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Is Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) a liberal? Is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a moderate? What about the other 98 senators? Where do they fit on the ideological spectrum? Let's look at some numbers. Hundreds of interest groups rate all members of Congress on how they vote on bills of special importance to them. If you vote with them all the time, you get a 100% rating. If you vote against them all the time, you get a 0% rating. These numbers are then distributed to their membership in an attempt to get members to vote for good members of Congress and against bad ones.
These ratings give us a tool to rate all the senators (there are too many House members to do this unless I can find a volunteer). Below seven representative liberal groups have been chosen and their ratings of all the senators given. The last column is the mean value. If you are a liberal, a high score is good (always votes correctly). If you are a conservative, a low score is good (never sucked in by that liberal stuff).
There are many noteworthy items to be found here. To start with, it is all blue on top and all red on the bottom (with senators Sanders and Lieberman counting as honorary Democrats since they caucus with the Democrats). With three exceptions, all Republicans are less liberal than the most conservative Democrat, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). The three exceptions are the two ladies from Maine, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who are strongly pro-choice. If NARAL and abortion were not in the list, they would drop dramatically. The other Republican who floated to the top is Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who, unlike John McCain, really is a maverick.
To start with, the Senate is incredibly polarized. Younger readers may not believe this, but it was not always so. In the 1950s and 1960s, the Senate was far less ideological. Northern Republicans like Jacob Javits (R-NY) were actually quite liberal and southern Democrats like Sen. James Eastland (D-MS) were still angry with the Republicans for freeing the slaves. In those days, the great divide was north-south, not Democrats-Republicans. Only when Richard Nixon began implementing his Southern strategy (i.e., using racism to win the votes of poor Southern whites) did we get to the current polarization.
So, what about Obama, Clinton, and McCain? Obama at 80% and Clinton at 82% are (1) not far apart and (2) among the least liberal Democrats. In contrast, John McCain at 9% is one of the most conservative Republicans. When McCain campaigned this year as a true conservative, he was telling the truth. He is more conservative than Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the minority leader, and more conservative than all the senators from Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia, not known as hotbeds of liberalism. Conclusion: when people say Obama and Clinton are liberals, that's not true; when people say McCain is a conservative, that is true.
That aside, there are some real anomalies here. For example, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) is quite liberal, more so than the Barbaras (Boxer and Mikulski, both of whom are known as real firebrands). But Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is the most conservative Democrat, despite the demographics of the two states being pretty similar. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who is often referred to in the blogosphere as a crypto-Republican actually has a more liberal rating than the other senator from Connecticut, Chris Dodd, who ran for President as a liberal.
Among Republicans, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is one of the most liberal, despite coming from a rock-ribbed Republican state. And Lugar's record of being one of the Senate's few grown-ups on foreign policy issues does not even play a role here. And what about Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah? He ranks in the top quarter of Republicans. Surprise.
One caveat: a different selection of interest groups would no doubt give a different ordering. Still, this gives an indication. If you want to play with the data yourself, it is available in .csv format. A similar study of conservative groups is in the works and will be posted here in due course of time.
The table below is sorted on mean rating. Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.
The seven groups used in this study are:
ACLU - American Civil Liberties UnionADA - Americans for Democratic Action
CDF - Children's Defense Fund
LCV - League of Conservation Voters
NAACP - National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
NARAL - National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League
SEIU - Service Employees International Union
For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate. The 2005 senator ratings are available here.
| State | Senator | ACLU | ADA | CDF | LCV | NAACP | NARAL | SEIU | Mean |
| Maryland | Ben Cardin (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 96% |
| Wisconsin | Russ Feingold (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 96% |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 96% |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 96% |
| Hawaii | Daniel Akaka (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 87% | 93% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| New Mexico | Jeff Bingaman (D) | 91% | 90% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 94% |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 94% |
| Illinois | Dick Durbin (D) | 82% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| Iowa | Tom Harkin (D) | 90% | 95% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 94% |
| New Jersey | Frank Lautenberg (D) | 86% | 90% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| Vermont | Patrick Leahy (D) | 91% | 95% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| Washington | Patty Murray (D) | 90% | 90% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) | 82% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 94% |
| Washington | Maria Cantwell (D) | 91% | 95% | 90% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 93% |
| New York | Charles Schumer (D) | 91% | 90% | 90% | 93% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 93% |
| Oregon | Ron Wyden (D) | 91% | 95% | 90% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 93% |
| Massachusetts | John Kerry (D) | 90% | 90% | 90% | 93% | 100% | 90% | 90% | 92% |
| Wisconsin | Herbert Kohl (D) | 64% | 95% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 92% |
| Vermont | Bernard Sanders (I) | 91% | 95% | 90% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 92% |
| Michigan | Carl Levin (D) | 82% | 95% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 90% | 91% |
| Nevada | Harry Reid (D) | 82% | 85% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 91% |
| Pennsylvania | Robert Casey (D) | 73% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 91% | 90% |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 73% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 90% |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 86% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 90% |
| North Dakota | Byron Dorgan (D) | 100% | 85% | 90% | 87% | 93% | 100% | 66% | 89% |
| California | Barbara Boxer (D) | 80% | 80% | 90% | 80% | 93% | 100% | 91% | 88% |
| Maryland | Barbara Mikulski (D) | 45% | 85% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 88% |
| Delaware | Thomas Carper (D) | 57% | 85% | 90% | 93% | 93% | 100% | 91% | 87% |
| Massachusetts | Edward Kennedy (D) | 82% | 85% | 90% | 93% | 80% | 90% | 90% | 87% |
| Florida | Bill Nelson (D) | 36% | 90% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 87% |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | 91% | 95% | 80% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 66% | 87% |
| Indiana | Evan Bayh (D) | 55% | 95% | 100% | 73% | 93% | 100% | 83% | 86% |
| California | Diane Feinstein (D) | 55% | 90% | 100% | 87% | 87% | 100% | 81% | 86% |
| Colorado | Ken Salazar(D) | 64% | 85% | 90% | 73% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 86% |
| Hawaii | Daniel Inouye (D) | 36% | 90% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 85% |
| Virginia | James Webb (D) | 55% | 85% | 90% | 87% | 93% | 100% | 75% | 84% |
| West Virginia | John Rockefeller (D) | 55% | 85% | 100% | 73% | 93% | 100% | 75% | 83% |
| New York | Hillary Clinton (D) | 82% | 75% | 70% | 73% | N/A | 100% | 91% | 82% |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill (D) | 64% | 90% | 80% | 73% | 100% | 100% | 66% | 82% |
| Montana | Max Baucus (D) | 91% | 80% | 80% | 67% | 93% | 100% | 58% | 81% |
| West Virginia | Robert Byrd (D) | 82% | 80% | 90% | 73% | 87% | 100% | 54% | 81% |
| Illinois | Barack Obama (D) | 88% | 75% | 60% | 67% | N/A | 100% | 90% | 80% |
| North Dakota | Kent Conrad (D) | 64% | 80% | 90% | 73% | 87% | 75% | 75% | 78% |
| Connecticut | Joseph Lieberman (I) | 27% | 70% | 100% | 93% | 87% | 100% | 72% | 78% |
| Connecticut | Christopher Dodd (D) | 80% | 70% | 60% | 60% | N/A | 100% | 88% | 76% |
| Arkansas | Mark Pryor (D) | 45% | 70% | 90% | 60% | 93% | 100% | 66% | 75% |
| Maine | Olympia Snowe (R) | 55% | 60% | 90% | 80% | 80% | 100% | 58% | 75% |
| Delaware | Joe Biden (D) | 88% | 75% | 50% | 67% | N/A | 75% | 90% | 74% |
| Arkansas | Blanche Lincoln (D) | 40% | 90% | 80% | 67% | 93% | 60% | 91% | 74% |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | 45% | 55% | 90% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 50% | 72% |
| Louisiana | Mary Landrieu (D) | 55% | 80% | 80% | 53% | 93% | 65% | 66% | 70% |
| Nebraska | Ben Nelson (D) | 45% | 75% | 90% | 67% | 80% | 25% | 83% | 66% |
| Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter (R) | 36% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 73% | 100% | 41% | 63% |
| South Dakota | Tim Johnson (D) | 43% | 40% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 90% | 100% | 56% |
| Oregon | Gordon Smith (R) | 36% | 55% | 70% | 73% | 53% | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Indiana | Richard Lugar (R) | 30% | 45% | 80% | 53% | 47% | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Minnesota | Norm Coleman (R) | 18% | 50% | 80% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 63% | 44% |
| Alaska | Lisa Murkowski (R) | 27% | 30% | 60% | 40% | 53% | 75% | 25% | 44% |
| Alaska | Ted Stevens (R) | 18% | 25% | 70% | 27% | 33% | 75% | 25% | 39% |
| Virginia | John Warner (R) | 27% | 35% | 60% | 47% | 33% | 40% | 25% | 38% |
| Wyoming | Thomas (R) (d. 2007) | 100% | N/A | 50% | 0% | 20% | N/A | 0% | 34% |
| Utah | Orrin Hatch (R) | 18% | 30% | 70% | 13% | 53% | 0% | 45% | 33% |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | 36% | 15% | 60% | 53% | 40% | 0% | 25% | 33% |
| Iowa | Charles Grassley (R) | 18% | 30% | 60% | 33% | 47% | 0% | 25% | 30% |
| Ohio | George Voinovich (R) | 27% | 25% | 50% | 20% | 53% | 0% | 16% | 27% |
| Tennessee | Lamar Alexander (R) | 20% | 20% | 60% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 16% | 26% |
| Tennessee | Bob Corker (R | 9% | 20% | 60% | 27% | 33% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| New Mexico | Pete Domenici (R) | 9% | 25% | 60% | 20% | 47% | 0% | 16% | 25% |
| Nebraska | Chuck Hagel (R) | 27% | 30% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 41% | 25% |
| Texas | Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | 9% | 20% | 70% | 7% | 40% | 0% | 25% | 24% |
| Missouri | Kit Bond (R) | 9% | 25% | 50% | 0% | 27% | 25% | 16% | 22% |
| Mississippi | Trent Lott (R) (resigned) | 17% | 15% | 50% | N/A | N/A | 0% | 16% | 20% |
| Utah | Robert Bennett (R) | 9% | 15% | 50% | 7% | 33% | 0% | 25% | 20% |
| New Hampshire | Judd Gregg (R) | 20% | 10% | 30% | 60% | 13% | 0% | 8% | 20% |
| South Dakota | John Thune (R) | 9% | 20% | 40% | 33% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 20% |
| Idaho | Larry Craig (R) | 22% | 15% | 50% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 16% | 18% |
| Wyoming | John Barrasso (R) | N/A | 10% | 33% | 33% | N/A | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Florida | Mel Martinez (R) | 9% | 20% | 50% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 16% | 17% |
| Alabama | Richard Shelby (R) | 18% | 20% | 40% | 7% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 17% |
| North Carolina | Elizabeth Dole (R) | 18% | 15% | 40% | 7% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 16% |
| Kansas | Pat Roberts (R) | 9% | 20% | 40% | 0% | 27% | 0% | 16% | 16% |
| Alabama | Jeffrey Sessions (R) | 18% | 10% | 40% | 13% | 20% | 0% | 8% | 16% |
| Georgia | Saxby Chambliss (R) | 10% | 10% | 40% | 7% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 15% |
| Kentucky | James Bunning (R) | 20% | 10% | 30% | 7% | 13% | 0% | 16% | 14% |
| Mississippi | Thad Cochran (R) | 9% | 15% | 50% | 0% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| Idaho | Mike Crapo (R | 18% | 15% | 30% | 13% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| Nevada | John Ensign (R) | 9% | 0% | 40% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 8% | 14% |
| South Carolina | Lindsey Graham (R) | 14% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 20% | 0% | 9% | 14% |
| Georgia | Johnny Isakson (R) | 9% | 10% | 40% | 7% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 14% |
| Wyoming | Michael Enzi (R) | 18% | 10% | 40% | 13% | N/A | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell (R) | 9% | 10% | 30% | 7% | 27% | 0% | 8% | 13% |
| Kansas | Sam Brownback (R) | 0% | 5% | 40% | 7% | N/A | 0% | 12% | 11% |
| Colorado | Wayne Allard (R) | 9% | 10% | 30% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Texas | John Cornyn (R) | 9% | 15% | 40% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| North Carolina | Richard Burr (R) | 9% | 0% | 30% | 7% | 13% | 0% | 8% | 10% |
| Louisiana | David Vitter (R) | 18% | 10% | 20% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 9% | 10% |
| Arizona | Jon Kyl (R) | 9% | 5% | 30% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 9% |
| Arizona | John McCain (R) | 17% | 10% | 10% | 0% | N/A | 0% | 14% | 9% |
| Oklahoma | Tom Coburn (R) | 18% | 5% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| South Carolina | Jim DeMint (R) | 18% | 0% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| Oklahoma | James Inhofe (R) | 18% | 10% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| Mississippi | Roger Wicker (R) | 0% | N/A | 20% | 5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3% |
Thanks to Mike Martin for collecting the data.
Here are the new polls. It is hard to say what is going on in Pennsylvania. The polls are all over the map.
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | McCain | Huckabee | Paul |
| North Carolina | SurveyUSA | Apr. 7 | 39% | 49% | |||
| Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac U. | Apr. 6 | 50% | 44% | |||
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | Apr. 7 | 48% | 43% | |||
| Pennsylvania | SurveyUSA | Apr. 7 | 56% | 38% |
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
Delegates
| Source | Clinton | Obama | BHO-HRC | Edwards | McCain | Romney | Huckabee | Paul |
| Washington Post | 1501 | 1638 | +137 | 1334 | 278 | |||
| NY Times | 1472 | 1628 | +154 | 12 | 1162 | 142 | 232 | 5 |
| AP | 1501 | 1638 | +137 | 18 | 1334 | 257 | 278 | 14 |
| CNN | 1486 | 1629 | +143 | 26 | 1325 | 255 | 267 | 16 |
| ABC | 1496 | 1633 | +137 | 32 | 1267 | 273 | 272 | 14 |
| CBS | 1493 | 1631 | +138 | 26 | 1241 | 149 | 231 | 10 |
| MSNBC | 1507 | 1642 | +135 | 26 | 1266 | 293 | 262 | 14 |
Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.
Here is another source for delegate totals.
-- The Votemaster