Spreadsheet with Historical Data Available
We now have a spreadsheet with the results of the presidential elections
from 1900 to 2004 so you can now easily answer questions like: "When was the last
time Virginia voted Democratic or the last time the Republicans won Minnesota?"
Here it is in
Excel format and
Thanks to the people who helped, including Kasper Kristoffersen, Emmett McGowan,
Steve Morris, and especially Dave Nichols, who did the final editing. The spreadsheets are listed
on the Data galore page in case you need them later.
Colorado Primary Results
Colorado had a
yesterday with several House seats being competitive.
In CO-05 (Colorado Springs), freshman representative Doug Lamborn (R) was renominated in a bitter contest.
The district is R+16, so he is safe in November.
In CO-02 (Boulder), wealthy businessman Jared Polis bought the nomination in this D+8 district.
This is the district Mark Udall is vacating to run for the Senate.
He is heavily favored to win in November. Finally, in CO-06 (south of Denver),
Colorado's Secretary of State, Mike Coffman (R),
won the primary to succeed Tom Tancredo in Congress. The district is R+10, so Coffman is a shoo-in.
Eleven governorships are on the agenda for this November. Here is a rundown of
who's who in governorland. Larry Sabato has
|| Ruth Minner (D)
|| Primary Sept. 9
|| Primary Sept. 9
|| Democrats usually win here
|| Mitch Daniels (R)
|| Jill Thompson
|| Mitch Daniels
|| Probably Daniels
|| Matt Blunt (R)
|| Jay Nixon
|| Kenny Hulshof
|| Nixon leading
|| Brian Schweitzer (D)
|| Brian Schweitzer
|| Roy Brown
|| Schweitzer landslide
| New Hampshire
|| John Lynch (D)
|| John Lynch
|| Joe Kenney
|| Lynch landslide
| Noth Carolina
|| Mike Easley (D)
|| Beverly Perdue
|| Pat McCrory
|| Probably Perdue
| North Dakota
|| John Hoeven (R)
|| Tim Mathern
|| John Hoeven
|| Hoeven landslide
|| Jon Huntsman (R)
|| Bob Springmeyer
|| John Huntsman
|| Huntsman landslide
|| Jim Douglas (R)
|| Gaye Symington
|| Jim Douglas
|| Probably Douglas
|| Christine Gregoire (D)
|| Christine Gregorie
|| Dino Rossi
|| Repeat of 2004; tossup
| West Virginia
|| Joe Manchin (D)
|| Joe Manchin
|| Russ Weeks
|| Manchin landslide
These races have implications for the national scene since in most cases the
governor elected this year will be around when redistricting comes up after the
2010 census. A Democratic governor won't let a Republican controlled legislature
gerrymander the congressional districts in their favor and vice versa.
currently Democrats control 6 of the 11. Missouri is likely to flip but Washington
will be a real nailbiter, just like 2004. If Gregoire hangs on, the Democrats
will have seven of the 11; if Rossi makes it on his second try, Washington
will cancel Missouri and it will stay 6-5 for the Democrats.
"Reactions" to the Russian Invasion of Georgia
Kathleen Parker has imagined what George Bush, Barack Obama, and John McCain might have written to
Vladimir Putin concerning the Russian invasion of Georgia (the country).
Check out their
They are funny, but have a kernel of truth in them.
A new Florida poll has John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 48% to 44%. While this is closer than the
previous poll (which had McCain up by 6 points) it is very clear that Florida is going to be a tough nut
for Obama to crack. The demographics of Florida work better for McCain. In another poll, North Carolina is
surprisingly close. McCain is ahead there, but 49% to 45%, which is a statistical tie. The last time
North Carolina went for a Democrat was in 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter was the nominee. It could be
that the large black population of the state may make this closer than normal.
There is one other presidential poll worth mentioning: Alaska. Hays (D) has a poll showing Obama
ahead of McCain there 45% to 40%. Now Hays is a Democratic shop so they shouldn't be taken too
seriously. However, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) is under indictment, Rep. Don Young (R-AK) is under FBI
investigation for corruption, and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) is being investigated by a legislature-appointed
special prosecutor for abuse of power for trying to get her state trooper brother-in-law fired in the
aftermath of his divorce from her sister. All in all the Repubican brand is a bit tarnished up there
and Obama's call for change may well resonate with Alaska's normally Republican voters. But
wait for a nonpartisan poll before jumping to any conclusions.
In the Senate, North Carolina bears watching. While Sen. Liddy Dole (R-NC) is definitely ahead,
DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer has this race in his gunsight and is going to be pouring money in to help
Kay Hagan (D). If there is a very large black turnout for Obama, Hagan will get a boost and the race
might become closer.
|| Bruce Lunsford
|| Mitch McConnell*
|| Aug 09
|| Aug 11
| North Carolina
|| Kay Hagan
|| Elizabeth Dole*
|| Aug 09
|| Aug 11
| New Jersey
|| Frank Lautenberg*
|| Richard Zimmer
|| Aug 04
|| Aug 10
|| Quinnipiac U.
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-- The Votemaster