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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Mar. 20

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

Did you know that Roosevelt once said: "If there is simply a caving on this, we'll end up with primaries on Halloween"? Well it wasn't Teddy and it wasn't even FDR. It was the latter's grandson, James Roosevelt, Jr., who is now co-chair of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee. He is dead set against seating the Michigan and Florida delegations unless those states hold new elections, something Florida's Democratic Party has ruled out and something which seems increasingly unlikely in Michigan. His point is fairly simple: If we allow Florida and Michigan to violate the rules and get away with it, what's to stop some other state from holding its primary in October of 2011 next time? It's anyone's guess what will happen now. It is not too late to organize June caucuses in both states, but that has to happen very fast. The only other plausible alternative is to seat full delegations from both states but let Hillary Clinton pick half the members and Barack Obama the other half.

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), the only Latino governor in the country, has endorsed Barack Obama for President. As governor, he is also a PLEO and can vote at the DNC. This change of mind is particular hard on Hillary Clinton because Richardson has always been close to the Clintons (he was Sec'y of Energy and Ambassador to the United Nations in Bill's administration). Also Hillary Clinton has done done well in the primaries among Latino voters. Having the only Latino governor endorse her opponent has to be painful. Richardson can forget about being Clinton's Veep, but this move does open the way for a potential Obama/Richardson ticket. Richardson could bring a huge amount of experience in many areas, domestic and foreign to the ticket, as well as a swing state and much help in the Latino community. His main downside: He is a fluent, but boring, campaigner in two languages.

There are two Democratic Latino senators: Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ken Salazar (D-CO). Menendez has endorsed Clinton. Salazar has not endorsed anyone yet. No doubt Salazar's phone is going to be ringing off the hook today as both camps try to make it two out of three. If you are an endorsement fetishist, see Roll Call's list of endorsements. However, bear in mind that few voters make their decision based on endorsements.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) is sitting on a pot of over $30 million he can spend on House races. His counterpart at the NRCC (National Republican Campaign Committee), Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), has about $3 million. Van Hollen it not at all shy about announcing how he intends to spend the money. He has targeted 90 races he is going to pour money into. Some of these are districts with a Democratic freshman (freshperson?) who may need help hanging onto the seat won in 2006, but most of the target races are Republican seats he wants to capture. Here is the list of races that Van Hollen is aiming at. Some of these, like ID-01, seem very unlikely, but if he can pour money in and Cole can't, he could at least make life nasty for the incumbent, and who knows what might happen? In 2006, the Democrats won many highly Republican districts that nobody thought they had a chance to win. And in Presidential election years, a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can have coattails that help downticket.

District PVI Incumbent District PVI Incumbent
AK-AL R+14 Don Young AZ-05 R+4 Harry Mitchell
AL-02 R+13 Open (Everett) AZ-08 R+1 Gabrielle Giffords
AZ-01 R+2 Open (Renzi) CA-11 R+3 Jerry McNerney
AZ-03 R+6 John Shadegg CT-02 D+8 Joe Courtney
CA-04 R+11 Open (Doolittle) CT-05 D+4 Chris Murphy
CA-26 R+4 David Dreier FL-16 R+2 Tim Mahoney
CA-50 R+5 Brian Bilbray FL-22 D+4 Ron Klein
CO-04 R+9 Marilyn Musgrave GA-08 R+8 Jim Marshall
CT-04 D+5 Chris Shays GA-12 D+2 John Barrow
FL-08 R+3 Ric Keller IA-03 D+1 Leonard Boswell
FL-09 R+4 Gus Bilirakis IL-08 R+5 Melissa Bean
FL-13 R+4 Vern Buchanan IL-14 R+5 Bill Foster
FL-15 R+4 Open (Weldon) IN-02 R+4 Joe Donnelly
FL-18 R+4 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen IN-08 R+9 Brad Ellsworth
FL-21 R+6 Lincoln Diaz-Balart IN-09 R+7 Baron Hill
FL-24 R+3 Tom Feeney KS-02 R+7 Nancy Boyda
FL-25 R+4 Mario Diaz-Balart KY-03 D+2 John Yarmuth
IA-04 D+0 Tom Latham MN-01 R+1 Tim Walz
ID-01 R+19 Bill Sali NC-11 R+7 Heath Shuler
IL-06 R+3 Peter Roskam NH-01 R+0 Carol Shea-Porter
IL-10 D+4 Mark Kirk NH-02 D+3 Paul Hodes
IL-11 R+1 Open (Weller) NY-19 R+1 John Hall
KY-02 R+13 Open (Lewis) NY-20 R+3 Kirsten Gillibrand
LA-04 R+7 Open (McCrery) NY-24 R+1 Mike Arcuri
LA-06 R+7 Open (Baker) OH-18 R+6 Zack Space
MD-01 R+10 Open (Gilchrest) PA-04 R+3 Jason Altmire
MI-07 R+2 Tim Walberg PA-08 D+3 Patrick Murphy
MI-09 R+0 Joe Knollenberg PA-10 R+8 Chris Carney
MN-03 R+1 Open (Ramstad) TX-17 R+18 Chet Edwards
MN-06 R+5 Michele Bachmann TX-22 R+15 Nick Lampson
MO-06 R+5 Sam Graves TX-23 R+4 Ciro Rodriguez
MO-09 R+7 Open (Hulshof) WI-08 R+4 Steve Kagen
NC-08 R+3 Robin Hayes
NJ-03 D+3 Open (Saxton)
NJ-07 R+1 Open (Ferguson)
NM-01 D+2 Open (Wilson)
NM-02 R+6 Open (Pearce)
NV-02 R+8 Dean Heller
NV-03 D+1 Jon Porter
NY-03 D+2 Peter King
NY-13 D+1 Vito Fossella
NY-25 D+3 Open (Walsh)
NY-26 R+3 Thomas Reynolds
NY-29 R+5 Randy Kuhl
OH-01 R+1 Steve Chabot
OH-02 R+13 Jean Schmidt
OH-14 R+2 Steve LaTourette
OH-15 R+1 Open (Pryce)
OH-16 R+4 Open (Regula)
PA-03 R+2 Phil English
PA-06 D+2 Jim Gerlach
PA-18 R+2 Tim Murphy
VA-02 R+6 Thelma Drake
VA-10 R+5 Frank Wolf
VA-11 R+1 Open (Davis)
WA-08 D+2 Dave Reichert
WV-02 R+5 Shelley Moore-Capito
WY-AL R+19 Open (Cubin)

Here are today's new polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. Mar. 16 51% 35%      
West Virginia Rasmussen Mar. 13 55% 27%      

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1499 1619 +120   1334   278  
NY Times 1472 1620 +148 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1498 1617 +119 26 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1479 1621 +142 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1486 1614 +128 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1485 1615 +130 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1506 1625 +119 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster