Oct. 06
Obama 329
McCain 194
Ties 15
Senate:
Dem 58
GOP 42
House:
Dem 241
GOP 193
Ties 1
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 36%
John McCain: 57%
Source: Research 2000 (Sep 24)
2004: Kerry 29%
Bush 69%
2000: Gore 28%
Bush 69%
1996: Clinton 37%
Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 34%
Bush 40%
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Research +ARG+Quinnipia (Sep 23)
2004:
Kerry 50%
Bush 49%
2000:
Gore 49%
Bush 48%
1996:
Clinton 49%
Dole 39%
1992:
Clinton 41%
Bush 37%
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 50%
Source: Rasmussen+Opinion R (Sep 24)
2004: Kerry 43%
Bush 56%
2000: Gore 46%
Bush 52%
1996:
Clinton 52%
Dole 37%
1992:
Clinton 48%
Bush 35%
Washington (11 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Rasmussen (Oct 02)
2004:
Kerry 53%
Bush 46%
2000:
Gore 50%
Bush 45%
1996:
Clinton 50%
Dole 37%
1992:
Clinton 43%
Bush 32%
Virginia (13 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46%
Source: Six polls (Oct 01)
2004: Kerry 45%
Bush 54%
2000: Gore 45%
Bush 53%
1996: Clinton 45%
Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 41%
Bush 45%
Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 56%
John McCain: 38%
Source: ARG (Sep 22)
2004:
Kerry 59%
Bush 39%
2000:
Gore 51%
Bush 41%
1996:
Clinton 53%
Dole 31%
1992:
Clinton 46%
Bush 30%
Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 28%
John McCain: 64%
Source: ARG+Rasmussen+Dan Jones (Sep 13)
2004: Kerry 26%
Bush 71%
2000: Gore 27%
Bush 67%
1996: Clinton 33%
Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 25%
Bush 43%
Texas (34 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 29)
2004: Kerry 38%
Bush 61%
2000: Gore 38%
Bush 59%
1996: Clinton 44%
Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 37%
Bush 41%
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 39%
John McCain: 57%
Source: Rasmussen+Mason (Sep 29)
2004: Kerry 43%
Bush 57%
2000: Gore 47%
Bush 51%
1996:
Clinton 48%
Dole 46%
1992:
Clinton 47%
Bush 42%
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 39%
John McCain: 55%
Source: ARG (Sep 21)
2004: Kerry 38%
Bush 60%
2000: Gore 38%
Bush 60%
1996: Clinton 43%
Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 37%
Bush 41%
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 41%
John McCain: 54%
Source: Research +SurveyUSA+Rasmussen (Sep 24)
2004: Kerry 41%
Bush 58%
2000: Gore 41%
Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 44%
Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 43%
Bush 47%
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 26%
Source: Opinion Factor (Oct 01)
2004:
Kerry 60%
Bush 39%
2000:
Gore 61%
Bush 32%
1996:
Clinton 60%
Dole 27%
1992:
Clinton 47%
Bush 29%
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 41%
Source: Five polls (Oct 04)
2004:
Kerry 51%
Bush 49%
2000:
Gore 51%
Bush 46%
1996:
Clinton 49%
Dole 40%
1992:
Clinton 45%
Bush 36%
Oregon (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 40%
Source: Research +SurveyUSA+ARG (Sep 24)
2004:
Kerry 52%
Bush 48%
2000:
Gore 47%
Bush 46%
1996:
Clinton 47%
Dole 39%
1992:
Clinton 43%
Bush 33%
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 34%
John McCain: 64%
Source: SurveyUSA (Sep 29)
2004: Kerry 34%
Bush 66%
2000: Gore 38%
Bush 60%
1996: Clinton 40%
Dole 48%
1992: Clinton 34%
Bush 43%
Ohio (20 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 46%
Source: Six polls (Sep 29)
2004: Kerry 49%
Bush 51%
2000: Gore 46%
Bush 50%
1996:
Clinton 47%
Dole 41%
1992:
Clinton 40%
Bush 38%
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 42%
John McCain: 53%
Source: Research +ARG (Sep 17)
2004: Kerry 36%
Bush 63%
2000: Gore 33%
Bush 61%
1996: Clinton 40%
Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 32%
Bush 44%
North Carolina (15 EVs)
Tied
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Rasmussen+ARG (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 44%
Bush 56%
2000: Gore 43%
Bush 56%
1996: Clinton 44%
Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 42%
Bush 43%
New York (31 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 58%
John McCain: 37%
Source: Siena Col+SurveyUSA (Sep 30)
2004:
Kerry 58%
Bush 41%
2000:
Gore 60%
Bush 35%
1996:
Clinton 58%
Dole 30%
1992:
Clinton 47%
Bush 29%
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Rasmussen+Research +SurveyUSA (Oct 01)
2004: Kerry 49%
Bush 50%
2000:
Gore 48%
Bush 47%
1996:
Clinton 49%
Dole 42%
1992:
Clinton 46%
Bush 37%
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 42%
Source: SurveyUSA (Sep 28)
2004:
Kerry 53%
Bush 47%
2000:
Gore 56%
Bush 40%
1996:
Clinton 54%
Dole 36%
1992:
Clinton 43%
Bush 41%
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 40%
Source: Rasmussen+Saint Ans (Oct 01)
2004:
Kerry 50%
Bush 49%
2000: Gore 47%
Bush 48%
1996:
Clinton 50%
Dole 40%
1992:
Clinton 39%
Bush 38%
Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Four polls (Oct 02)
2004: Kerry 48%
Bush 51%
2000: Gore 46%
Bush 50%
1996:
Clinton 44%
Dole 43%
1992:
Clinton 37%
Bush 35%
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 37%
John McCain: 56%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 32%
Bush 67%
2000: Gore 33%
Bush 62%
1996: Clinton 35%
Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 29%
Bush 47%
Montana (3 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Rasmussen (Oct 01)
2004: Kerry 39%
Bush 59%
2000: Gore 33%
Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 41%
Dole 44%
1992:
Clinton 38%
Bush 35%
Missouri (11 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Opinion R+SurveyUSA+Research (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 46%
Bush 53%
2000: Gore 47%
Bush 50%
1996:
Clinton 48%
Dole 41%
1992:
Clinton 44%
Bush 34%
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 40%
Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41%
Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 44%
Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 41%
Bush 50%
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 42%
Source: Princeton+SurveyUSA+Opinion R (Oct 02)
2004:
Kerry 51%
Bush 48%
2000:
Gore 48%
Bush 46%
1996:
Clinton 51%
Dole 35%
1992:
Clinton 44%
Bush 32%
Michigan (17 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Ten polls (Sep 24)
2004:
Kerry 51%
Bush 48%
2000:
Gore 51%
Bush 46%
1996:
Clinton 52%
Dole 39%
1992:
Clinton 44%
Bush 36%
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 56%
John McCain: 39%
Source: Rasmussen+SurveyUSA+ARG (Sep 23)
2004:
Kerry 62%
Bush 37%
2000:
Gore 60%
Bush 33%
1996:
Clinton 62%
Dole 28%
1992:
Clinton 48%
Bush 29%
Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 57%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Rasmussen+ARG (Sep 20)
2004:
Kerry 56%
Bush 43%
2000:
Gore 57%
Bush 40%
1996:
Clinton 54%
Dole 38%
1992:
Clinton 50%
Bush 36%
Maine (4 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 46%
Source: Rasmussen (Oct 02)
2004:
Kerry 53%
Bush 45%
2000:
Gore 49%
Bush 44%
1996:
Clinton 52%
Dole 31%
1992:
Clinton 39%
Bush 30%
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 40%
John McCain: 55%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 25)
2004: Kerry 42%
Bush 57%
2000: Gore 45%
Bush 53%
1996:
Clinton 52%
Dole 40%
1992:
Clinton 46%
Bush 41%
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 42%
John McCain: 53%
Source: Rasmussen+Mason (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 40%
Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41%
Bush 56%
1996:
Clinton 46%
Dole 45%
1992:
Clinton 45%
Bush 41%
Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 40%
John McCain: 56%
Source: SurveyUSA+Rasmussen (Sep 22)
2004: Kerry 37%
Bush 62%
2000: Gore 37%
Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 36%
Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 34%
Bush 39%
Iowa (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 41%
Source: Research +Rasmussen (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 49%
Bush 50%
2000:
Gore 49%
Bush 48%
1996:
Clinton 50%
Dole 40%
1992:
Clinton 43%
Bush 37%
Indiana (11 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 45%
John McCain: 47%
Source: Research +SurveyUSA (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 39%
Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41%
Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 42%
Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 37%
Bush 43%
Illinois (21 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 40%
Source: Four polls (Sep 17)
2004:
Kerry 55%
Bush 45%
2000:
Gore 55%
Bush 43%
1996:
Clinton 54%
Dole 37%
1992:
Clinton 49%
Bush 34%
Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 33%
John McCain: 62%
Source: Research 2000 (Sep 17)
2004: Kerry 30%
Bush 69%
2000: Gore 28%
Bush 67%
1996: Clinton 34%
Dole 52%
1992: Clinton 28%
Bush 42%
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 68%
John McCain: 27%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 20)
2004:
Kerry 54%
Bush 45%
2000:
Gore 56%
Bush 38%
1996:
Clinton 57%
Dole 32%
1992:
Clinton 48%
Bush 37%
Georgia (15 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 51%
Source: Insider A+SurveyUSA (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 41%
Bush 58%
2000: Gore 43%
Bush 55%
1996: Clinton 46%
Dole 47%
1992:
Clinton 44%
Bush 43%
Florida (27 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 46%
Source: Eight polls (Sep 30)
2004: Kerry 47%
Bush 52%
2000: Gore 48%
Bush 49%
1996:
Clinton 48%
Dole 42%
1992: Clinton 39%
Bush 41%
Delaware (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 57%
John McCain: 37%
Source: SurveyUSA+Fairleigh (Sep 23)
2004:
Kerry 53%
Bush 46%
2000:
Gore 55%
Bush 42%
1996:
Clinton 52%
Dole 37%
1992:
Clinton 44%
Bush 35%
D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 82%
John McCain: 13%
Source: ARG (Sep 13)
2004:
Kerry 90%
Bush 9%
2000:
Gore 86%
Bush 9%
1996:
Clinton 85%
Dole 9%
1992:
Clinton 85%
Bush 9%
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 37%
Source: SurveyUSA+Pulsar Re+ARG (Sep 25)
2004:
Kerry 54%
Bush 44%
2000:
Gore 56%
Bush 38%
1996:
Clinton 53%
Dole 35%
1992:
Clinton 42%
Bush 36%
Colorado (9 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 47%
Source: Mason+Rasmussen+ARG (Oct 01)
2004: Kerry 47%
Bush 52%
2000: Gore 42%
Bush 51%
1996: Clinton 44%
Dole 46%
1992:
Clinton 40%
Bush 36%
California (55 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 54%
John McCain: 40%
Source: SurveyUSA+Rasmussen+ARG (Sep 24)
2004:
Kerry 55%
Bush 44%
2000:
Gore 53%
Bush 42%
1996:
Clinton 51%
Dole 38%
1992:
Clinton 46%
Bush 33%
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 42%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Rasmussen+ARG (Sep 22)
2004: Kerry 45%
Bush 54%
2000: Gore 46%
Bush 51%
1996:
Clinton 54%
Dole 37%
1992:
Clinton 53%
Bush 36%
Arizona (10 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 38%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Rasmussen+Arizona S (Sep 29)
2004: Kerry 45%
Bush 55%
2000: Gore 45%
Bush 51%
1996:
Clinton 47%
Dole 44%
1992: Clinton 37%
Bush 39%
Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 38%
John McCain: 55%
Source: Fairleigh+Research (Sep 21)
2004: Kerry 35%
Bush 62%
2000: Gore 28%
Bush 59%
1996: Clinton 33%
Dole 51%
1992: Clinton 30%
Bush 40%
Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 37%
John McCain: 62%
Source: Rasmussen+SurveyUSA (Sep 22)
2004: Kerry 37%
Bush 63%
2000: Gore 42%
Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 43%
Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 41%
Bush 48%
Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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Strong Dem (207)
Weak Dem (57)
Barely Dem (65)
Exactly tied (15)
Barely GOP (31)
Weak GOP (63)
Strong GOP (100)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today:
ME
NM
OH
PA
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):
FL
IA
NV
NM
OH
VA
GOP pickups (vs. 2004):
(None)
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