Apr. 02 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

Senate map with polls
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News: Updated Apr. 02

Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Democratic primaries Republican primaries Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain

News from the Votemaster

I'm on the road and updates may be minimal and sporadic this week.

Three new polls today. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is still ahead of Barack Obama, but her lead is a bit smaller than it has been in the past. On the plus side for her, in Indiana, the first recent poll gives her a substantial lead over Obama. This is good news indeed for her since even a small victory in Pennsylvania will not close the gap with Obama in terms of delegates. Victories in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky will give her some momentum. On the other hand, Obama victories in North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota may roughly cancel them out and in terms of delegates, things may end up where they are now.

Here isthe primary polling data.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Indiana SurveyUSA Mar. 31 52% 43%      
Pennsylvania Rasmussen Mar. 31 47% 42%      
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Mar. 31 53% 41%      

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1501 1631 +130   1334   278  
NY Times 1472 1626 +154 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1500 1632 +132 18 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1486 1626 +140 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1497 1628 +131 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1492 1625 +133 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1507 1638 +131 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com