Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 52 Republicans

	Strong Dem (43)
	Weak Dem (2)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (4)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Sep. 07	New polls:	NJ
	Pickups:	Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

The only Senate poll today is Rasmussen's poll of New Jersey, which confirms some other recent polls showing the state senator Tom Kean, Jr. has taken the lead there over appointed incumbent Bob Menendez (D-NJ). If Kean can pull this off, the Democrats have little chance of winning back the Senate, but it is close and has swung back and forth in the past. The state is normally reliably blue though, so we'll see how this develops.

Rasmussen has a surprising poll of the Tennessee Senate race (currently under embargo) that I will report tomorrow.

Fortunately, we have a whole batch of House polls today. House polls are fairly rare because running a poll is expensive and the number of people potentially interested in a single House race is small. However Constitutent Dynamics ran polls of about 1000 people Aug 27-29 in each of a number of competitive House districts. Here are the results. They are continuing to poll, however, and we should have more results tomorrow. For more information about competitive House races, photos of the candidates, maps of the districts, links to the candidates home pages and Wikipedia entries, click on the Hot House races link above or here. An asterisk denotes the incumbent.

Distr	Democrat	Pct	Republican	Pct
CO-04	Paccione	41%	Musgrave*	47%
CO-07	Perlmutter	48%	O'Donnell	46%
CT-02	Courtney	51%	Simmons*	45%
CT-04	Farrell	42%	Shays*	49%
FL-22	Klein	44%	Shaw*	52%
IA-01	Braley	54%	Whalen	41%
IA-03	Boswell*	54%	Lamberti	43%
IL-06	Duckworth	47%	Roskam	46%
KY-04	Lucas	46%	Davis*	49%
IL-08	Bean*	48%	McSweeney	45%
NC-11	Shuler	50%	Taylor*	47%
NM-01	Madrid	45%	Wilson*	48%
NV-03	Hafen	43%	Porter	51%
OH-06	Wilson	56%	Blasdel	40%
PA-06	Murphy	50%	Gerlach	45%
PA-08	Murphy	45%	Fitzpatrick	53%
PA-10	Carney	50%	Sherwood	43%
VA-02	Kellam	51%	Drake	43%
WA-08	Burner	49%	Reichert	46%
WV-01	Mollohan	52%	Wakim	42%

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-- The Votemaster