Aug. 13 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 289   McCain 249  
Senate Dem 56   GOP 44  
House Dem 241   GOP 194  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report
This day in 2004

strong Dem Strong Dem (165)
weak Dem Weak Dem (95)
barely Dem Barely Dem (29)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (84)
weak GOP Weak GOP (68)
strong GOP Strong GOP (97)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: FL KY NC RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA NV NM GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Pew Research: Presidential Race Draws Even An Almanac of Republican Scandals
Warner Would Not Submit to Vetting Strategic Vision: Obama Leads in Wisconsin
IA Poll: McCain Slightly Ahead in Florida Franklin & Marshall Poll: Obama Leads in Pennsylvania

News from the Votemaster

Spreadsheet with Historical Data Available

We now have a spreadsheet with the results of the presidential elections from 1900 to 2004 so you can now easily answer questions like: "When was the last time Virginia voted Democratic or the last time the Republicans won Minnesota?" Here it is in Excel format and .csv format. Thanks to the people who helped, including Kasper Kristoffersen, Emmett McGowan, Steve Morris, and especially Dave Nichols, who did the final editing. The spreadsheets are listed on the Data galore page in case you need them later.

Colorado Primary Results

Colorado had a primary election yesterday with several House seats being competitive. In CO-05 (Colorado Springs), freshman representative Doug Lamborn (R) was renominated in a bitter contest. The district is R+16, so he is safe in November. In CO-02 (Boulder), wealthy businessman Jared Polis bought the nomination in this D+8 district. This is the district Mark Udall is vacating to run for the Senate. He is heavily favored to win in November. Finally, in CO-06 (south of Denver), Colorado's Secretary of State, Mike Coffman (R), won the primary to succeed Tom Tancredo in Congress. The district is R+10, so Coffman is a shoo-in.

Gubernatorial races

Eleven governorships are on the agenda for this November. Here is a rundown of who's who in governorland. Larry Sabato has more.

State Incumbent Dem nominee GOP nominee Notes
Delaware Ruth Minner (D) Primary Sept. 9 Primary Sept. 9 Democrats usually win here
Indiana Mitch Daniels (R) Jill Thompson Mitch Daniels Probably Daniels
Missouri Matt Blunt (R) Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof Nixon leading
Montana Brian Schweitzer (D) Brian Schweitzer Roy Brown Schweitzer landslide
New Hampshire John Lynch (D) John Lynch Joe Kenney Lynch landslide
Noth Carolina Mike Easley (D) Beverly Perdue Pat McCrory Probably Perdue
North Dakota John Hoeven (R) Tim Mathern John Hoeven Hoeven landslide
Utah Jon Huntsman (R) Bob Springmeyer John Huntsman Huntsman landslide
Vermont Jim Douglas (R) Gaye Symington Jim Douglas Probably Douglas
Washington Christine Gregoire (D) Christine Gregorie Dino Rossi Repeat of 2004; tossup
West Virginia Joe Manchin (D) Joe Manchin Russ Weeks Manchin landslide

These races have implications for the national scene since in most cases the governor elected this year will be around when redistricting comes up after the 2010 census. A Democratic governor won't let a Republican controlled legislature gerrymander the congressional districts in their favor and vice versa. currently Democrats control 6 of the 11. Missouri is likely to flip but Washington will be a real nailbiter, just like 2004. If Gregoire hangs on, the Democrats will have seven of the 11; if Rossi makes it on his second try, Washington will cancel Missouri and it will stay 6-5 for the Democrats.

"Reactions" to the Russian Invasion of Georgia

Kathleen Parker has imagined what George Bush, Barack Obama, and John McCain might have written to Vladimir Putin concerning the Russian invasion of Georgia (the country). Check out their "letters". They are funny, but have a kernel of truth in them.

Today's Polls

A new Florida poll has John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 48% to 44%. While this is closer than the previous poll (which had McCain up by 6 points) it is very clear that Florida is going to be a tough nut for Obama to crack. The demographics of Florida work better for McCain. In another poll, North Carolina is surprisingly close. McCain is ahead there, but 49% to 45%, which is a statistical tie. The last time North Carolina went for a Democrat was in 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter was the nominee. It could be that the large black population of the state may make this closer than normal.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Florida 44% 48% Aug 11 Aug 11 Insider Advantage
Kentucky 37% 55% Aug 09 Aug 11 SurveyUSA
North Carolina 45% 49% Aug 09 Aug 11 SurveyUSA

There is one other presidential poll worth mentioning: Alaska. Hays (D) has a poll showing Obama ahead of McCain there 45% to 40%. Now Hays is a Democratic shop so they shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) is under indictment, Rep. Don Young (R-AK) is under FBI investigation for corruption, and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) is being investigated by a legislature-appointed special prosecutor for abuse of power for trying to get her state trooper brother-in-law fired in the aftermath of his divorce from her sister. All in all the Repubican brand is a bit tarnished up there and Obama's call for change may well resonate with Alaska's normally Republican voters. But wait for a nonpartisan poll before jumping to any conclusions.

In the Senate, North Carolina bears watching. While Sen. Liddy Dole (R-NC) is definitely ahead, DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer has this race in his gunsight and is going to be pouring money in to help Kay Hagan (D). If there is a very large black turnout for Obama, Hagan will get a boost and the race might become closer.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Kentucky Bruce Lunsford 40% Mitch McConnell* 52% Aug 09 Aug 11 SurveyUSA
North Carolina Kay Hagan 41% Elizabeth Dole* 46% Aug 09 Aug 11 SurveyUSA
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 48% Richard Zimmer 41% Aug 04 Aug 10 Quinnipiac U.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster