May 30 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

Senate map and races
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News: Updated May 30

Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Democratic primaries Republican primaries Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain

News from the Votemaster

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets tomorrow and will decide what to do about Florida and Michigan. Most likely result on Florida is seating all the delegates but with half a vote each. Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot, will be a bit trickier, but undoubtedly some compromise will come out. Chances are Clinton will pick up a few dozen delegates but not enough to make much of a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

Nanyc Pelosi and Harry Reid are now starting to push the supers, many of whom are representatives or senators, to get off the fence. After Wednesday, when the Montana and South Dakota voters have spoken, there is no excuse saying "I'm waiting to see what the voters want." By Wednesday morning, every Democratic voter who wanted to speak will have had the opportunity. It is expected that large numbers of supers will commit next week.

No primary polls today, but we have several general election polls.

State Clinton McCain Start End Pollster
Mississippi 38% 48% May 27 May 27 Rasmussen
State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Alabama 32% 60% May 27 May 27 Rasmussen
Kansas 39% 49% May 16 May 18 SurveyUSA
Michigan 40% 44% May 19 May 22 EPIC-MRA
Mississippi 44% 50% May 27 May 27 Rasmussen

Of special note is a Rasmussen poll for MS-B, where appointed senator Roger Wicker is trying to get elected to the rest of Trent Lott's term. It is a dead heat between Wicker and former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), a conservative Democrat, with Musgrove ahead 47% to 46%. The Democrats are very likely to pick up Republican seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico and have reasonable chances in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. If now Mississippi (and North Carolina) are in play, as recent polls suggest, the Republicans have major battles on their hands in 10 senatorial contests. A year ago nobody would have believed in five battles to be possible. Only one Democrat, Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is in any danger, and probably not that much, really. At this point, a Democratic win of 5-10 seats in the Senate looks very plausible.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

From the table below, it is clear that Obama's lead is now about 200 delegates.


Source Clinton Obama Obama-Clinton
NY Times 1777 1978 +201
AP 1782 1982 +200
CNN 1782 1981 +199
ABC 1776 1983 +207
CBS 1778 1979 +201
MSNBC 1784 1982 +198

Needed to win: 2026

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster