absentee ballot for overseas voter

One State Two State, Red State Blue State


Many people think that the states on the East Coast, West Coast, Upper Midwest, and Southwest are blue and the rest are red. That mental model is really not very accurate. While it holds for presidential elections, it does not hold nearly as well for governor, senator, and house delegations. As a simple example, three states that went most heavily for Obama in 2008 all have Republican governors. Similarly, the two states that went most heavily for McCain have Democratic governors. The blue states have nine Republican senators and the red states have 23 Democratic senators. The conclusion is that you shouldn't judge how a Senate race will go based on how the state went in the presidential election.

The chart below lists all the states in order of how Democratic they are in terms of the 2008 presidential vote. Hawaii is the bluest and Oklahoma and Wyoming are tied for being the reddest. The names of the states Obama carried are in blue cells; the McCain ones are in red cells. The next three columns show the percentage of the vote that went to Obama, to McCain, and the difference. The governors, senators, and House delegations that are "wrong" (don't match the presidential vote) are shown in blue or red, with ties in gray.

An asterisk after the party designator means that the seat is up for election in 2010 (or in the case of the New Jersey and Virginia governors, 2009.

The raw data is available in .csv format for Excel.

State O M Dif Governor Senior senator Junior senator House D House R Net
Hawaii 72 27 45 Linda Lingle (R)* Daniel Inouye (D)* Daniel Akaka (D) 2 0 2
Vermont 67 30 37 James H. Douglas (R)* Patrick Leahy (D)* Bernie Sanders (I) 1 0 1
Rhode Island 63 35 28 Don Carcieri (R)* Jack Reed (D) Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 2 0 2
New York 63 36 27 David Paterson (D)* Chuck Schumer (D)* Kirsten Gillibrand (D)* 26 3 23
Maryland 62 36 26 Martin O'Malley (D)* Barbara Mikulski (D)* Ben Cardin (D) 7 1 6
Massachusetts 62 36 26 Deval Patrick (D)* Ted Kennedy (D) John Kerry (D) 10 0 10
Delaware 62 37 25 Jack Markell (D) Tom Carper (D) Ted Kaufman (D)* 0 1 -1
Illinois 62 37 25 Pat Quinn (D)* Richard Durbin (D) Roland Burris (D)* 12 7 5
California 61 37 24 Arnie Schwarzenegger(R)* Dianne Feinstein (D) Barbara Boxer (D)* 34 19 15
Connecticut 61 38 23 M. Jodi Rell (R)* Chris Dodd (D)* Joe Lieberman (I) 5 0 5
Maine 58 40 18 John Baldacci (D)* Olympia Snowe (R) Susan Collins (R) 2 0 2
Washington 58 40 18 Christine Gregoire (D) Patty Murray (D)* Maria Cantwell (D) 6 3 3
Oregon 57 40 17 Ted Kulongoski (D)* Ron Wyden (D)* Jeff Merkley (D) 4 1 3
Michigan 57 41 16 Jennifer Granholm (D)* Carl Levin (D) Debbie Stabenow (D) 8 7 1
New Jersey 57 42 15 Jon Corzine (D)* Frank Lautenberg (D) Bob Menendez (D) 8 5 3
New Mexico 57 42 15 Bill Richardson (D)* Jeff Bingaman (D) Tom Udall (D) 3 0 3
Wisconsin 56 42 14 Jim Doyle (D)* Herb Kohl (D) Russell Feingold (D)* 5 3 2
Nevada 55 43 12 Jim Gibbons (R)* Harry Reid (D)* John Ensign (R) 2 1 1
Pennsylvania 55 44 11 Ed Rendell (D)* Arlen Specter (D)* Bob Casey (D) 12 7 5
Iowa 54 44 10 Chet Culver (D)* Chuck Grassley (R)* Tom Harkin (D) 3 2 1
Minnesota 54 44 10 Tim Pawlenty (R)* Amy Klobuchar (D) Al Franken (D) 5 3 2
Colorado 54 45 9 Bill Ritter (D)* Mark Udall (D) Michael Bennet (D)* 5 2 3
New Hampshire 54 45 9 John Lynch (D)* Judd Gregg (R)* Jeanne Shaheen (D) 2 0 2
Virginia 53 46 7 Tim Kaine (D)* Jim Webb (D) Mark Warner (D) 6 5 1
Ohio 51 47 4 Ted Strickland (D)* George Voinovich (R)* Sherrod Brown (D) 10 8 2
Florida 51 48 3 Charlie Crist (R)* Bill Nelson (D) Mel Martinez (R)* 10 15 -5
Indiana 50 49 1 Mitchell Daniels (R) Dick Lugar (R) Evan Bayh (D)* 5 4 1
North Carolina 50 49 1 Beverly Perdue (D) Richard Burr (R)* Kay Hagan (D) 8 5 3
 
Missouri 48 49 -1 Jay Nixon (D) Kit Bond (R)* Claire McCaskill (D) 4 5 -1
Montana 47 50 -3 Brian Schweitzer (D) Max Baucus (D) Jon Tester (D) 0 1 -1
Georgia 47 52 -5 Sonny Perdue (R)* Saxby Chambliss (R) Johnny Isakson (R)* 6 7 -1
North Dakota 45 53 -8 John Hoeven (R) Kent Conrad (D) Byron Dorgan (D)* 1 0 1
South Dakota 45 53 -8 Mike Rounds (R)* Tim Johnson (D) John Thune (R)* 1 0 1
Arizona 45 54 -9 Jan Brewer(R)* John McCain (R)* Jon Kyl (R) 5 3 2
South Carolina 45 54 -9 Mark Sanford (R)* Lindsey Graham (R) Jim DeMint (R)* 2 4 -2
Texas 44 55 -11 Rick Perry (R)* Kay Hutchison (R) John Cornyn (R) 12 20 -8
Mississippi 43 56 -13 Haley Barbour (R) Thad Cochran (R) Roger Wicker (R) 3 1 2
West Virginia 43 56 -13 Joe Manchin III (D) Robert Byrd (D) Jay Rockefeller (D) 2 1 1
Kansas 42 57 -15 Mark Parkinson (D)* Sam Brownback (R) Pat Roberts (R) 2 4 -2
Nebraska 42 57 -15 David Heineman (R)* Ben Nelson (D) Mike Johanns (R) 0 3 -3
Tennessee 42 57 -15 Phil Bredesen (D)* Lamar Alexander (R) Bob Corker (R) 5 4 1
Kentucky 41 57 -16 Steve Beshear (D) Mitch McConnell (R) Jim Bunning (R)* 1 3 -2
Louisiana 40 59 -19 Bobby Jindal (R) Mary Landrieu (D) David Vitter (R)* 1 6 -5
Arkansas 39 59 -20 Mike Beebe (D)* Blanche Lincoln (D)* Mark Pryor (D) 3 1 2
Alabama 39 60 -21 Robert Riley (R)* Richard Shelby (R)* Jeff Sessions (R) 3 4 -1
Alaska 38 59 -21 Sarah Palin (R)* Lisa Murkowski (R)* Mark Begich (D) 0 1 -1
Idaho 36 62 -26 Butch Otter (R)* James Risch (R) Michael Crapo (R)* 1 1 0
Utah 34 63 -29 Gary Herbert (R) Orrin Hatch (R) Robert Bennett (R)* 1 2 -1
Oklahoma 34 66 -32 Brad Henry (D)* James Inhofe (R) Tom Coburn (R)* 1 4 -3
Wyoming 33 65 -32 Dave Freudenthal (D)* Michael Enzi (R) John Barrasso (R) 0 1 -1

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