Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

Apr. 29

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

	Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
	McCain beats both ≥ 5%
	Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
	Obama > Clinton by < 5%
	Clinton > Obama by < 5%
	Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%

In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

Indiana, like North Carolina, chooses its elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention by congressional district, of which it has nine. Here is the map of the Indiana congressional districts.

Indiana will send 85 delegates to the Democratic National Convention as follows:

Type of delegate	Number	Pledged?	Selection date	Selected by
District-level	47	Yes	June 212	State convention
PLEO	9	Yes	June 21	State convention
At-large	16	Yes	June 21	State convention
Add-ons	1	No	June 21	State convention
DNC members	7	No	N/A	Ex officio
Representatives	5	No	N/A	Ex officio

The first step in the selection of delegates is the primary tomorrow, where the number of district-level delegates for each candidate will be chosen. The actual delegates will not be chosen tomorrow, but at the state convention next month. Here is the breakdown per congressional district along with CQ Politics' prediction of how the delegate allocation will go.

CD	Delegates	Cities	PVI	Party	Rep	Notes	Obama	Clinton
1	6	Gary	D+8	D	Peter Visclosky	"Near Chicago, large black population	3	3
2	6	South Bend	R+4	D	Joe Donnelly	"Universities, blacks, and blue-collar Catolics	3	3
3	4	Fort Wayne	R+16	R	Mark Souder	Dan Quayle's home base	2	2
4	4	Lafayette	R+17	R	Steve Buyer	Heavy Republican district + Purdue University	2	2
5	4	Indianapolis suburbs	R+20	R	Dan Burton	Very heavy Republican	1	3
6	5	Muncie	R+11	R	Mike Pence	Low-income, high unemployment district"	2	3
7	6	Indianapolis suburbs	D+9	D	Andre Carson	30% black	4	2
8	6	Evansville	R+9	D	Brad Ellsworth	Culturally conservative area	3	3
9	6	Bloomington	R+7	D	Baron Hill	Conservative district + Indiana university	3	3
Totals	47						23	24

If this scenario holds, Hillary Clinton will get 24 district-level delegates and Barack Obama will get 23. As usual, the problem in getting more is that so many districts have an even number of delegates, so you need a landslide to get more than half the delegates. The PLEOs and at-large delegates are divvied up according to the statewide totals. Suppose Clinton gets 55% of the vote. Then she gets 5 PLEOs and Obama gets 4 and she gets 9 at-large delegates to his 7. Thus a substantial win for Clinton nets her four delegates.

-- The Votemaster