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News from the Votemaster

Shooting in Colorado Unlikely to Become a Campaign Issue

Both Democratic and Republican strategists agree that the horrific murders in a Colorado movie theater are not likely to enter the political arena. Republicans are either happy with current gun laws or want to loosen them, but this is not the moment to try. Democrats are scared to death of the subject and the power of the National Rifle Association. Nothing is going to change. Politico has a nice piece that is more cynical--but more truthful--than most of the reporting on the shooting.

President Obama said: "Michelle and I will be fortunate enough to hug our girls a little tighter tonight." Mitt Romney said: "Each of us will hold our kids a little closer." By Tuesday, the hugfest will be over and Obama will be back to attacking Romney for not releasing his tax returns and Romney will be back to attacking Obama for not fixing the economy.

People who remember the 1999 Columbine massacre may be thinking: "Why does this always happen in Colorado?" The answer is simple: it doesn't, as this map shows.

National Senate and Congressional Committees Announce June Totals

The six national fundraising committees announced their totals yesterday. The RNC greatly outraised the DNC but the numbers aren't completely meaningful because the DNC and Obama campaigns are essentially interchangeable as are the RNC and Romney campaigns. The Obama campaign has $98 million in the bank vs. the Romney campaign's $22 million, neither of which is reflected in the committee totals. For the Senate, the Democrats raised more and have more cash in the bank. For the House, it is the reverse. Here are the numbers.

Committee June On hand
DNC $21 millions $37 million
DSCC $8 millions $31 million
DCCC $11 million $33 million
RNC $40 million $89 million
NRSC $5 million $24 million
NRCC $11 million $41 million

Note: these figures do not include what the many 527s and superPACs have raised, of course.

More Women Running for the House Than Ever Before

A total of 296 women have filed to run for seats in the House of Representatives this year, breaking the previous record of 262. Currently 75 women are serving in the House. The record is 76, and with so many female candidates, that record could fall in November. Currently 17 of the 100 senators are women. For a comprehensive look at women in Congress, this is an excellent resource.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
California 52% 33%   Jul 16 Jul 17 Pepperdine University
Florida 48% 43%   Jul 17 Jul 19 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania 48% 44%   Jul 18 Jul 18 Rasmussen

Today's Senate Polls

A surprising development in Florida is that a SurveyUSA poll shows Obama with a substantial lead over Romney while at the same time Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is trailing Rep. Connie MacGillicuddy (R-FL). Not only does Obama have no coattails, but he seems to have negative coattails. That seems unlikely. This poll is probably an outlier showing Obama too strong and Nelson too weak.

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
California Dianne Feinstein 49% Elizabeth Emken 30%     Jul 16 Jul 17 Pepperdine University
Florida Bill Nelson 42% Connie McGillicuddy 48%     Jul 17 Jul 19 SurveyUSA
Ohio Sherrod Brown 46% Josh Mandel 42%     Jul 18 Jul 18 Rasmussen
Washington Maria Cantwell 51% Unknown 40%     Jul 16 Jul 18 SurveyUSA