Dec. 26 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 365   McCain 173  
Senate Dem 58   GOP 41   Ties 1
House Dem 257   GOP 178  

 
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strong Dem Strong Dem (265)
weak Dem Weak Dem (26)
barely Dem Barely Dem (74)
tied Exactly tied (0)
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weak GOP Weak GOP (39)
strong GOP Strong GOP (120)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
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Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IN IA NV NM NC OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA SMS


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News from the Votemaster

Lawsuit All but Assured in Minnesota

Top lawyers for Norm Coleman's campaign have said that a lawsuit is virtually certain in the Minnesota Senate election. Reading between the lines, this suggests that they have de facto conceded defeat in the actual vote counting. If you were expecting to get more votes than the other guy, why would you even talk about filing a suit? There has been nary a word about lawsuits from the Franken camp, just a prediction that Frank will win by 35-50 votes. Coleman will have an uphill struggle because the Minnesota supreme court has denied every motion he has brought before it so far. It is clear the court does not want to settle the election. It wants the canvassing board to do so and it seems unlikely it will overturn the canvassing board's decision unless Coleman can show the board violated state law. In any event, no suit will be filed until the 1600 absentee ballots in dispute have been counted and that won't happen until January 5. So Minnesota will start the new session of Congress with one senator. There should have been some provision in the constitution that when a senate seat is vacant, the other senator gets two votes so the state is not disadvantaged, but there isn't.

Final Presidential Results

Not a lot of political news on Christmas day, but here is some reworked old news. Below are the final results (taken from the Wikipedia's presidential election page). In a few cases, the rounding is slightly different from the earlier results posted here. The map software uses integers, so for each candidate, the percentage of the total vote was computed and rounded to the nearest integer, then the map drawn. This algorithm could give slightly different results in a few cases than doing all the computations to several decimal places. If you want to play with the data, they are available in Excel format and .csv format. For example, you could sort the states by Nader's percentage or whatever. These files are also on the Data galore page (on the menu) in case you want them in the future. Nebraska is colored purple below because although McCain got more votes in the state than Obama, Obama won one of the electoral votes (NE-02).

State Obama McCain Nader Barr Baldwin McKinney Others Total
Alabama 813,479 1,266,546 6,788 4,991 4,310 0 3,705 2,099,819
Alaska 123,594 193,841 3,783 1,589 1,660 0 1,730 326,197
Arizona 1,034,707 1,230,111 11,301 12,555 1,371 3,406 24 2,293,475
Arkansas 422,310 638,017 12,882 4,776 4,023 3,470 1,139 1,086,617
California 8,274,473 5,011,781 108,381 67,582 3,145 38,774 57,764 13,561,900
Colorado 1,288,576 1,073,589 13,350 10,897 6,233 2,822 5,894 2,401,361
Connecticut 997,772 629,428 19,162   311 90 29 1,646,792
Delaware 255,459 152,374 2,401 1,109 626 385 58 412,412
District of Columbia 245,800 17,367 958     590 1,138 265,853
Florida 4,282,074 4,045,624 28,124 17,218 7,915 2,887 6,902 8,390,744
Georgia 1,844,137 2,048,744 1,123 28,812 1,305 249 62 3,924,432
Hawaii 325,871 120,566 3,825 1,314 1,013 979   453,568
Idaho 236,440 403,012 7,175 4,747 3,658     655,032
Illinois 3,419,673 2,031,527 30,952 19,645 8,256 11,838 1,160 5,523,051
Indiana 1,374,039 1,345,648 909 29,257 1024 87 90 2,751,054
Iowa 828,940 682,379 8,014 4,590 4,445 1,423 7,332 1,537,123
Kansas 514,765 699,655 10,527 6,706 4,148 35 36 1,235,872
Kentucky 751,985 1,048,462 15,378 5,989 4,694     1,826,508
Louisiana 782,989 1,148,275 6,997   2,581 9,187 10,732 1,960,761
Maine 421,923 295,273 10,636     2,900 431 731,163
Maryland 1,629,467 959,862 14,713 9,842 3,760 4,747 9,205 2,631,596
Massachusetts 1,904,097 1,108,854 28,841 13,189 4,971 6,550 14,483 3,080,985
Michigan 2,872,579 2,048,639 33,085 23,716 14,685 8,892 170 5,001,766
Minnesota 1,573,354 1,275,409 30,152 9,174 6,787 5,174 10,319 2,910,369
Mississippi 554,662 724,597 4,011 2,529 2,551 1,034 481 1,289,865
Missouri 1,441,911 1,445,814 17,813 11,386 8,201 80   2,925,205
Montana 231,667 242,763 3,686 1,355     10,638 490,109
Nebraska 333,319 452,979 5,406 2,740 2,972 1,028 2,837 801,281
Nevada 533,736 412,827 6,150 4,263 3,194 1,411 6,267 967,848
New Hampshire 384,826 316,534 3,503 2,217 226 40 3,624 710,970
New Jersey 2,215,422 1,613,207 21,298 8,441 3,956 3,636 2,277 3,868,237
New Mexico 472,422 346,832 5,327 2,428 1,597 1,552   830,158
New York 4,769,700 2,742,298 41,086 19,513 614 12,729 8,873 7,594,813
North Carolina 2,142,651 2,128,474   25,722     13,942 4,310,789
North Dakota 141,278 168,601 4,189 1,354 1,199     316,621
Ohio 2,933,388 2,674,491 42,288 19,888 12,550 8,513 7,142 5,698,260
Oklahoma 502,496 960,165           1,462,661
Oregon 1,037,291 738,475 18,614 7,635 7,693 4,543 13,613 1,827,864
Pennsylvania 3,276,363 2,655,885 42,977 19,912       5,995,137
Rhode Island 296,571 165,391 4,829 1,382 675 797 122 469,767
South Carolina 862,449 1,034,896 5,053 7,283 6,827 4,461   1,920,969
South Dakota 170,924 203,054 4,267 1,835 1,895     381,975
Tennessee 1,087,437 1,479,178 11,560 8,547 8,191 2,499 2,337 2,599,749
Texas 3,528,633 4,479,328 5,214 56,116 5,052 671 2,781 8,077,795
Utah 327,670 596,030 8,416 6,966 12,012 982 294 952,370
Vermont 219,262 98,974 3,339 1,067 500   1,904 325,046
Virginia 1,959,532 1,725,005 11,483 11,067 7,474 2,344 6,355 3,723,260
Washington 1,750,848 1,229,216 29,489 12,728 9,432 3,819 1,346 3,036,878
West Virginia 303,857 397,466 7,219   2,465 2,355 89 713,451
Wisconsin 1,677,211 1,262,393 17,605 8,858 5,072 4,216 8,062 2,983,417
Wyoming 82,868 164,958 2,525 1,594 1,192   1,521 254,658
U.S. Total 69,456,897 59,934,814 736,804 524,524 196,461 161,195 226,908 131,237,603

Qualifications to be Senator from New York

A lot has been written about Caroline Kennedy's (lack of) qualifications to be a senator. However, Bob Beneson asks since when has prior experience in elected office been a requirement for this seat? The previous five occupants of the seat were Bobby Kennedy (1965-1968), Charles Goodell (1968-1971), James Buckley (1971-1977), Daniel Moynihan (1977-2001), and Hillary Clinton (2001-2009). Of these, the only one who had been elected to public office before entering the Senate is Charles Goodell, and Goodell wasn't elected to the seat, he was appointed to it after the assassination of Bobby Kennedy. There are certainly valid arguments against Caroline Kennedy, but her lack of experience in elected office isn't one of them given that 4 of the previous 5 occupants of the seat didn't have any and the one who did is not likely to show up on many lists of the greatest senators of all time.

Blog on Pardoning

On the Internet, there is no such thing as a subject too specialized to blog on. Rick Hasen, a professor of law at Loyola University, has been running a respected blog on election law since 2003. It covers all facets of election law, for example, yesterday he talked about a voting machine company that has been trying to intimidate a Princeton professor who is an expert witness in a case about the voting machines. The site was getting about 12,000 visits a month early this year, but traffic has spiked the past few months. But there are even narrower blogs out there. An Illinois political science professor, P.S. Ruckman, Jr., has a blog on the pardon power. The feature article yesterday was entitled "Can a President Revoke a Pardon He Has Granted?" (If this doesn't ring a bell, check out yesterday's posting here.) Ruckman's traffic has quintupled in the past four days. His 15 minutes of fame has arrived.

Viagra as a Weapon against Terrorism

OK, this is not directly political news, but it is a slow news day and the story was too good to pass up. The CIA is using Viagra as a weapon for fighting terrorism in Afghanistan. The CIA has operatives in Afghanistan who are trying to sign up elderly local chieftains to rat on local terrorists. The traditional ways to encourage cooperation are to give the chieftains guns or cash. The problem is that the guns often fall into the wrong hands and cash quickly gets spent on fancy toys that signal to everyone in the area that the chieftain has a rich new friend (which they realize is the CIA), making the chieftain now useless as an information source. The little blue pills don't leave any tell-tale signs behind and the chieftain often wants more--which he can get in trade for information the CIA wants. It is a win-win proposition.


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