Survey Results
Yesterday we had a little survey.
If you missed it, click on "Previous report" above and do it.
There were 105,034 responses (out of 990,000 visitors yesterday, which is an enormous percentage).
Most readers are Democrats, despite a serious
attempt to attract people from all over the spectrum including thousands of dollars spent on ads on
numerous conservative Websites (as well as progressive Websites).
That didn't bring in so many new conservative visitors as hoped for in part because there is nothing
in the conservative blogosphere with the volume of Daily Kos or TPM.
Below are the raw numbers. Crosstabs will follow in a few days.
If you want to see the data for the 2004 survey, it is
here.
U.S. Citizens only: Who will you vote for (or who have you already voted for)?
Barack Obama: 83462 (88.43%)
John McCain: 8144 (8.63%)
Ralph Nader: 556 (0.59%)
Bob Barr: 717 (0.76%)
Cynthia McKinney: 355 (0.38%)
Other: 510 (0.54%)
Undecided: 636 (0.67%)
Not answered: 9403
Noncitizens only: Which candidate would you like to see win?
Barack Obama: 12460 (85.25%)
John McCain: 1203 (8.23%)
Ralph Nader: 239 (1.64%)
Bob Barr: 101 (0.69%)
Cynthia McKinney: 115 (0.79%)
Other: 197 (1.35%)
Undecided: 301 (2.06%)
Not answered: 89167
Which issue is most important to you?
Economy: 57639 (56.52%)
Taxes: 2614 (2.56%)
Iraq: 6398 (6.27%)
National Security: 3972 (3.89%)
Health care: 8960 (8.79%)
The environment: 8234 (8.07%)
Abortion: 1449 (1.42%)
Energy: 5220 (5.12%)
Other: 7501 (7.35%)
Not answered: 1797
Do you think Joe Biden is qualified to be President?
Yes: 94782 (91.91%)
No: 5587 (5.42%)
Undecided: 2760 (2.68%)
Not answered: 655
Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be President?
Yes: 6857 (6.66%)
No: 94517 (91.78%)
Undecided: 1608 (1.56%)
Not answered: 802
Would you like to see the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate?
yes: 79152 (77.11%)
no: 15221 (14.83%)
undecided: 8275 (8.06%)
Not answered: 1136
How well is President Bush doing his job?
Excellent: 568 (0.55%)
Good: 2371 (2.30%)
Fair: 4909 (4.76%)
Poor: 14060 (13.65%)
Terrible: 81124 (78.74%)
Not answered: 752
This election aside, which party do you normally identify with?
Democratic: 67791 (65.71%)
Republican: 8971 (8.70%)
Libertarian: 3444 (3.34%)
Green: 3419 (3.31%)
Other: 966 (0.94%)
None (independent): 18582 (18.01%)
Not answered: 611
Which ideology best describes you?
Liberal: 49995 (48.54%)
Moderate: 39969 (38.80%)
Conservative: 7151 (6.94%)
None of these: 5891 (5.72%)
Not answered: 778
Where do you live?
Northeast: 25501 (24.70%)
South: 17323 (16.78%)
Midwest: 23524 (22.79%)
West: 27313 (26.46%)
Canada: 2324 (2.25%)
Europe: 4810 (4.66%)
Asia/Oz/NZ: 1386 (1.34%)
Other: 1057 (1.02%)
Not answered: 546
What is your gender?
Male: 82104 (80.39%)
Female: 20022 (19.61%)
Not answered: 1658
What is your age?
<18: 2010 (1.95%)
18-29: 25480 (24.68%)
30-39: 25720 (24.91%)
40-49: 21971 (21.28%)
50-59: 17379 (16.83%)
60-69: 8632 (8.36%)
>=70: 2067 (2.00%)
Not answered: 525
Some Senators Are Calling for Stevens to Resign
A small but growing group of senators are making one of those tough calls politicians love to talk about--they
are saying the Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) should
resign.
The group includes John McCain and Barack Obama, who don't want to appear soft on felons, but also
includes Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), and Sen. John Sununu (R-NH).
Perhaps they are unaware that there is an election in a week and if the people of Alaska want to get rid of
Stevens they can handle the job themselves. Why are they calling for his head now? For Democrats, it makes them
look good and emphasizes that Republicans are corrupt. For Republicans, they want to put as much distance as
they can between themselves and Stevens.
Smith, Coleman, and Sununu are all in difficult reelection battles and all appear to be losing. All of them
fully understand the consequences of appearing to condone the actions of a corrupt senator.
Also, should Stevens be reelected and the Democrats move to expel him from
the Senate in January, Republican senators would have to vote on the expulsion motion, something few of them particularly
want to do as a vote either way will offend many Republicans. For them, the best-case scenario is that
Stevens wins reelection, and then resigns, forcing a special election to fill the seat. This election would
probably pit Sarah Palin against Mark Begich, something Palin has a decent chance of winning. Of course, if
Begich wins on Tuesday, it doesn't make a huge difference if Stevens leaves the Senate now or on January 5,
other than a couple of votes if the Senate is called back in session after the election.
McCain's Pollster Foresees Tight Race
John McCain's pollster, Bill McInturff,
foresees
a close election. Whether he really has data supporting this or this is just brave talk remains to be seen.
But elections often get closer in the last week as the undecideds finally get off the fence.
Weekly Reader Calls It for Obama
In contrast to McInturff, the
Weekly Reader's
quadrennial poll of students from kindergarten to 12th grade predicts that Obama will win big time,
with 55% of the vote
to McCain's 43%. This survey has been surprisingly accurate in the past, getting 12 of the past 13
presidential elections right, missing only Bill Clinton's win in a 3-way race in 1992.
The survey's accuracy may be due to children getting most of their political views from their parents and the
children's views may more accurately reflect what their parents are really thinking than what the parents
are telling the pollsters. Thanks to David Richardson for the pointer.
Comparison of 2004 and 2008
It is instructive to compare the state of polling in 2004 as of the Tuesday before the election with
state of polling yesterday. The table below shows the the Kerry - Bush score on Oct. 26, 2004 in column 2.
Hawaii is an outlier because there was one freaky poll, but, on Oct. 26, 2004, the map showed Kerry ahead of
Bush by 9 points in California, by 8 points in Illinois, and behind Bush by 8 points in New Mexico.
The third column is the Kerry - Bush election result. For example, the prediction of a 9-point lead in
California and an 8-point lead in Illinois were pretty good as Kerry won those states by 10.3 and 10.0 points
respectively. The mean of the second column was a Bush lead of 4.4 points whereas the final results was a Bush
lead of 6.0 points. These averages are not weighted by population, so they are not predictors of the popular
vote, but they do give an idea of how good the 51 polls were a week before the election.
Hawaii |
-1.0 |
8.7 |
41.0 |
42.0 |
Montana |
-21.0 |
-20.8 |
0.0 |
21.0 |
North Dakota |
-20.0 |
-27.4 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
California |
9.0 |
10.3 |
27.0 |
18.0 |
Illinois |
8.0 |
10.0 |
26.0 |
18.0 |
New Mexico |
-8.0 |
-1.1 |
10.0 |
18.0 |
Indiana |
-13.0 |
-20.9 |
3.0 |
16.0 |
Georgia |
-17.0 |
-16.7 |
-3.0 |
14.0 |
Iowa |
-3.0 |
-0.9 |
11.0 |
14.0 |
New York |
21.0 |
17.3 |
34.0 |
13.0 |
South Dakota |
-22.0 |
-21.5 |
-9.0 |
13.0 |
Wisconsin |
-2.0 |
0.4 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
Wyoming |
-36.0 |
-39.9 |
-23.0 |
13.0 |
Alaska |
-27.0 |
-26.9 |
-15.0 |
12.0 |
Connecticut |
9.0 |
10.3 |
21.0 |
12.0 |
New Jersey |
7.0 |
6.2 |
19.0 |
12.0 |
Texas |
-23.0 |
-22.9 |
-11.0 |
12.0 |
Washington |
5.0 |
7.3 |
17.0 |
12.0 |
North Carolina |
-10.0 |
-12.6 |
1.0 |
11.0 |
Michigan |
8.0 |
3.4 |
18.0 |
10.0 |
Nebraska |
-29.0 |
-34.5 |
-19.0 |
10.0 |
Virginia |
-3.0 |
-8.7 |
7.0 |
10.0 |
Delaware |
7.0 |
7.5 |
16.0 |
9.0 |
Maryland |
10.0 |
12.4 |
19.0 |
9.0 |
Nevada |
-6.0 |
-2.6 |
3.0 |
9.0 |
Oklahoma |
-33.0 |
-31.2 |
-24.0 |
9.0 |
Ohio |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
Pennsylvania |
3.0 |
2.2 |
11.0 |
8.0 |
Vermont |
13.0 |
20.2 |
21.0 |
8.0 |
Kansas |
-19.0 |
-25.7 |
-12.0 |
7.0 |
Oregon |
6.0 |
4.0 |
13.0 |
7.0 |
South Carolina |
-18.0 |
-17.2 |
-11.0 |
7.0 |
Colorado |
1.0 |
-6.2 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
Minnesota |
5.0 |
3.5 |
11.0 |
6.0 |
Maine |
11.0 |
8.1 |
16.0 |
5.0 |
Massachusetts |
14.0 |
25.1 |
19.0 |
5.0 |
Missouri |
-5.0 |
-7.3 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
Florida |
-1.0 |
-5.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
Kentucky |
-17.0 |
-19.8 |
-13.0 |
4.0 |
D.C. |
67.0 |
80.2 |
69.0 |
2.0 |
Rhode Island |
20.0 |
20.6 |
22.0 |
2.0 |
Utah |
-37.0 |
-44.7 |
-36.0 |
1.0 |
Idaho |
-29.0 |
-38.1 |
-29.0 |
0.0 |
Arizona |
-5.0 |
-10.4 |
-6.0 |
-1.0 |
Louisiana |
-15.0 |
-14.6 |
-16.0 |
-1.0 |
New Hampshire |
9.0 |
1.3 |
8.0 |
-1.0 |
Tennessee |
-12.0 |
-14.3 |
-14.0 |
-2.0 |
Mississippi |
-9.0 |
-20.3 |
-12.0 |
-3.0 |
West Virginia |
-3.0 |
-12.9 |
-8.0 |
-5.0 |
Alabama |
-12.0 |
-25.7 |
-20.0 |
-8.0 |
Arkansas |
0.0 |
-9.8 |
-11.0 |
-11.0 |
Average |
-4.4 |
-6.0 |
3.9 |
8.3 |
Now consider column 4. It shows the difference between Obama and McCain a week before the 2008 election
(taken from yesterday's spreadsheet). As of yesterday, Obama was leading McCain in Hawaii by 41 points,
was tied in Montana and North Dakota, and leading in California by 27 points, and so on.
Finally we come to column 5, which is column 4 minus column 2, in other words, how much better the
Democrat is doing in 2008 compared to 2004. Ignoring Hawaii on account of one outlier in 2004, we see
Obama is doing 21 points better than Kerry was in Montana because yesterday's map showed Obama and McCain
tied whereas the Oct. 26, 2004 map showed Kerry 21 points behind Bush. Thus Obama is outperforming Kerry in
Montana by 21 points. He is outperforming Kerry in Indiana and Georgia by 16 points and 14 points, respectively.
On the other hand, he is underperforming Kerry in the lines colored red. For example, he is underperforming
Kerry in Arkansas by 11 points and in Alabama by 8 points. Nevertheless, he is doing better than Kerry was in
41 states plus D.C. and underperforming Kerry in 9 states, only one of which he is likely to win (New Hampshire).
In other words, an alternative way to look at the election is how well is Obama doing compared to Kerry and
the clear answer is: "a lot better." Also interesting is to see how many rows have different signs in columns
2 and 3. For example, the two entries for Wisconsin are -2.0 and 0.4 meaning the polls a week out showed
Kerry losing Wisconsin by 2 points but he ultimately won the state by 0.4 points. There are four states
where the signs don't agree: Hawaii, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Arkansas. As mentioned above, there was one
weird poll that completely messed up Hawaii in 2004 and the pollsters were saying Arkansas was too close to
call (when it wasn't at all). But in 46 states plus D.C. the candidate leading in the polls a week before
the election did, in fact, carry the state.
If you want to play with the numbers yourself, an expanded version of the table above is available in
Excel format
and in
.csv format.
Today's Polls
We have 31 presidential polls today.
Here are some of the highlights. A poll in Arizona makes it a statistical
tie, with McCain leading by a mere 2 points, 46% to 44% in his home state.
Colorado looks like a done deal for Obama, as two polls have him ahead
by 8 points and 9 points, respectively. Obama also leads in Florida by
about 2 points, but this lead has been consistent for a while now. Georgia
is surprisingly close, with McCain ahead by only 1 point. North Carolina is
still essentially tied. Nevada, in contrast, is looking more and more like
an Obama win as one poll today has him 4 points ahead and another has him 10 points ahead.
Likewise, Obama's lead in Ohio looks serious, with four polls today putting him
ahead, by margins of 4, 7, 9, and 9 points, respectively. As is well known, no
Republican in history has ever won the presidency without Ohio.
Finally, despite McCain's last-minute attempt to win Pennsylvania, six new polls
there show Obama with an insurmountable lead there, with leads of 7, 9, 12, 12, 12, and 13
points, respectively.
Arkansas |
44% |
54% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Arizona |
44% |
46% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 26 |
Arizona State U. |
Colorado |
50% |
41% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
Colorado |
53% |
45% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 26 |
Insider Advantage |
Florida |
45% |
43% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
Florida |
47% |
45% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
Quinnipiac U. |
Florida |
50% |
43% |
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Louisiana Times |
Georgia |
47% |
48% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Insider Advantage |
Indiana |
45% |
47% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 24 |
Howey-Gauge |
Indiana |
48% |
47% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 25 |
Research 2000 |
Louisiana |
38% |
51% |
Oct 20 |
Oct 23 |
Southeastern La. U. |
Mississippi |
45% |
53% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Montana |
44% |
48% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 25 |
Mason-Dixon |
North Carolina |
47% |
47% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 24 |
Mason-Dixon |
North Carolina |
48% |
46% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
New Hampshire |
50% |
39% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 25 |
Mason-Dixon |
New Hampshire |
58% |
33% |
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
U. of New Hampshire |
Nevada |
50% |
40% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 26 |
Suffolk U. |
Nevada |
50% |
46% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Nevada |
52% |
40% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
Ohio |
48% |
41% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
Ohio |
49% |
40% |
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Louisiana Times |
Ohio |
49% |
45% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
Ohio |
51% |
42% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
Quinnipiac U. |
Pennsylvania |
51% |
42% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 26 |
Insider Advantage |
Pennsylvania |
52% |
40% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
GfK Roper |
Pennsylvania |
53% |
40% |
Oct 21 |
Oct 26 |
Franklin+Marshall Coll. |
Pennsylvania |
53% |
41% |
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
Quinnipiac U. |
Pennsylvania |
53% |
41% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 27 |
Muhlenberg Coll. |
Pennsylvania |
53% |
46% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Washington |
56% |
39% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
We also have two Senate polls.
Mary Landrieu is cruising to an easy reelection over Democrat-turned-Republican John Kennedy
in Louisiana, 53% to 34%. Karl Rove was the one who convinced Kennedy to switch parties and
challenge Landrieu. The plan appears to have failed. In Mississippi-B, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)
has taken a strong lead over Ronnie Musgrove (D), 54% to 43%.
Louisiana |
Mary Landrieu* |
53% |
John Kennedy |
34% |
Oct 20 |
Oct 23 |
Southeastern La. U. |
Mississippi |
Ronnie Musgrove |
43% |
Roger Wicker* |
54% |
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
We also have four House polls, excluding a
new tracking poll in New Hampshire. We will count that one only when the data samples
are independent (e.g., after the Oct. 24-26 poll, the next one that will count is Oct. 27-29).
IN-03 |
Michael Montagano |
44% |
Mark Souder* |
42% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 24 |
Howey-Gauge |
KY-04 |
Michael Kelley |
37% |
Geoff Davis* |
58% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
MN-03 |
Ashwin Madia |
44% |
Erik Paulsen* |
45% |
Oct 26 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
OH-15 |
Mary Jo Kilroy |
47% |
Steve Stivers* |
41% |
Oct 25 |
Oct 26 |
SurveyUSA |
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