List of Upcoming Primaries     Permalink

Several people have asked why the map hasn't been updated yet. The reason is that in some states the candidates aren't known yet and the software is not set up to track multiple hypothetical races. By the end of June most (but not all) of the key primaries will have been held though.

Below is a list of the remaining primaries. In some cases a runoff date has been set, but the runoff may or may not be needed, depending on what happens in the primary. In most states, any candidate getting 50% or more of the primary vote wins outright; otherwise, there is a primary between the top two finishers in each party. There are competitive primaries in many states for the House and lower offices for both parties, but only the senatorial and gubernatorial races are colored in below.

Some of the races are worth commenting on. There is a competitive primary for governor in Alabama between Rep. Artur Davis (D) and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D), but no matter who wins it, the Republican who wins the primary is the overwhelming favorite. The contest is only of interest because Davis is black and it will be interesting to see how well a black candidate does statewide in Alabama.

The first real biggie is the rematch of Sen. Blanche Lincon (D-AR) vs. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D-AR). In the first round, Lincoln edged Halter by 2% but a rich businessman got 13%. Now he is not in the race. This is a battle between the unions and lefty blogosphere on one side (for Halter) and the official Democratic Party establishment on the other (for Lincoln). It is expected to be close.

California has two huge battles. Former e-Bay CEO Meg Whitman is spending half a million dollars a day to get the Republican nomination. Her only problem is that her opponent, Steve Poizner, is also a billionaire. Much mud is being thrown and the ultimate winner will probably be the Democrat, Jerry Brown, who was already governor of 8 years back in the 1970s and 1980s. The Senate GOP primary is just as messy, with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who was fired by the board for incompetence, running against former congressman Tom Campbell. Also in the race is tea partier Chuck Devote, but polls show he is running a distant third. The Democrats are rooting for Fiorina since she will be a far easier target for Sen. Barbara Boxer to shoot at due to her extreme views on many issues. Also, historically, rich business executives often run for the Senate but rarely win. Money is important but it isn't everything.

Another big race in June is the Nevada senatorial primary. The Republicans are trying very hard to knock off majority leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). Sue Lowden, a multimillionaire former chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party is the establishment favorite, but she damaged herself very badly when she suggested paying for medical care by bringing the doctor a chicken. Many people have pointed out that to cover heart bypass surgery you'd have to give the doctor a whole chicken ranch. As Lowden has tanked in the polls, tea partier Sharron Angle has moved up rapidly. She might pull it off, giving the tea partiers another big win (like Rand Paul's win in Kentucky). But as usual in politics, be careful what you wish for. You might get it. If the Republicans can beat Reid, the new majority leader will be either Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) or Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), both far more ferocious than the meek Reid. Recent polling shows Lowden coul beat Reid but Angle might not be able to.

While not so important politically, there is a human interest factor in the South Carolina gubernatorial race. The leading Republican to succeed Gov. Mark Sanford, who was driven from office by a sex scandal, is herself involved in a sex scandal. A leading right-wing blogger in South Carolina has said they had an affair and released phone records showing they talking on the phone for hours on end, sometimes until 5 A.M. The oddities here are (1) a sex-scandal-drenched governor might be replaced by another one and (2) this time it is a female politician involved in the scandal. The candidate, state senator Nikki Haley, denies everything and would prefer to discuss the issues. Sound familiar?

Another top-tier race is tea partier J.D. Hayworth (R) against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). While McCain is universally known in Arizona, he is not universally liked. Still, he is the favorite because Hayworth, a former congressman, is so extreme.

The last tea partier vs. establishment race is in New Hampshire, where appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayote is facing upstart Ovide Lamontagne. New Hampshire has its own style of Libertarianism though, and may not be fertile ground for Lamontagne, a lawyer in private practice.

Finally, the personal feud between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa that cost the Democrats a House seat because they split the massive Democratic vote and allowed the Republican to sneak in will come to a head on Sept. 18 when they face off again in the Democratic primary. Whoever wins will be the sole Democrat on the ballot, and will take the seat back.

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