school. 5 years of college football. 12 years in the NFL. Guys don't talk like that in locker rooms." Finally, Atlanta Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme had this to say: "I showered after our game but I feel I need another one after watching the debate." (V)

Federal Judge Extends Florida Voter Registration Deadline

Ever since the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in 2013 in its Shelby County v. Holder decision, Republican-controlled states and governors have been trying to reduce (minority) turnout by every means possible. So naturally, when Hurricane Matthew hit Florida, Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) was not willing to extend the registration to allow voters who were driven from their homes by the storm to register after they got back. Democrats sued and U.S. District Judge Mark Walker agreed, ordering registration to continue until a hearing set for tomorrow. Walker called Scott's excuse for not extending registration (it's not needed) "poppycock." He could extend it even further after the hearing.

What Scott was really worried about is the Latino vote in Florida. Historically, most Florida Latinos were Cuban-Americans and always voted Republican. That is not true any more. A new poll by Bendixen & Amanadi shows Clinton leading Trump in the Sunshine State 58% to 28% among that demographic. About 15% of all Florida voters are Latinos. Trump's problem isn't so much his vulgar comments about women, but something that doesn't register at all in other states: his trying to do business in Cuba in 1998. Many Cuban-Americans detest the Castro regime in Cuba and want it to collapse. Trump's breaking the federal embargo on doing business with Cuba was huge news in that community, and probably the last nail in Trump's coffin.

An additional problem for Trump (and Republicans generally in Florida) is the growth of the Puerto Rican community around Orlando. Puerto Ricans are American citizens and can move freely to any part of the U.S. by simply buying a plane ticket. Once they have established residency, they can vote. Puerto Ricans are overwhelmingly Democrats. (V)

Five Things Clinton Needs to Do to Keep Her Lead

That Hillary Clinton is now leading Donald Trump is beyond dispute. The question is only by how much. What does she need to do to keep her lead until Election Day? The Hill has provided a convenient list of five things she needs to do to stay ahead:

• Go positive and end on a high note
• More town halls and fewer rallies
• Generate enthusiasm, especially among millennials
• Take a chance, do something unconventional
• Don't let Trump provoke her

The campaign has gotten ugly, which turns off voters and depresses turnout. In turn, that generally hurts Democrats. She needs to focus on what she will do for people as president, not what's wrong with Trump. Everyone already knows that. She can talk about improving infrastructure and creating millions of jobs, early childhood education, saving Social Security, and other issues that have large majorities favoring them. Some of the issues she could talk about should be ones millennials care about, such as climate change, campaign finance reform and income inequality.

Clinton is by nature cautious, but something unexpected would get her a lot of publicity. How about saying that on day 1 she will issue an executive order making Election Day a paid holiday for all federal workers, and she will start the process to require all government contractors to make it a paid holiday for all their employees as well, as a condition for getting government contracts. That will generate news for days. (V)

Jeff Sessions: Grabbing a Woman by Her P***y Is Not Sexual Assault

Trump supporter Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) was interviewed by the conservative Weekly Standard and asked if he thought grabbing a woman by the p***y was sexual assault. His reply: "I don't characterize that as sexual assault." Sessions is not some ignorant country bumpkin; he has a law degree from the University of Alabama Law School. After some time in private practice, he was U.S. attorney for the southern district of Alabama for 12 years. He was later elected attorney general of Alabama and has served as the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He knows very well what sexual assault is. (V)

Mark Burnett Holds Trump's Fate in His Hands (or Hard Disk)

Several people who worked on Donald Trump's television show The Apprentice have said the tape released last Friday is only the tip of the iceberg. So the next question is: "Where is the rest of the iceberg?" The answer is on the hard disk of reality show producer Mark Burnett, whose shows include Survivor, Shark Tank, and The Voice. All he would have to do is dump some choice footage, and that would be the end of Donald Trump.

But, he is unlikely to do that. Although most of his political donations have been to center-left Democrats, he has also produced several conservative Christian films and TV shows. Burnett has no particular reason to want to destroy Trump and clearly doesn't want anyone else to either. To that end, he reportedly imposed a potential $5 million penalty on anyone who leaks unauthorized footage. Of course, a wealthy Democratic donor could approach someone with access to the footage and offer to pay the fine in exchange for the leak, but that seems unlikely. Or maybe not. (V)

Burnett, for his part, issued a statement late Monday in which he said that the real issue is that "contractual and legal requirements" forbid him from releasing the footage, and that he never threatened anyone with a lawsuit. Obviously, it's hard to know what the truth here is, but the odds are we're not going to see the footage. If we do, it's going to come through an anonymous source, like the "Access Hollywood" tape did. (V)

What's a Lepo?

When Donald Trump said that a lepo had fallen, viewers rushed to the online Merriam-Webster dictionary to learn what lepos are and whether they are prone to falling. It was the top search of the day. They didn't find out because only subscribers can look up unusual words (easy words are free—an interesting business model). Maybe a lepo is a baby leopard.

Of course, what Trump meant was that the Syrian city of Aleppo had been captured, but that is not true. The battle there is still raging. Still, the hunt for the lepos says something about the state of knowledge of the American people about foreign affairs. The problem is apparently not restricted to Gary Johnson. (V)

#MuslimsReportStuff

During the debate, Trump was asked about whether he still plans to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. He didn't answer the question with a direct yes or no. Instead, he said there would be "extreme vetting," but didn't explain what that meant. He did say that Muslims were expected to report it "when they see something going on." Muslims have taken him seriously and created the hashtag #MuslimsReportStuff on Twitter. Here are a few of the tweets:

• There is a man getting too close to a woman at the #debate trying to grab her by the *****
• I need to report I saw an orange haired man on my TV scaring children
• I'd like to report a creeper who stalked a woman on the debate stage tonight
• Hello, I'd like to report a dangerous racist misogynist demagogue on my TV ... yes, I'll hold
• I'd like to report that words matter
• Local Muslim here chiming in to report that 1 in 4 women in the U.S. experience domestic violence

There are many more of course. You should be careful asking for things. You might get them. (V)

Trump Taj Mahal Closes its Doors

It was once the most prominent and profitable casino in Atlantic City, and was dubbed the "Eighth Wonder of the World" by its namesake. But now, the Trump Taj Mahal is no more. The last guests checked out on Sunday night, the last few gamblers were literally cashing in their chips as the second presidential debate was wrapping up.

Now, in fairness, Trump has no real connection to the casino anymore. His name is on it, but only because he lost a lawsuit whose purpose was to remove it. Still, he can't be thrilled about the timing—now the Trump Taj Mahal joins Trump steaks and Trump vodka and numerous other Trump-branded products on the trash heap. The candidate might have hoped that the casino could limp along for another month, but the way things are going, Atlantic City itself may not make it that long. The Las Vegas of the East is down to just seven casinos, and three of those are currently in Chapter 11. That's a far cry from the dozen or so casinos of the glory days. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

North Carolina is close, but we knew that already. Clinton seems to be pulling ahead in Wisconsin (but see below). (V)

State	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	43%	42%	8%	Oct 01	Oct 06	High Point U.
Wisconsin	43%	35%	8%	Oct 04	Oct 05	Loras Coll.

Today's Senate Polls

The North Carolina Senate race is close, too, but we knew that as well. What we didn't know is that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has a lead over former senator Russ Feingold. This contradicts many other polls. Could Loras College have sampled too many Republicans? That seems unlikely because its presidential poll seems to have too many Democrats. This is very strange. The takeaway is that polls from small colleges with little polling experience shouldn't be taken too seriously until confirmed. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	42%	Richard Burr*	47%	Oct 01	Oct 06	High Point U.
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	40%	Ron Johnson*	45%	Oct 04	Oct 05	Loras Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster and Zenger