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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Apr. 20

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

John McCain has released his 2007 tax return. His adjusted gross income was $405,409. He paid $17,700 alimony to his first wife, and gave $105,467 to charity. He earned $112 in interest and dividends, which either means he is close to broke (unlikely), has investments that don't pay interest or dividends, or has everything in his wife's name. McCain and his wife file separate returns. Cindy McCain is estimated to be worth at least $100 million, money she inherited from her father, an Arizona beer distributor. She has refused to make her tax returns public.

Michigan Democrats met yesterday to choose their delegates to the DNC. Only problem is nobody knows yet whether they will be seated. The smart money is betting that the Democrats will ultimately seat some people from both Michigan and Florida. For Florida, where both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were on the ballot, options vary from seating the elected delegates, seating them but each with half a vote, seating them as observers, or seating a delegation evenly split between Clinton and Obama supporters. Michigan is trickier because Obama wasn't on the ballot. It is hard to see him accepting an election where he wasn't even on the ballot. On June 10, the mess will be dumped in the lap of the DNC credentials committee. The committee has 161 members chosen by the states and 25 members appointed by DNC chairman Howard Dean. Here is Politico's rundown of the members Dean appointed.

Name Job Supports
Dean Aguillen Lobbyist Clinton
Don Beyer Former VA Lt. Gov. Obama
Allyn Brooks-LaSure Dir. Media relations for Save Darfur Coalition Obama?
Jose Ceballos "Dir. Gov't affairs, Air Traffic Controllers Assoc. ?
Ralph Dawson Labor lawyer Obama?
Sheila Dixon Mayor of Baltimore Obama
"Christopher Edley, Jr Dean of the law school at UC Berkeley Obama
Hartina Flournoy Ass't to Pres. of Amer. Fed. of Teachers Clinton
Maryscott Greenwood Managing dir. of law firm Clinton?
Janice Griffin DNC activist Obama?
Adelita Grijalva Program manager of Pima County Teen Court Obama
Laura Harris Exec. Dir. Americans for Indian Opportunity Obama
Kathy Hoyt Political activist Obama
Carol Juneau Montana state senator Clinton
Scott Maddox Former Tallahassee mayor Neutral
Abdul Mujahid Founder of Sound Vision ?
Maria Neira VP of Amer. Fed. of Teachers Clinton
Kate O'Connor Longtime Dean aide ?
Leila Sahar College student ?
Marc Stanley Texas lawyer Obama
Carol Pensky DNC activist Clinton
Bob Rogan Chief of Staff for Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) Obama?
Jane Stetson Rep. Peter Welch's finance chair Obama
Michael Steed Managing dir. Paladin Capital Group Clinton
Bill Strauss Massachusetts state representative Clinton

In many cases the candidate supported is a guess based on whose campaign the member has contributed to. It should be noted however, that many DNC members strongly support the idea of punishing Michigan and Florida for breaking the DNC rules, independent of which candidate they support. For Obama supporters, this could mean advocating voiding the two states' elections and seating half for each candidate (message: if you violate the rules, we'll ignore the results). For Clinton supporters this could mean seating the delegations and giving each delegate half a vote (message: we respect your election, but you did violate the rules so you can't get off scot free). But if the nomination has been settled by June 10, they could yet seat the full delegations.

Here is another Pennsylvania poll.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Pennsylvania Zogby Apr. 18 47% 42%

In a new general election poll from Rasmussen, Obama has pulled ahead of McCain in Colorado, 46% to 43% while McCain beats Clinton 50% to 36% there. If Obama is the nominee and we get the Obama-McCain map linked to above and McCain wins North Carolina (likely), then the electoral college will be split 269 to 269 and the new House will pick the President, with each state getting one vote. Democrats are likely to control at least 26 state delegations, but no doubt McCain will argue that representatives from states that he carried should vote for him. Some representatives might vote the way their district went rather than how their state went. But in the end, this would be the ultimate test of party loyalty. Any Democratic representative who voted for McCain would surely be stripped on staff, choice committee assignments, and power.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards
Washington Post 1504 1645 +141  
NY Times 1475 1636 +161 12
AP 1504 1645 +141 18
CNN 1498 1644 +146 26
ABC 1502 1644 +142 32
CBS 1498 1638 +140 26
MSNBC 1508 1652 +144 26

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com