General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?
News from the Votemaster
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Today is yet another "do-or-die" day with primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. There are three plausible scenarios. First, Hillary Clinton wins both of them, in which case a lot of people are going to be having second thoughts about Barack Obama. Voters may start to think of him as a one-month wonder. Second, Obama wins both of them. If so, the pressure on Clinton to withdraw will become immense. Party leaders will openly come out and tell her to quit for the sake of the party. Third, a split decision, in which case the race will probably muddle on. If Obama wins North Carolina by a larger margin than Clinton wins Indiana, then the math starts to kick in. He will have a lead of roughly 140 delegates with only 217 pledged delegates yet to be elected. That's a big hill for Clinton to climb.
Below are the polls for both Indiana and North Carolina for the past two weeks. The top four for Indiana and the top three for North Carolina are new today. As you can see, there is considerable spread, mostly due to how the pollsters gauge likely voters, how they deal with people who have already voted, and how many independents they think will vote in the Democratic primaries.
We have one general election poll today. Rasmussen has McCain beating Obama in Texas 48% to 43% and beating Clinton in Texas 49% to 43%.
Needed to win: 2025
Here is another source for delegate totals.
-- The Votemaster