How Predictive Are the Polls One Week Out?

ABC News has been polling presidential elections since 1992 so we have some data on how good they are. Here are the data:

Year	Candidates	One week out	Final poll	Election results	1 Week correct?
2016	Clinton-Trump	45% - 46%	?	?	?
2012	Obama-Romney	48% - 49%	50% - 47%	51% - 47%	No
2008	Obama-McCain	52% - 45%	53% - 44%	53% - 46%	Yes
2004	Kerry-Bush	49% - 48%	48% - 49%	48% - 51%	No
2000	Gore-Bush	45% - 48%	45% - 48%	48% - 48%	Yes
1996	Clinton-Dole	54% - 35%	51% - 39%	49% - 41%	Yes
1992	Clinton-Bush	41% - 34%	44% - 37%	43% - 37%	Yes

For the most part, ABC News has gotten it right, except for 2012 and 2004, when the network called it wrong a week before the election. Note, however, that ABC's final 2012 and 2004 polls were correct, so, not surprisingly, the final poll has a better track record than the poll a week before the election. Right now, ABC is calling the election for Trump. Will it get the results right? Come back in a week. (V)

Don't Read Too Much Into Polling Changes

ABC News is a bit bearish on Hillary Clinton, but the New York Times' Nate Cohn isn't. While the polling impact of James Comey's letter to Congress is not fully known yet, Cohn observes that the polling shifts we've seen in this election have not proven to be enduring. The tides may ebb or flow a bit, but ultimately Hillary Clinton's numbers remain within a fairly well-defined range (low to high-40s nationally), as do Donald Trump's (mid-30s to low-40s nationally). There's every reason to suspect the same will hold this week.

Further, Cohn argues, whatever shifts we do see don't actually represent voters changing their minds. He believes (as do we) that at this point in the process, most voters are fairly set in their choices. However, quite a few of those voters are making their choices very begrudgingly, left with two options that they consider to be unsatisfactory. The theory is that when something bad happens to Clinton, the begrudging Clinton voters become less likely to admit to pollsters (and to themselves) the unhappy choice they have made. And when something bad happens to Trump, the same thing happens with begrudging Trump voters. This thesis is hard to prove directly, but it certainly does seem to explain the patterns we've seen in the last few months. (Z)

Seven Questions about Turnout Could Determine Who Wins

We've now gotten to the point where all the pundits are yelling: "turnout, turnout, turnout," and for good reason. That matters more than TV ads at this point. But turnout isn't just a matter of whether 125 million or 135 million people vote, but who votes. Here are a few key questions about turnout that matter:

• How much of a ground-game advantage does Clinton have?
• Can Trump find "hidden" voters and get them to the polls?
• Is Trump's downward spiral over the last month demoralizing Republican voters?
• Is split-ticket voting back from the dead this year?
• Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Will it matter?
• Can a Democratic get-out-the-vote operation work in places like Arizona and Georgia?
• Clinton is polling better than Obama in 2012, so will over-confident Democrats stay home?

In short, there are so many factors at play here that it is hard to predict turnout next week.

Note that Clinton is running ahead of where Obama was on this date in 2012 (click on "2012" in legend to see that). He was at 281 electoral votes and she is now at 323. In 2012, Romney was leading in Colorado and North Carolina, states that Clinton is likely to win. Also, Florida and Virginia were tied then and look like they will go blue this year. The two states Obama had nailed down and Clinton might lose are Iowa and Ohio, but Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia are worth 66 EVs and Iowa plus Ohio are worth only 24. (V)

Early Voting Tells Some Important Tales

As we draw ever closer to Election Day, trends in early voting are becoming clearer. Tuesday saw some good news for both campaigns.

Starting with the Clinton good news (aka the Trump bad news), surveys conducted by TargetSmart indicate that 28% of early-voting Republicans in Florida are casting their ballots for Hillary Clinton. If this presages what's going to happen on Election Day (even if the final percentage drops to, say, 15%), Donald Trump's goose is cooked. He's not likely to peel off many voters from Clinton, and so an implausibly large number of Democrats would have to stay home in order for The Donald to make up the difference. And without Florida, he has no real path to 270 electoral votes.

Now to the Trump good news. Among black voters, early voting is down quite a bit, particularly in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina—roughly 20%. Since 90% of black voters vote for Democrats (likely more this year, actually), that's a huge loss for Hillary Clinton. The popular explanation for this is that Clinton, for a number of reasons, does not engender the enthusiasm that Barack Obama did. That's likely true, but as Slate's Jamelle Bouie notes, it also appears to be a product (particularly in North Carolina) of GOP efforts to curtail the black vote through reduced early voting, pruning of voter rolls, and the like. The Clinton campaign has sent Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) on a tour of small, majority-black communities in the Tar Heel State. Whether he makes an impact or not, it's certainly looking like it's going to be close there. (Z)

Another Former President May Be Voting for Clinton

George P. Bush, son of Jeb and nephew of George W., has gotten into the family business, serving as a land commissioner in Texas. He was at a rally on Tuesday—one wonders what kind of people attend a land commissioner rally—and he let slip that his uncle may well be casting his ballot for Hillary Clinton.

There was little doubt that George W. wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump, given that they are very different kinds of Republicans, along with Trump's treatment of brother Jeb. Now, it seems he has reached the same conclusion his father did: Better to vote for a less-than-ideal Democrat than for a third-party candidate. If the news is true, then that will give Clinton the complete set of ex-presidents. In fact, with three Democrats and two Republicans, it's a full house. (Z)

Weld Defends Clinton

Typically, politicians promote their own candidacies and pooh-pooh the candidacies of their opponents. But 2016 has been anything but typical, and so it is that Libertarian VP nominee Bill Weld gave a remarkably candid interview to MSNBC's Rachel Maddow. In it, he acknowledged that his ticket is not going to win, and then went on to criticize James Comey and defend Hillary Clinton. "I'm here vouching for Mrs. Clinton, and I think it's high time somebody did," Weld remarked. Indeed, given the tone and tenor of the appearance, it's not inconceivable that Weld and George W. Bush (see above) will be voting the same way for president on Election Day. (Z)

Clinton Raises $11 Million after FBI Announcement

One upside for Hillary Clinton, after FBI Director James Comey announced that he found some of her emails on Anthony Weiner's computer, is that frightened Democrats ponied up $11 million for her in three days, her largest haul since securing the Democratic nomination.

The money could come in handy as the race appears to tighten. Clinton has been forced to spend money in states where she had long since stopped advertising, including Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico. Until last week, they were in the bag for her.

She is running two ads in those places. The first one features clips of Trump saying he will bomb the s*** out of ISIS and that he knows more than the generals about military strategy. The second one features some of his more controversial statements while children watch him on television.

The Trump campaign has also released two new ads. The first is a TV ad saying that Clinton will lead to stagnation, fewer jobs, rising crime, and America diminished at home and abroad. The second is a radio ad has Liberty University president Jerry Falwell, Jr. saying: "As Christians, we cannot allow our Supreme Court to be stacked with liberal justices who will transform America and threaten our freedoms." It is, obviously, aimed at evangelicals. (V)

Union Workers Could Hand the Election to Trump

The Transport Workers Union in Pennsylvania went on strike yesterday, so public transit in Philadelphia and surrounding areas has ground to a halt. If the strike continues until Election Day, many voters might not be able to get to the polls, and this could depress the vote in this heavily Democratic region. That might be enough to hand Pennsylvania, a critical state, to Donald Trump, and potentially with it, the keys to the White House. Voting early is not an option in Pennsylvania, and it is too late to request an absentee ballot. (V)

Trump Asks Early Clinton Voters to Change Their Vote

A few states, among them Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, allow voters who have cast an early ballot to revoke their earlier vote and vote again. Donald Trump called on early Clinton voters to retract their vote and vote again on Election Day. The procedure is not easy and applies only to absentee ballots, where election officials can find the early vote in its sealed envelope and destroy it. People who voted early in person and put their ballot in the ballot box can't vote again because there is no way to find and destroy the first vote. (V)

Sleeping Like the Enemy

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both wealthy New Yorkers, but they have something else in common: Both fly home almost every night to sleep in their own beds. This daily detour is a tremendous waste of the candidates' time, even for multibedded candidates like these. Clinton has a brick Georgian-style mansion in D.C. as well as a five-bedroom colonial house in Chappaqua, NY. Trump has Trump Tower in Manhattan, Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and hotels in various other states where he can stay. This pattern is unusual. Mitt Romney, who had plenty of beds to call his own, just stayed wherever he was campaigning. After all, even the presidential suite at a top hotel is cheaper than flying home, not to mention less wearing on the candidate. Of course, if the final rally for a day is in East Podunk and the only lodging is Motel 6, then it's homeward bound.

When Trump uses his aging, gas-guzzling 757, he can't land at Teterboro, NJ—the airport of choice for wealthy New Yorkers with their own planes—because the 100,000-pound plane is too heavy for its runways. Instead, he has to land at LaGuardia, which he has called a third-world airport. When Clinton is flying to Chappaqua, she uses Westchester County Airport (HPN), 8 miles south of her home. (V)

House Freedom Caucus to Hold Secret Meeting Today

Members of the House Freedom Caucus will hold a "secret" meeting in D.C. today, although since Politico has reported it, it is not so secret any more. The main agenda point is what to do about Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), whom they strongly dislike. The Republican conference will vote on its preference for speaker by secret ballot a week after the election, even though the speaker is chosen by the full House in January. It is not clear why the Freedom Caucus is bothering to meet today, since its strategy (and power) will surely depend on the composition of the new House. If the number of Republicans in the House who are not in their caucus is 218 or more, nothing they do will matter, and Paul Ryan will be reelected as speaker. If that number is less than 218, it will get interesting, as Ryan may not get enough votes to win, potentially forcing him to negotiate with Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to get her members to support him. She has been around politics long enough to have a pretty good idea of what she could extract from him in return. So even if the Republicans hold the House, life could get quite dicey for Ryan. (V)

Republicans Have a Good Senate Map in 2018

The Democrats have a decent shot at getting 50 or more Senate seats next week, but their celebration will last only two years. The 2018 Senate map looks extremely bad for the Democrats, with at least seven Democratic incumbents facing tough races. Here is the map:

Here is a list of the senators in the states with a question mark above. In a year with depressed Democratic turnout, they could all be in big trouble, especially if Hillary Clinton is president and her approval rating is low.

State	Incumbent	2012 Margin
Florida	Bill Nelson	D+13
Indiana	Joe Donnelly	D+6
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	D+16
Montana	Jon Tester	D+2
North Dakota	Heidi Heitkamp	D+1
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	D+6
West Virginia	Joe Manchin	D+24

Even though some of the Democrats above won by substantial margins in 2012, in 2018 they will be facing far less friendly electorates than in 2012 because turnout is vastly lower in midterm elections, and the missing voters skew overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2012, 57% of the eligible voters turned out. In 2014 it was 36%. That is a dramatic drop, and 2018 is likely to be just as bad. This means all of the above Democrats will be in tough fights.

In addition, there were special factors in some of the 2012 races. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) easily beat Todd "legitimate rape" Akin. Most likely, the Missouri Republican Party will advise her 2018 challenger not to discuss rape too much, if possible. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) had it easy. The Republican Party of West Virginia couldn't find anyone who wanted to run, so by default, businessman John Raese, whose hobby is running for public office and being crushed, became the Republican candidate. In 2018, the Republicans will surely be able to find a member of the House or state legislature who is willing to try.

Of course, turnout isn't everything. Candidates, the economy, the popularity of the president, and more also matter, Nevertheless, unless the Democrats get 53 or more seats in the 2016 election, they are going to struggle to keep their majority in 2018. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Not too much to see here, really. That North Carolina poll that puts Donald Trump up by 7 points is at odds with virtually every other poll of the Tar Heel State; we're not buying it. (Z)

State	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Start	End	Pollster
California	56%	35%	4%	Oct 28	Oct 31	SurveyUSA
Florida	48%	40%	3%	Oct 25	Oct 30	TargetSmart/Wm. & Mary
Illinois	45%	34%	6%	Oct 26	Oct 27	Loras Coll.
Illinois	53%	41%	2%	Oct 27	Oct 30	Emerson Coll.
Kentucky	32%	56%		Oct 26	Oct 28	Cygnal
Kentucky	37%	54%	1%	Oct 25	Oct 30	Western Kentucky U.
Maine	42%	37%	9%	Oct 24	Oct 26	Maine Peoples Res. Ctr.
Maine	46%	42%	5%	Oct 28	Oct 30	Emerson Coll.
Missouri	38%	52%	4%	Oct 28	Oct 31	Monmouth U.
North Carolina	42%	41%	3%	Oct 23	Oct 27	Elon U.
North Carolina	44%	51%	3%	Oct 28	Oct 31	SurveyUSA
Oregon	41%	34%	4%	Oct 24	Oct 29	DHM Research
South Dakota	35%	49%	7%	Oct 24	Oct 26	Nielson Bros.
Virginia	48%	42%	6%	Oct 27	Oct 30	George Mason U.
Virginia	49%	45%	3%	Oct 28	Oct 30	Emerson Coll.

Today's Senate Polls

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) better be getting his LinkedIn profile up to date, because he's going to be looking for a job starting November 9. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) should be nervous, too. Not enough data yet to think that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) or Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) should be starting to sweat, but with a couple more adverse polls, we could be there. As with yesterday, those Colorado numbers are not credible. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	Ray Metcalfe	26%	Lisa Murkowski*	52%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Alabama	Ron Crumpton	36%	Richard Shelby*	60%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Arkansas	Conner Eldridge	44%	John Boozman*	54%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Arizona	Ann Kirkpatrick	46%	John McCain*	49%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
California	Kamala Harris	47%	Loretta Sanchez (D)	27%	Oct 28	Oct 31	SurveyUSA
California	Kamala Harris	50%	Loretta Sanchez (D)	30%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Colorado	Michael Bennet*	48%	Darryl Glenn	46%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Connecticut	Richard Blumenthal*	59%	Dan Carter	38%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Florida	Patrick Murphy	43%	Marco Rubio*	49%	Oct 25	Oct 30	TargetSmart/Wm. & Mary
Florida	Patrick Murphy	47%	Marco Rubio*	49%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Georgia	Jim Barksdale	41%	Johnny Isakson*	50%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Hawaii	Brian Schatz*	69%	John Carroll	27%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Iowa	Patty Judge	41%	Chuck Grassley*	56%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Idaho	Jerry Sturgill	34%	Mike Crapo*	61%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Illinois	Tammy Duckworth	42%	Mark Kirk*	34%	Oct 26	Oct 27	Loras Coll.
Illinois	Tammy Duckworth	54%	Mark Kirk*	36%	Oct 27	Oct 30	Emerson Coll.
Illinois	Tammy Duckworth	57%	Mark Kirk*	38%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Indiana	Evan Bayh	46%	Todd Young	50%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Kansas	Patrick Wiesner	39%	Jerry Moran*	56%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Kentucky	Jim Gray	39%	Rand Paul*	55%	Oct 25	Oct 30	Western Kentucky U.
Kentucky	Jim Gray	42%	Rand Paul*	52%	Oct 26	Oct 28	Cygnal
Kentucky	Jim Gray	46%	Rand Paul*	52%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Maryland	Chris Van Hollen	66%	Kathy Szeliga	31%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Missouri	Jason Kander	46%	Roy Blunt*	47%	Oct 28	Oct 31	Monmouth U.
Missouri	Jason Kander	51%	Roy Blunt*	45%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	40%	Richard Burr*	44%	Oct 23	Oct 27	Elon U.
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	43%	Richard Burr*	49%	Oct 28	Oct 31	SurveyUSA
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	47%	Richard Burr*	43%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
North Dakota	Eliot Glassheim	27%	John Hoeven*	71%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Nevada	Catherine Cortez-Masto	47%	Joe Heck	47%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
New York	Chuck Schumer*	68%	Wendy Long	28%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Ohio	Ted Strickland	40%	Rob Portman*	55%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Oklahoma	Mike Workman	35%	James Lankford*	62%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Oregon	Ron Wyden*	62%	Mark Callahan	34%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Pennsylvania	Katie McGinty	49%	Pat Toomey*	46%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
South Carolina	Thomas Dixon	39%	Tim Scott*	56%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
South Dakota	Jay Williams	31%	John Thune*	67%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
South Dakota	Jay Williams	35%	John Thune*	54%	Oct 24	Oct 26	Nielson Bros.
Utah	Misty Snow	34%	Mike Lee*	62%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Vermont	Patrick Leahy*	64%	Scott Milne	33%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Washington	Patty Murray*	61%	Chris Vance	36%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	49%	Ron Johnson*	49%	Oct 25	Oct 31	SurveyMonkey

* Denotes incumbent


* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster and Zenger