Romney Sweeps all Five Northeast Primaries     Permalink

With only Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as official opponents, Mitt Romney swept to easy victories in five primaries yesterday. Nevertheless, even with such weak opponents, in only one state, Connecticut, did he crack 2/3 of the vote, and there just barely with 67.4%. And this is in the region of the country where he is best known and where he is judged by how he governed in Massachusetts rather than by what he was forced to say to placate the base on the primary campaign trail. Nevertheless, come election day, most Republicans are either going to vote for him or vote against President Obama, which is ultimately scored the same way. Here are the primary results.

Romney now has about 844 delegates, with Santorum second at 260, Gingrich third at 137, and Paul fourth with 79 delegates. Although Romney needs 1144 delegates to get the nomination, it is hard to see how he can be stopped at this point. Romney clearly understands that the primaries are effectively over and the general election campaign has started. In his victory speech yesterday, Romney ignored his nominal primary opponents and just attacked Obama's economic policies. He said his vision is that of free people starting new business and hiring more people, making labor scarce and forcing wages up. Probably nobody, not even Obama, would disagree with that vision much, but the devil is in the details. A lot of those details, like the Republican tax plan, which cuts the top tax rate and (partially) pays for it by cutting middle-class entitlements like Medicare, are going to be front and center for the next 7 months.

Tom Smith Wins Pennsylvania GOP Senatorial Primary     Permalink

While the presidential primaries are getting most of the news today, there were other important elections held yesterday as well. In Pennsylvania, wealthy businessman Tom Smith, who spent $5 million of his own money in the campaign, emerged the winner of a multiway Republican primary. He will face Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in the general election. No doubt Smith thinks daily about how another rich businessman, Ron Johnson, defeated incumbent senator Russ Feingold in Wisconsin in 2010. However, there are clear differences between the two races. First, Pennsylvania is a blue state and Wisconsin is a purple state, so any Democrat starts out with an edge in the Keystone state. Second, Casey is far more conservative than the outspoken and liberal Feingold, making it much more difficult for Smith to attack Casey from the right. For example, Smith can't go after Casey for supporting abortion since Casey also opposes abortion. Third, although Pennsylvania normally votes Democratic in presidential elections, Obama is likely to spend at least some time and money campaigning there, which will have the effect of activating the Democratic base and getting them to vote. None of the other states held senatorial primaries yesterday. New York's is on June 26 and Connecticut's is on Aug. 14.

Critz Defeats Altmire in Pennsylvania Democratic House Primary     Permalink

In another widely watched race, Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA) defeated Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) in a contest which pitted two Democratic incumbents against each other. This battle was set up when the Republicans won control of the state legislature and governor's mansion in 2010, allowing them to draw the new congressional district lines.

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