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News from the Votemaster

Here are the polls for the primaries. What is becoming increasingly clear is the Hillary is going to be hard to stop. For quite a while, John Edwards had been leading in Iowa and his whole strategy was based on leveraging a win in Iowa. We now have three new Iowa polls in which Hillary is leading, throwing Edwards' strategy in doubt. If she wins Iowa and New Hampshire, where she has a large lead, it is hard to see either Obama or Edwards stopping her.

On the Republican side, the situation is muddy. Mitt Romney continues to lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire and, in some polls, in South Carolina. He also has a decent amount of money in the bank, but in large part due to loans from himself. But Romney is barely in the double digits nationally. The big question for him is whether he can convert (narrow) wins in the early small states into national support for the superduper primaries on on Feb 5.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Alabama Capital Survey Sep. 19 45% 25% 9% 21% 14% 7% 31%
Alabama ARG Aug. 2 38% 19% 17% 26% 16% 3% 31%
Alabama Capital Survey July 19 33% 29% 9% 20% 11% 5% 34%
Alabama Capital Survey May 1 37% 21% 9% 29% 23% 7%  
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arizona ARG Oct. 9 14% 14% 16% 19% 26% 18% 15%
Arizona Arizona State U. Sep. 23 38% 18% 19% 22% 27% 17% 17%
Arizona ARG July 26 39% 25% 8% 23% 32% 7% 15%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll May 29 26% 22% 7% 20% 35% 7%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%  
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
California San Jose State U. Oct. 8 42% 20% 14% 34% 17% 1% 7%
California Field Poll Sep. 11 41% 23% 14% 22% 15% 16% 16%
California SurveyUSA Sep. 9 51% 27% 14% 28% 18% 14% 26%
California Field Poll Aug. 12 35% 22% 16% 35% 9% 14% 13%
California SurveyUSA Aug. 5 51% 27% 14% 39% 16% 10% 19%
California ARG Aug. 2 35% 22% 16% 30% 7% 18% 18%
California Public Policy Inst. June 19 41% 25% 12% 31% 16% 13% 13%
California ARG May 8 37% 28% 15% 27% 24% 11%  
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%  
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%  
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%  
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Colorado ARG Sep. 18 36% 20% 19% 20% 12% 8% 25%
Colorado ARG July 18 39% 22% 10% 35% 11% 9% 20%
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. May 7 28% 20% 8% 36% 15% 9%  
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%  
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Delaware Fairleigh Dickinson U. Feb. 25 34% 19% 10%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Florida Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 51% 17% 10% 27% 8% 17% 19%
Florida Rasmussen Sep. 20 47% 22% 11% 29% 12% 11% 23%
Florida Mason-Dixon Sep. 18 47% 19% 9% 24% 9% 13% 23%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Sep. 9 42% 13% 9% 28% 10% 11% 17%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 43% 13% 8% 26% 11% 9% 19%
Florida Mason-Dixon July 26 31% 17% 12% 21% 11% 7% 18%
Florida Quinnipiac U. July 16 36% 14% 9% 30% 10% 9% 18%
Florida ARG July 15 45% 25% 9% 33% 7% 12% 27%
Florida Quinnipiac U. June 25 43% 16% 11% 29% 13% 9% 29%
Florida Zogby June 6 36% 16% 11% 31% 12% 12% 10%
Florida Schroth/Polling Co. May 9 42% 19% 12% 29% 15% 14%  
Florida ARG May 8 45% 17% 15% 31% 18% 11%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%  
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%  
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Georgia ARG Aug. 6 35% 25% 17% 20% 7% 14% 27%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Idaho Greg Smith July 13 31% 33% 15% 20% 14% 38% 18%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Illinois ARG July 9 33% 37% 10% 30% 12% 11% 21%
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Iowa Selzer Oct. 3 29% 22% 23% 11% 7% 29% 18%
Iowa ARG Sep. 29 30% 24% 19% 21% 11% 22% 16%
Iowa Princeton Survey Sep. 27 31% 25% 21% 15% 7% 25% 16%
Iowa LA Times Sep. 10 28% 19% 23% 16% 7% 28% 16%
Iowa ARG Aug. 29 28% 23% 20% 17% 5% 27% 13%
Iowa Zogby Aug. 18 30% 19% 23% 14% 6% 33% 12%
Iowa U. of Iowa Aug. 5 25% 19% 26% 11% 3% 28% 8%
Iowa Selzer July 31 26% 26% 27% 14% 26% 8% 13%
Iowa ARG July 30 30% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 13%
Iowa Research 2000 July 25 22% 16% 27% 13% 10% 25% 14%
Iowa ARG June 30 32% 13% 29% 18% 13% 25% 14%
Iowa Mason-Dixon June 16 22% 18% 21% 15% 6% 25% 17%
Iowa Selzer May 16 21% 23% 29% 17% 18% 30%  
Iowa Research 2000 May 15 28% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16%  
Iowa Zogby May 15 24% 22% 26% 16% 18% 17%  
Iowa ARG Apr. 30 23% 19% 27% 19% 26% 14%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%  
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%  
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%  
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%  
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Kansas Research 2000 May 23 27% 22% 21% 13% 13% 17%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Maine Critical Insights Apr. 27 39% 22% 16% 24% 21% 12%  
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Maryland OpinionWorks Aug. 26 32% 19% 10% 32% 13% 8% 12%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Apr. 15 32% 18% 19%        
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Michigan ARG Sep. 4 43% 21% 14% 13% 9% 39% 12%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 31 40% 21% 16% 23% 15% 25% 16%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 13 45% 26% 16% 19% 16% 12% 22%
Michigan EPIC/MRA June 13 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24% 8%
Michigan ARG May 7 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%  
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35%    
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%  
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Minnesota Princeton Survey Sep. 23 47% 22% 16% 27% 22% 5% 16%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Missouri ARG Aug. 6 40% 15% 22% 23% 14% 11% 22%
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Nevada Mason-Dixon Oct. 11 39% 21% 9% 28% 9% 17% 23%
Nevada ARG Oct. 9 51% 11% 14% 31% 11% 30% 9%
Nevada Research 2000 Aug. 16 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%
Nevada Research 2000 Aug. 16 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%
Nevada Mason-Dixon June 22 39% 17% 12% 17% 8% 20% 25%
Nevada ARG June 19 40% 16% 16% 21% 16% 23% 16%
Nevada Mason-Dixon May 1 37% 12% 13% 12% 19% 15%  
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%  
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Oct. 9 43% 21% 12% 21% 17% 27% 10%
New Hampshire ARG Sep. 29 41% 22% 10% 20% 20% 24% 8%
New Hampshire Zogby Sep. 28 38% 23% 12% 21% 16% 24% 7%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Sep. 24 41% 19% 11% 24% 18% 25% 13%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Sep. 16 40% 17% 14% 22% 12% 25% 19%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Sep. 14 36% 18% 12% 23% 14% 30% 8%
New Hampshire LA Times Sep. 10 35% 16% 16% 23% 12% 28% 11%
New Hampshire ARG Aug. 29 37% 17% 14% 23% 12% 27% 8%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Aug. 9 37% 22% 14% 20% 11% 32% 11%
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%  
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%  
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%  
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%  
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%  
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Jersey Monmouth U. Sep. 30 42% 23% 7% 44% 12% 8% 10%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Sep. 23 46% 15% 7% 45% 8% 6% 12%
New Jersey Rutgers/Eagleton Aug. 7 45% 21% 16% 61% 10% 5% 8%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. July 2 46% 19% 8% 48% 12% 7% 10%
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%  
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson U. Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New York Quinnipiac U. Sep. 30 47% 15% 7% 48% 8% 5% 8%
New York Siena Coll. Sep. 16 42% 17% 11% 47% 16% 6% 9%
New York Siena Coll. July 28 48% 14% 7% 40% 13% 7% 11%
New York Quinnipiac U. June 17 44% 14% 6% 46% 8% 3% 14%
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%  
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%  
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%  
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
North Carolina Elon U. Sep. 27 37% 18% 18% 21% 12% 8% 28%
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%  
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 47% 19% 11% 29% 10% 8% 17%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Sep. 3 44% 15% 11% 23% 17% 11% 15%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 41% 16% 11% 29% 11% 8% 11%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. July 9 35% 17% 13% 24% 14% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. June 25 46% 14% 15% 26% 16% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. May 13 38% 19% 11% 23% 17% 11%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%  
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oklahoma Sooner Apr. 30 29% 13% 29% 32% 23% 6%  
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oregon Riley Research Aug. 15 26% 18% 17% 16% 8% 15% 11%
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 41% 14% 11% 32% 13% 8% 13%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. Sep. 2 38% 21% 17% 32% 19% 12% 11%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 20 42% 12% 8% 31% 13% 7% 8%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 35% 19% 10% 29% 16% 3% 14%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. June 25 38% 22% 10% 29% 16% 4% 15%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. June 4 40% 18% 21% 29% 29% 12%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%  
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%  
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Rhode Island Brown U. Sep. 9 35% 16% 7%        
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
South Carolina ARG Sep. 29 41% 30% 7% 23% 15% 26% 10%
South Carolina Rasmussen Sep. 27 43% 30% 10% 20% 11% 15% 24%
South Carolina LA Times Sep. 10 45% 27% 7% 23% 15% 9% 26%
South Carolina ARG Aug. 29 32% 21% 24% 26% 12% 9% 21%
South Carolina Clemson U. Aug. 29 26% 16% 10% 18% 15% 11% 19%
South Carolina ARG July 30 29% 33% 18% 28% 10% 7% 27%
South Carolina Opinion Research July 18 27% 27% 17% 30% 21% 6% 18%
South Carolina ARG June 30 37% 22% 21% 22% 23% 8% 19%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon June 15 25% 34% 12% 21% 7% 11% 25%
South Carolina Winthrop U. May 27 29% 21% 11% 19% 14% 12% 6%
South Carolina ARG Apr. 30 36% 24% 18% 23% 36% 6%  
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%  
South Carolina Zogby Apr. 17 33% 26% 21% 19% 22% 10%  
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Texas U. of Texas May 7 33% 21% 8% 23% 27% 6% 11%
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%  

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