Nov. 01 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 353   McCain 185  
Senate Dem 58   GOP 42  
House Dem 251   GOP 183   Ties 1

 
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This day in 2004


strong Dem Strong Dem (264)
weak Dem Weak Dem (47)
barely Dem Barely Dem (42)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (53)
weak GOP Weak GOP (8)
strong GOP Strong GOP (124)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: AK AZ CO GA IN KY MN MO MS MT NC ND NH NJ OR PA WI WY RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IA NV NM NC OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA SMS


PW logo Simulation Shows Obama Will Win Obama Urged to Pick Cabinet Soon
Research 2000: Obama Just Ahead in North Carolina What to Expect on Tuesday
A Graphical Look at Past Elections Research 2000: Arizona is Very Tight

News from the Votemaster

State-by-State Overview of What to Expect Tuesday

Chuck Todd of MSNBC gives a rundown of what to expect in all 50 states. Some highlights:

- Arizona: If McCain loses, he will have a tough reelection fight in 2010 again Janet Napolitano
- Arkansas: The only state with a Democratic governor and two senators McCain will win
- Connecticut: Watch Chris Shays in CT-04 defend the only House GOP seat in New England
- Florida: Many key House races here (FL-08, FL-16, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25)
- Georgia: Chambliss-Martin Senate race is a cliffhanger and might need a runoff
- Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White House be in Honolulu? Reporters prefer it to Crawford
- Illinois: Will Obama's coattails be long enough to swing IL-10 and IL-11?
- Indiana: Could be close
- Maryland: Democrats might pick up another House seat making in 7 out of 8
- Michigan: McCain's decision to abandon the state may cause the GOP to lose MI-07 and MI-09
- Minnesota: The closest Senate race of the year is the Coleman-Franken-Barkley race here
- Mississippi: If black turnout surges, it might wash away Roger Wicker in the Senate race
- Missouri: The most Republican of the big swing states. If Obama wins this one it will be a landslide
- Montana: The demoralized GOP base might stay home and let Obama take these 3 EVs
- Nevada: The presidential race and two House seats are definitely in play here
- New Hampshire: The Democrats will probably win all the marbles here (again)
- New Mexico: The Democrats are likely to win presidential, Senate, and all three House races
- New York: Democrats might pick up four House seats and control of the state senate
- North Carolina: very close races for President, Senate, NC-08, and governor
- North Dakota: the psychological loss of North Dakota would be worse than the electoral loss
- Ohio: Obama and McCain are close; there are key House races in OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, and OH-16
- Oregon: Obama will crush McCain here and that might be enough to drag Jeff Merkley into the Senate
- Pennsylvania: probably not in play, but PA-11 and PA-12 might be close
- Virginia: Polls close at 7 P.M. EST here. If Obama wins, the show's over
- Wyoming: Believe it or not, the Democrats might win Cheney's old House seat

Republican Senate Candidates Abandon McCain

Republican candidates for the Senate in Oregon, Louisiana, North Carolina and elsewhere have de facto given up on John McCain and are urging voters to support them as a counterweight to President Obama. They say that one-party rule is bad for the country. Interestingly enough, in 2004, when Republican control of Congress was assured, few Republicans were advocating a vote for John Kerry in order to prevent the dreaded one-party rule. In 2000, 85% of the people voted for the same party for the Senate as for President, so in practice, people do not really split their tickets just to give each party some power. In fact, when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties, everyone bemoans "the gridlock in Washington." (2004 data weren't available).

North Carolina Senate Race Heats Up

In what appears to be a desperation move, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has been running an ad suggesting her opponent, state senator Kay Hagan (D) is an atheist. Hagan denies this but it brings to mind Colin Powell's remarks when he endorsed Barack Obama. He said that there are rumors that Obama is a Muslim and they are not true. Then he added: "What if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country?" Kay Hagan is not an atheist, but what if she were? Is there something wrong with being an atheist in this country? Seems like the same rules ought to apply.

Ronald Reagan's Son Endorses Obama

While endorsements generally don't swing a lot of votes, it is certainly embarrassing for Republicans who worship Ronald Reagan to have Reagan's son now formally endorse Barack Obama.

Obama Still Leading Nationally

Obama's national lead is currently at 6.3%, about the same as it has been all week. If he wins the popular vote by 6%, he will most likely carry nearly all the swing states. Here are today's numbers.

      - AP (Obama +8)
      - Battleground (Obama +4)
      - Diageo (Obama +7)
      - Gallup expanded (Obama +9)
      - IBD (Obama +4)
      - Marist (Obama +7)
      - Rasmussen (Obama +4)
      - Research 2000 (Obama +6)
      - Washington Post/ABC (Obama +9)
      - Zogby (Obama +5)

Today's Polls

We have 30 presidential polls today. Arizona is surprisingly close and Obama is running some ads there, but McCain should still win his home state in the end. Yet another poll (from ARG) shows Obama ahead in Colorado, 52% to 45%. With the Kerry states in the bag along with Iowa and New Mexico, a win in Colorado means that nothing else matters. Georgia is getting closer, but McCain will probably hold this one.. Missouri is a real tossup. If it goes for McCain and Obama wins, it loses its hallowed bellwether status. North Carolina is still too close to call. McCain made a real effort to win Pennsylvania, but it is not paying off. Obama's solid lead there is stable.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Alaska 39% 58% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Arizona 46% 50% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
Arizona 47% 48% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Colorado 52% 45% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
Georgia 44% 47% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Georgia 47% 52% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
Indiana 47% 47% Oct 27 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
Kentucky 39% 56% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Kentucky 42% 51% Oct 27 Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
Minnesota 53% 38% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Missouri 47% 50% Oct 29 Oct 29 Insider Advantage
Missouri 48% 48% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
Mississippi 40% 53% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Montana 44% 48% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Montana 46% 49% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
North Carolina 45% 38% Oct 27 Oct 30 Elon U.
North Carolina 47% 45% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
North Carolina 48% 48% Oct 29 Oct 29 Insider Advantage
North Dakota 46% 47% Oct 28 Oct 29 Research 2000
New Hampshire 50% 46% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
New Hampshire 51% 44% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
New Hampshire 53% 39% Oct 28 Oct 30 U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire 53% 42% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
New Hampshire 56% 41% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
New Jersey 52% 42% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
Oregon 55% 39% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Oregon 57% 38% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania 55% 43% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Wisconsin 54% 38% Oct 21 Oct 28 U. of Wisconsin
Wyoming 36% 61% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000

We also have 29 Senate polls, almost as many as for the presidency. It is increasingly looking like the real battle will be whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate. Truth be told, while 60 is better for them than 59, few cloture votes go strictly along party lines. In Alaska, convicted felon Ted Stevens' long career is finished. In Georgia, Sen Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) is hanging on, but if he comes in below 50%, there will be a runoff Dec. 4. Just imagine what will happen if the Democrats win 59 seats and the whole country is focused on this one Senate runoff in December. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has taken the lead again in the very tight Minnesota Senate race. Finally, Jeff Merkley (D) has taken a substantial lead over Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR).

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Alaska Mark Begich 58% Ted Stevens* 36% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Colorado Mark Udall 51% Bob Schaffer* 36% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Colorado Mark Udall 53% Bob Schaffer* 43% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Georgia Jim Martin 43% Saxby Chambliss* 48% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
Georgia Jim Martin 44% Saxby Chambliss* 53% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Georgia Jim Martin 46% Saxby Chambliss* 47% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
Iowa Tom Harkin* 57% Christopher Reed 37% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Kentucky Bruce Lunsford 42% Mitch McConnell* 47% Oct 27 Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Al Franken 36% Norm Coleman* 42% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Al Franken 40% Norm Coleman* 43% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Mississippi Ronnie Musgrove 44% Roger Wicker* 51% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
North Carolina Kay Hagan 44% Elizabeth Dole* 37% Oct 27 Oct 30 Elon U.
North Carolina Kay Hagan 45% Elizabeth Dole* 43% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
North Carolina Kay Hagan 50% Elizabeth Dole* 45% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
North Carolina Kay Hagan 52% Elizabeth Dole* 46% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
North Carolina Kay Hagan 53% Elizabeth Dole* 44% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 48% John Sununu* 41% Oct 28 Oct 30 U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 52% John Sununu* 44% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 53% John Sununu* 40% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 53% John Sununu* 41% Oct 28 Oct 30 ARG
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 48% Richard Zimmer 41% Oct 20 Oct 21 Marist Coll.
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 52% Richard Zimmer 32% Oct 23 Oct 29 Fairleigh Dickinson U.
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 52% Richard Zimmer 37% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 56% Richard Zimmer 39% Oct 26 Oct 28 Research 2000
Oregon Jeff Merkley 48% Gordon Smith* 42% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Oregon Jeff Merkley 49% Gordon Smith* 42% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
Oregon Jeff Merkley 49% Gordon Smith* 46% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
Virginia Mark Warner 63% Jim Gilmore* 35% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Wyoming Nick Carter 35% John Barrasso* 60% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000

We also have seven House polls. Stevens' problems are taking their toll on Rep. Don Young (R-AK). It looks like he will go down to defeat as well for the at-large seat in Alaska. In NH-01, Carol Shea-Porter is leading, even though she initially refused DCCC help (but took it later). In Wyoming, Cynthis Lummis seems to be pulling away in what appeared to be a close race but probably won't be.

Cong. Distr. Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
AK-AL Ethan Berkowitz 53% Don Young* 44% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
IN-09 Baron Hill* 53% Mike Sodrel 40% Oct 24 Oct 28 Research 2000
MT-AL John Driscoll 39% Denny Rehberg* 55% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research 2000
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter* 44% Jeb Bradley 41% Oct 27 Oct 29 U. of New Hampshire
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter* 44% Jeb Bradley 41% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
NH-02 Paul Hodes* 54% Jennifer Horn 26% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
WY-AL Gary Trauner 45% Cynthia Lummis* 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000

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