Robert Samulenson wrote a really good
column
about why politicans love to talk about making tough choices but once in office never make them. The voters would
never stand for it. People want better health care but lower health care costs. They want independence from foreign oil
but lower gas prices. They want more government services but lower taxes. They want a solvent social security system
but without cutting benefits or raising social security taxes. The list goes on. So nothing happens.
On that score, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain has stuck his neck out on any of the really big problems coming
down the pike in the next couple of decades. It's easier to talk about whether Obama is patriotic enough or whether
McCain is too old. The old world of bipartisan consensus where both parties would agree, say, to raise the retirement age,
cut social security benefits, and raise the $102,000 cap on social security taxes is gone. Each party hides in the bushes
waiting for the other one to say something first and then jumps on it. This is why a recent Rasmussen poll showed that only 9% of
Americans think Congress is doing an excellent or good job.
Zogby released interactive polls for 32 states yesterday. These are polls taken by people who volunteered to take them
over the Internet. There is no random sampling involved, so their value is questionable. They are not useless, however,
since month-to-month changes may be significant. For what they are worth, here are the results. The mere fact that Barr
does so well is certainly a red herring since the Internet has far more libertarians than the population as a whole.
The rows are sorted on the last column, Obama minus McCain.
State
Obama
McCain
Nader
Barr
BHO-JSM
Massachusetts
54
29
3
5
25
Maryland
54
30
1
6
24
California
52
32
1
5
20
Illinois
52
32
1
5
20
Oregon
49
33
1
6
16
Minnesota
48
32
1
8
16
New Mexico
49
33
2
9
16
Connecticut
48
32
2
5
16
Michigan
47
33
2
6
14
New Jersey
49
36
2
3
13
Washington
48
35
2
5
13
Pennsylvania
46
36
2
5
10
Wisconsin
48
38
1
4
10
North Carolina
47
38
1
4
9
Virginia
44
39
1
4
5
Ohio
43
38
2
7
5
Iowa
42
38
1
8
4
Arizona
42
39
2
7
3
New Hampshire
40
37
2
10
3
Colorado
40
38
2
8
2
Missouri
42
40
1
6
2
Arkansas
41
39
1
4
2
South Carolina
42
41
1
6
1
Nevada
38
38
2
9
0
Indiana
39
40
0
7
-1
Florida
39
43
2
6
-4
Oklahoma
37
42
2
9
-5
Texas
36
41
1
7
-5
Kentucky
39
44
1
3
-5
Georgia
38
44
0
8
-6
Louisiana
40
47
1
4
-7
Alabama
36
47
0
4
-11
The AP had a
story
earlier this week that Pet owners prefer McCain to Obama.
Now
pollster.com
has looked at the crosstabs on that poll carefully and demolished the idea. It turns out pet owners
tend to be older married white people--and they favor McCain.
Minorities and voters under 30 have fewer pets--and they favor Obama.
In other words, the demographics of the petted and the petless are
different. If somebody ran a poll on who false teeth wearers prefer it would probably be McCain,
not due to his excellent plans for dental health insurance, but due to those people belonging
to a distinct demographic group (old people). When analyzing polling data you have to be very
careful not to confuse correlation with causation, a subject statisticians have been wrestling
with for 50 years.
For people who want to play "What if?"
experiments with the polling data, the "Downloadable polling data"
link to the right of the map has been updated. Click on that link
and then go to the bottom of the page and follow the instructions under
"Spreadsheet Beautification." Then you can get an Excel spreadsheet with
the current data and change poll numbers and watch the states flip,
colors change, and totals recalculated. You can then try out scenarios
like "What if McCain wins New Hampshire or Obama wins Missouri."
As an example of what it looks like, here is
today's spreadsheet.
We have two presidential polls today. In New Jersey, Obama is slipping a bit, but will
almost assuredly carry New Jersey in November. More important is Missouri, a key swing state.
It is a must-win state for McCain and he is ahead here by 5 points.
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Missouri
42%
47%
Jul 07
Jul 07
Rasmussen
New Jersey
44%
39%
Jun 07
Jul 07
Rasmussen
We also have two Senate polls. The poll in Maine shows Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) 25 points
ahead of Rep. Tom Allen (D). This pollster is unknown and the value of the poll is suspect, but
since there is no a priori reason to reject it, it counts. In New Jersey. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
will cruise to an easy victory.
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