Jul. 21 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
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Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  

News from the Votemaster

Here are the fund raising figures for the first half of 2007 for the currently announced presidential candidates.

Name Contributions Transfers In Receipts Expenses Debts Cash on Hand Net
Hillary Clinton $53,072,594 $10,000,000 $63,075,927 $17,287,182 $3,026,522 $45,226,832 $42,200,310
Barack Obama $58,610,135 $0 $58,912,520 $22,522,843 $922,848 $36,263,688 $35,340,840
Rudy Giuliani $33,547,792 $1,950,000 $35,629,265 $17,059,700 $0 $18,326,220 $18,326,220
John Edwards $23,059,412 $0 $23,129,158 $9,681,357 $0 $13,343,954 $13,343,954
Bill Richardson $13,262,545 $0 $13,339,633 $6,176,740 $61,104 $7,129,684 $7,068,580
Chris Dodd $7,298,488 $4,739,005 $12,076,091 $5,687,820 $0 $6,378,271 $6,378,271
Mitt Romney $35,044,174 $20,160 $44,432,350 $31,794,921 $8,945,028 $12,121,554 $3,176,526
Joe Biden $4,469,928 $1,900,000 $6,464,270 $3,676,528 $0 $2,772,442 $2,772,442
Ron Paul $3,006,892 $0 $3,009,997 $646,117 $0 $2,354,855 $2,354,855
John McCain $24,945,778 $1,056,002 $26,389,657 $23,059,215 $1,783,523 $3,224,428 $1,440,905
Tom Tancredo $2,777,309 $30,000 $2,808,057 $2,094,818 $15,000 $598,451 $583,451
Sam Brownback $2,710,967 $575,000 $3,296,824 $2,803,271 $0 $460,236 $460,236
Dennis Kucinich $1,115,137 $0 $1,115,604 $901,951 $0 $213,269 $213,269
Duncan Hunter $1,308,707 $36,000 $1,352,941 $1,134,564 $0 $212,927 $212,927
Tommy Thompson $788,111 $0 $889,898 $766,357 $127,434 $121,648 $-5,786
Mike Gravel $175,230 $0 $238,745 $197,604 $64,716 $31,141 $-33,575

The first column of numbers is what the candidates actually raised from contributors. The next one shows what they transfered to their campaign account from other campaign accounts. With small adjustments, we then come to the total receipts, campaign expenses and outstanding debt. One noteworthy item here is Mitt Romney's $9 million debt: he loaned his campaign that money from his $300 million personal fortune. The last two columns show cash in the bank and cash minus the outstanding debt.

The first and last columns are the most important. The first one indicates the amount of interest and buzz a candidate can generate. These numbers are just eye popping when you realize that in the first half of 2003, Howard Dean, John Kerry and John Edwards had each raised amounts in the $10-13 million range. Bush raised much more, but sitting Presidents always raise lots of money. Still, Hillary and Obama each raised more money this year than all the Democrats combined in 2003. I feel sorry for people living in Iowa in January. All television programming is going to be pre-empted so the local stations can run political commercials morning, noon, and night.

One of the more interesting items from this table is that Ron Paul's campaign has a higher net worth than John McCain's. Not that Paul is going to win the nomination, but neither is McCain. He's dead meat at this point. It shows how true Harold Wilson's remark that in politics a week is a long time is. A short time ago, McCain was the front runner. He had a long and distinguished career in the military, was an influential senator, and had a reputation for a guy who told the truth, whether that was popular or not. Now he's dead and gone. What happened? Democrats would like to say that it was his unending support for the war that did him in, but I strongly disagree. The war is still popular with the Base and those are the folks who donate to Republican primary candidates. No, I think it is his position on immigration (for it) that killed him. The Base sees the bill that the Senate killed as amnesty for illegals and is violently against it. From what I have seen, this issue is even more explosive that abortion and homosexuality combined. Look, Giuliani is pro-choice and pro gay rights and is still a viable candidate, in large part because he has been silent on immigration.

Who's missing from this list? Jim Gilmore! He dropped out. You probably didn't notice. Of course Fred Thompson is also missing but that is because he is not an official candidate and is not required to file a financial report with the FEC. Rumor now has it that he will not declare until September, but who knows. He is in the enviable position of traveling around and raising money and signing up advisors while still being under the radar somewhat and not subject to much in the way of scrunity. He understands well enough that a guy who got his girlfriend pregnant in high school and then had a shotgun wedding, followed by a long career (17 years) as a lobbyist for cigarette companies, foreign governments, and pro-abortion groups is going to be in the spotlight later. Better to let the other guys kill each other and then enter the race as the white knight. It might well be that by Sept. the social conservatives are so sick of the current field that they will welcome Thompson with open arms.

Mike Huckabee's data wasn't reported, but in the past his fundraising was comparable to Sam Brownback's.

For the complete fundraising data, see CQ Politics Political Money Line.

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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-- The Votemaster
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