General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?
News from the Votemaster
I'm on the road and updates may be minimal and sporadic this week.
Three new polls today. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is still ahead of Barack Obama, but her lead is a bit smaller than it has been in the past. On the plus side for her, in Indiana, the first recent poll gives her a substantial lead over Obama. This is good news indeed for her since even a small victory in Pennsylvania will not close the gap with Obama in terms of delegates. Victories in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky will give her some momentum. On the other hand, Obama victories in North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota may roughly cancel them out and in terms of delegates, things may end up where they are now.
Here isthe primary polling data.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.
Here is another source for delegate totals.
-- The Votemaster