General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?
News from the Votemaster
The Pennsylvania primary has drained everyone. There isn't much actual political news right now. Just a lot of sniping and infighting about whose fault it will be if the Democrats do the impossible and lose an election that nobody thought they could lose.
We do have two new polls in Indiana however. ARG has Clinton ahead 50% to 45% and Selzer has Obama ahead 41% to 38%. Ann Selzer is a cheery redhead who runs a polling firm in Des Moines. Normally she polls only Iowa and her Iowa caucus polls are legendary in their accuracy. Her final poll before the Iowa caucuses said Obama would beat Clinton by 7%; he beat her by 9%. But once in a while she branches out and polls a neighboring state. She says that Indiana is now a statistical tie. Of course there will be a hard fought campaign until the May 6 primary, so a lot can change.
Selzer also did a general election poll for Indiana. It shows Obama beating McCain there 49% to 41% whereas Clinton ties McCain at 46%. However, Research 2000 has McCain beating both of them. A Rasmussen poll shows Obama and McCain in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania whereas Clinton beats him 47% to 42%. These data strengthen her case that she is stronger in the traditional industrial Democratic states and his case that he puts more states in play.
If you have some free time and want to know how the remaining states will vote in the Democratic primary, the NY Times has produced a nice chart telling you how a county will vote. All you need is the demographic information, which you can no doubt find with a bit of help from Google.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
Needed to win: 2024
Here is another source for delegate totals.
-- The Votemaster