Rasmussen has just released new polls for Iowa.
Both races are close. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 27%,
followed by Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has passed Mitt Romney and now leads
with 28% to Romney's 25%. Rudy Giuliani is at 12%, closely followed by Fred
Thompson at 11%.
As we have pointed out many times, the media blow the Iowa caucuses up way
out of proportion. Iowa is a small, unrepresentative state, and the caucuses
have very low turnout (maybe 100,000 people for each party). Winning there
would have little predictive value for what follows, except for the fact
that whoever wins grabs all the headlines and TV time until New Hampshire
votes (in 2008, 5 days later). Then a second small, unrepresentative state
dominates the news for a week or so. If the same person, say, Jones, wins both, all the
pundits can talk about is: "Can Jones be stopped?"
Definitely under the radar but also very important is what is going on in
the races for Congress. In case you missed it, Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) is
resigning at the end of 2007, meaning that the Republicans will now have to
defend 23 Senate seats vs. 12 for the Democrats. There are six open seats, currently
all occupied by Republicans. Open seats are very important because
in races in which there is an incumbent running for reelection, the incumbent
wins in more than 90% of the cases.
Only when there is an open seat is there a real horse race, and in those
races, money is often the determining factor. Currently, the DSCC has about
three times as much money as the NRSC, and the GOP has to defend six open
seats to boot. Only two incumbent Democrats are in any danger--Sen. Tim Johnson
(D-SD), who had a stroke last year and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), many of whose
voters left the state after hurricane Katrina. If South Dakota governor
Mike Rounds declines to run for the Senate, Johnson is safe, meaning
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the DSCC has to play defense in only
one state, vs. at least ten states for NRCC chairman Sen. John Ensign (R-NV). In addition
to the six open GOP seats, Ensign has to worry about endangered incumbents
in Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), New Hampshire (Sen. John Sununu), Oregon (Sen.
Gordon Smith), and Minnesota (Sen. Norm Coleman).
When you add the money disparity into the mix, the Democrats could easily
pick up 5-7 seats in the Senate, not enough to force cloture, but enough
to make Republicans very dispirited. Below are the open Senate seats.
State
Incumbent
Party
Reason for Retirement
Colorado
Wayne Allard
GOP
Promised to retire after two terms; kept promise
Idaho
Larry Craig
GOP
Sex scandal in Minneapolis mens' room
Mississippi
Trent Lott
GOP
Mystery
Nebraska
Chuck Hagel
GOP
Disgusted with politics
New Mexico
Pete Domenici
GOP
Brain disease and scandals
Virginia
John Warner
GOP
Did what he could and wants to leave gracefully
The House looks almost as bad for the Republicans. So far,
22 representatives have announced they are not running.
Of these, 17 are Republicans and five are Democrats, and all
five Democrats are from safe districts. The Udall cousins are
running for the Senate and are favored to win,
Tom Allen is running for the Senate, Julia Carson has
lung cancer, and Michael McNulty has had enough.
Four of the Republican seats are safe (AL-02, CO-06, MS-03, and
WY-AL), but the other 13 will be battlegrounds. In addition, there
there are half a dozen seats the Republicans held in 2006 by
tiny margins and will have to pour money into to defend. An
example is NC-08, in which a totally unknown high school teacher
with no political experience, no money, and no support from
the national party, came within 329 votes of unseating a wealthy four-term
Republican congressman.
There are a few Democratic freshmen who come from hostile districts such
as Brad Ellsworth in IN-08, but most of them won by decent margins and
have voted fairly conservatively in Congress and most are raising money
like there is no tomorrow. For example, freshmen Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20),
Ron Klein (FL-22), and Joe Sestak (PA-07) have all raised $1.5 million or
more already. The median at this point for all 435 representatives is about $400,000.
As of the third quarter of 2007, the DCCC committee had over $20 in the
bank to the NRCC's $2 million. Consequently, Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), chairman
of the NRCC, is looking for rich businessmen who can pay for their
own campaigns. The only problem with that strategy is that historically,
people with no prior political experience rarely get elected to Congress
unless they are already celebrities (think: Heath Schuler in NC-11).
Here are the open House seats.
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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