May 19

Senate map and races Previous report Next report News: Updated May 19 Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%   In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

Tomorrow Kentucky votes and Oregon's all mail-in election finishes. Last Thursday's posting covered the details of the Kentucky Democratic primary. Now Oregon.

Oregon will send 65 delegates to the DNC as follows:

The district-level delegates will be chosen by congressional district. Here is a map of Oregon's congressional districts.

Here is the breakdown by CD. The last two columns show the number of Clinton and Obama delegates if Obama wins every district by 55%.

With a statewide win of 55%, Obama would also get seven at-large delegates to Clinton's five. The PLEOs would be split 3-3. Thus a 55% Obama win gives him 29 pledged delegates to her 23, a net win of six delegates. Combined with a net win of 14 delegates in Kentucky, Clinton would be the winner for the day reaping a net gain of 8 delegates. But this is likely to be best case scenario for Clinton. Obama might do very well in KY-06 (Lexington) due to its large black, student, and horsey areas. He might also do exceptionally well in OR-01 and OR-03, both of which include parts of Portland, a relatively well-off city with a lot of students and creative types.

The Hill is reporting that House minority leader John Boehner (R-OH) met with NRCC chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) Friday and Cole will remain at his job despite the fact that he is doing it so badly that Republicans fear losing 10-20 seats in the House in November. Earlier rumors said Cole was in trouble and about to lose his job. Boehner can't fire Cole without causing a big storm and perhaps Cole told Boehner he had no plans to resign his post. Who knows.

Speaking of resigning, Vito Fossella (R-NY), the congressman with two families has been very quiet all week. He's probably waiting to see if the storm blows over. If he decides to stick it and out run again, he may be an easier target than an open seat. While Staten Island is suburban in character, it is still New York City and saying "I support family values so much I have two families" is going to be a tough sell in the city. No matter what he does, DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen is undoubtedly going to go after the seat.

One of John McCain's top fund raisers has resigned due to a conflict of interest. Fortunately for McCain, the RNC has about $40 million in the bank they can spend for him. However, against Obama's ability to raise $40 million a month, McCain is going to be at a financial disadvantage all year. Also, if the RNC spends all its money helping McCain, Republican Senate and House candidates won't get much help. President Bush would be pleased to raised money for McCain, but as Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) put it last week, "Bush is radioactive." If Bush and McCain appear together too often, the Democrats will be gleefully running against John McBush.

The only primary poll today is for Oregon, where ARG puts Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton 50% to 45%.

We have four general election polls as follows:

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Below are the current delegate counts. Averaging all seven news sources we get 1715 for Clinton and 1897 for Obama. Now give Clinton 32 + 23 for KY and OR and give Obama 18 + 29 for them and we have 1770 for Clinton and 1944 for Obama with 337 left to go. To get to 2026, Clinton would need 256 of them or about 75%. Actually, it is worse than that since 48 of the remaining ones come from Montana and South Dakota, states Obama is expected to win. Never say never in politics, but Clinton has a steep uphill climb and Tuesday won't change much.

Delegates

Needed to win: 2026

Here is another source for delegate totals.

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