Apr. 29 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

Senate map and races
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News: Updated Apr. 29

Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Democratic primaries Republican primaries Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain

News from the Votemaster

Indiana, like North Carolina, chooses its elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention by congressional district, of which it has nine. Here is the map of the Indiana congressional districts.


Indiana will send 85 delegates to the Democratic National Convention as follows:

Type of delegate Number Pledged? Selection date Selected by
District-level 47 Yes June 212 State convention
PLEO 9 Yes June 21 State convention
At-large 16 Yes June 21 State convention
Add-ons 1 No June 21 State convention
DNC members 7 No N/A Ex officio
Representatives 5 No N/A Ex officio

The first step in the selection of delegates is the primary tomorrow, where the number of district-level delegates for each candidate will be chosen. The actual delegates will not be chosen tomorrow, but at the state convention next month. Here is the breakdown per congressional district along with CQ Politics' prediction of how the delegate allocation will go.

CD Delegates Cities PVI Party Rep Notes Obama Clinton
1 6 Gary D+8 D Peter Visclosky "Near Chicago, large black population 3 3
2 6 South Bend R+4 D Joe Donnelly "Universities, blacks, and blue-collar Catolics 3 3
3 4 Fort Wayne R+16 R Mark Souder Dan Quayle's home base 2 2
4 4 Lafayette R+17 R Steve Buyer Heavy Republican district + Purdue University 2 2
5 4 Indianapolis suburbs R+20 R Dan Burton Very heavy Republican 1 3
6 5 Muncie R+11 R Mike Pence Low-income, high unemployment district" 2 3
7 6 Indianapolis suburbs D+9 D Andre Carson 30% black 4 2
8 6 Evansville R+9 D Brad Ellsworth Culturally conservative area 3 3
9 6 Bloomington R+7 D Baron Hill Conservative district + Indiana university 3 3
Totals 47           23 24

If this scenario holds, Hillary Clinton will get 24 district-level delegates and Barack Obama will get 23. As usual, the problem in getting more is that so many districts have an even number of delegates, so you need a landslide to get more than half the delegates. The PLEOs and at-large delegates are divvied up according to the statewide totals. Suppose Clinton gets 55% of the vote. Then she gets 5 PLEOs and Obama gets 4 and she gets 9 at-large delegates to his 7. Thus a substantial win for Clinton nets her four delegates.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com